PGR vs CB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PGR (Progressive) and CB (Chubb) are both leading P&C insurers but serve different markets with different competitive models — Progressive is the auto insurance innovator with telematics-driven pricing and direct-to-consumer distribution, while Chubb is the global commercial and specialty insurer with high-net-worth personal lines and multinational corporate risk capabilities. Progressive is concentrated in personal auto; Chubb is diversified globally.
PGR vs CB is auto insurance technology disruption (Progressive's data science and telematics enabling more accurate risk pricing for personal auto growth) versus global commercial and specialty P&C excellence (Chubb's underwriting discipline and global commercial insurance scope serving corporations and high-net-worth individuals) — focused auto market innovation versus global insurance breadth.
CB holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CB leads on both 1-year return (+24.37%) and forward P/E quality (11.68x vs 13.42x for PGR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, PGR is growing revenue faster (7.30%), while CB maintains the higher operating margin (23.53%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +6.11% for PGR and +7.71% for CB.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the fastest-growing major U.S. auto insurer with a long track record of superior underwriting through data science, telematics, and actuarial innovation
- Value Progressive's Snapshot telematics program as a competitive data advantage that improves risk selection — allowing Progressive to attract lower-risk drivers while avoiding higher-risk ones
- Believe Progressive's technology investment in pricing and distribution provides a durable competitive moat in the large, commoditized personal auto insurance market
- Want the world's largest publicly traded P&C insurer with global commercial insurance capabilities, specialty lines expertise, and high-net-worth personal insurance for wealthy individuals
- Value Chubb's consistently superior underwriting discipline and combined ratios as reflecting a conservative corporate culture that prioritizes long-term profitability over growth at any cost
- Seek global insurance market diversification — Chubb's 54-country presence provides exposure to insurance market growth in Asia, Latin America, and other developing regions alongside its established U.S. and European businesses
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.2 | 52.7 |
| AI ranki | #169 | #379 |
| Latest closei | $213.48 | $340.64 |
| 1M returni | -2.65% | -0.10% |
| 6M returni | +3.63% | +5.60% |
| 1Y returni | -11.91% | +24.37% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.85K (-11.5%) started 2025-09-22 | $12.48K (+24.8%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $25.56K (+155.6%) started 2021-09-22 | $21.46K (+114.6%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $106.92K (+969.2%) started 2016-09-22 | $37.71K (+277.1%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $127.05B | $131.14B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.96 | 12.05 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.42 | 11.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.47 | 2.48 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.00 | $366.13 |
| Target upsidei | +6.11% | +7.71% |
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.30% | 6.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.00% | -0.70% |
| EPS growthi | +5.00% | -0.70% |
| FCF margini | +16.61% | +16.94% |
| Operating margini | 18.21% | 23.53% |
| Profit margini | 12.85% | 18.07% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.94% | 14.82% |
| Return on equityi | 34.94% | 14.82% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.18% | 1.21% |
| Payout ratioi | 69.74% | 13.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| Debt/equityi | 24.43 | 30.94 |
| Current ratioi | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.23 | 0.20 |
Over the past year, PGR and CB have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -11.47% | +24.78% |
| CAGRi | -11.53% | +24.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.31% | 19.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.48 | 1.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.62 | 1.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.90% | 9.62% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.55% | 6.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.46% | 3.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.48% | 4.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.43% | 3.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.88% | 5.66% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +143.35% | +103.12% |
| CAGRi | +19.48% | +15.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.64% | 20.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 0.84 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 19.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.67% | 6.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.05% | 5.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.47% | 7.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 7.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.83% | 9.23% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +745.82% | +215.24% |
| CAGRi | +23.81% | +12.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.04% | 23.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.15 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 42.59% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.67% | 6.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.12% | 7.23% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.84% | 10.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 16.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.56% | 24.86% |
| Category | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Progressive Corporation | Chubb Limited |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Insurance - Property & Casualty |
| Core business | Progressive is the third-largest U.S. auto insurer by premium volume and one of the fastest-growing — known for insurance comparison technology (Snapshot telematics, rate comparison tools), direct-to-consumer distribution (online and phone), independent agent channel, and data-driven underwriting that uses driving behavior data to price risk more accurately than traditional actuarial methods. | Chubb is the world's largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer — providing commercial insurance (property, casualty, marine, workers' compensation), personal insurance for high-net-worth individuals (private client group), specialty insurance (professional liability, cyber), and accident and health insurance globally across 54 countries. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Progressive's combined ratio (claims and expenses as a percentage of premiums — below 100% is profitable underwriting), premium growth rate, policies in force, and Snapshot telematics adoption as a competitive advantage in risk selection. | Investors track Chubb's combined ratio (typically one of the best in the industry), premium growth across commercial and personal lines, catastrophe loss experience, reserve development, capital management, and the diversification of its global commercial portfolio. |
- Actuarial and data science leadership — Progressive has a long history of underwriting innovation, building the industry's most sophisticated pricing models that accurately identify and price risk, enabling profitable growth in markets where competitors lose money
- Telematics technology advantage — Progressive's Snapshot program (usage-based insurance tracking driving behavior) gives Progressive data that traditional risk factors (age, gender, location) cannot capture, improving risk selection for lower-cost drivers and avoiding high-risk ones
- Multi-channel distribution combining direct (online, phone) and independent agent distribution gives Progressive the broadest market coverage of any auto insurer
- Underwriting discipline and conservative culture — Chubb consistently achieves combined ratios below industry averages, reflecting decades of underwriting discipline and refusal to write business below adequate pricing
- High-net-worth personal lines differentiation — Chubb's private client division serves wealthy individuals with specialized coverage (fine art, jewelry, luxury homes, automobiles) at premium pricing unavailable in standard personal lines markets
- Global commercial insurance scale — Chubb's multinational corporate insurance capabilities (writing complex risks across dozens of countries) serve large corporations that need global insurance programs from a single carrier
- Auto insurance profitability is cyclical — when claims inflation (medical costs, repair costs, litigation) rises faster than premiums, the industry becomes unprofitable; Progressive's strong actuarial capability helps but doesn't eliminate cyclicality
- Auto repair cost and medical cost inflation — Progressive's combined ratio is sensitive to severity (cost per claim) trends in auto repair, rental, and medical treatment
- Competition from State Farm, Geico (Berkshire), and Allstate requires Progressive to maintain pricing discipline while growing policies — balancing growth with profitability is an ongoing tension
- Catastrophe exposure risk — Chubb has significant property insurance exposure to natural catastrophe events (hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires) that can produce large losses in severe weather years
- Commercial insurance market cycle — Chubb's commercial premiums are tied to the P&C market cycle; soft market conditions create underwriting pressure across the industry
- Cyber insurance volatility — Chubb's growing cyber insurance book is subject to rapidly evolving threat environments; ransomware and data breach frequency can cause unexpected loss emergence in cyber underwriting
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