ALL vs PGR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Allstate and Progressive are both large personal auto insurers, but Allstate leans on a broad agent network and diversified product mix while Progressive relies on a direct-to-consumer model powered by telematics pricing.
Allstate offers a diversified, agent-driven insurance franchise recovering its underwriting margins, while Progressive offers a data-driven, direct distribution growth story with a strong track record of combined ratio discipline. The choice comes down to whether you favor Allstate's diversification or Progressive's pricing precision and growth momentum.
ALL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ALL leads on both 1-year return (+32.47%) and forward P/E quality (9.01x vs 13.42x for PGR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ALL leads on both revenue growth (11.80%) and operating margin (22.83%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +6.35% for ALL and +6.11% for PGR.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a diversified personal lines insurer with a broad agent network
- Believe ongoing rate actions will continue to support underwriting margin recovery
- Value a mix of auto and homeowners exposure across many local markets
- Are comfortable with periodic catastrophe-driven earnings volatility
- Want exposure to a telematics-driven, direct-to-consumer auto insurance leader
- Believe data-based pricing gives durable underwriting advantages over time
- Value a track record of disciplined combined ratio management through growth cycles
- Are comfortable with newer catastrophe exposure as the homeowners business expands
| Metric | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 56.0 | 63.0 |
| AI ranki | #229 | #164 |
| Latest closei | $255.91 | $229.31 |
| 1M returni | +12.44% | +11.59% |
| 3M returni | -2.05% | +6.28% |
| 6M returni | +19.47% | +13.53% |
| 1Y returni | +32.47% | +4.66% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.25K (+32.5%) started 2025-10-27 | $10.59K (+5.9%) started 2025-10-27 |
| 5Y ago | $24.58K (+145.8%) started 2021-10-27 | $26.74K (+167.4%) started 2021-10-27 |
| 10Y ago | $56.46K (+464.6%) started 2016-10-27 | $113.47K (+1034.7%) started 2016-10-27 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $64.02B | $127.05B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 5.07 | 10.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.01 | 13.42 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.97 | 1.47 |
| Analyst targeti | $269.27 | $232.00 |
| Target upsidei | +6.35% | +6.11% |
| Metric | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.80% | 7.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 61.20% | 5.00% |
| EPS growthi | +61.20% | +5.00% |
| FCF margini | +21.61% | +16.61% |
| Operating margini | 22.83% | 18.21% |
| Profit margini | 18.97% | 12.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 46.11% | 34.94% |
| Return on equityi | 46.11% | 34.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.71% | 0.18% |
| Payout ratioi | 8.32% | 69.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 2 yrs |
| Betai | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Debt/equityi | 22.26 | 24.43 |
| Current ratioi | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.24 | 0.23 |
Over the past year, ALL and PGR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.71), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +32.46% | +5.87% |
| CAGRi | +32.59% | +5.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.36% | 27.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.07 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.54 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 19.36% | 19.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.98% | 2.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.43% | 9.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.29% | 11.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.50% | 9.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.45% | 11.88% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +124.05% | +154.85% |
| CAGRi | +17.51% | +20.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.19% | 25.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.81 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.35% | 34.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.98% | 21.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.21% | 9.54% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.64% | 13.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.90% | 13.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 12.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +358.22% | +797.63% |
| CAGRi | +16.45% | +24.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.47% | 25.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.82 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 1.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.39% | 34.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.98% | 21.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.80% | 7.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.81% | 11.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.09% | 13.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.74% | 13.56% |
| Category | ALL | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Allstate Corporation | Progressive Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Insurance - Property & Casualty |
| Core business | A major personal lines insurer offering auto, home, and other property and casualty coverage through a network of agents and direct channels across the United States. | A leading personal auto insurer known for its direct-to-consumer model and usage-based telematics pricing, alongside a growing homeowners and commercial auto business. |
| Investor focus | Combined ratio trends across auto and homeowners lines, premium rate increases working through the book, and progress on expense reduction initiatives. | Policy growth momentum, telematics-driven underwriting accuracy, and how the combined ratio holds up as the company scales its direct and agency channels. |
- Broad agent-based distribution network gives it deep relationships across many local markets
- Diversified product mix spanning auto, homeowners, and other insurance lines spreads underwriting risk
- Ongoing rate actions and underwriting discipline have supported margin recovery after a period of elevated claims costs
- Telematics-based pricing gives it a data advantage in matching premiums to individual driver risk
- Low-cost direct distribution model supports competitive pricing and consistent policy growth
- Track record of underwriting discipline has kept the combined ratio favorable relative to many peers
- Homeowners results are exposed to catastrophe losses from severe weather events that can swing quarterly earnings
- Auto insurance profitability depends on pricing keeping pace with vehicle repair and medical cost inflation
- Faces intensifying competition from direct-to-consumer insurers with lower distribution costs
- Rapid policy growth can pressure underwriting margins if pricing does not keep pace with claims severity
- Auto insurance demand and profitability are sensitive to used car prices and repair cost trends
- Homeowners expansion introduces catastrophe exposure that is a newer risk for the company to manage
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