VOYA vs LNC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
VOYA and LNC are financial services companies in very different positions. Voya has strategically simplified to workplace retirement and benefits — a predictable, growing business with sticky employer relationships and manageable risk. Lincoln National is navigating legacy liabilities from variable annuity guarantees and long-term care insurance that created significant capital stress in 2022-2023. Voya represents the cleaner, more predictable financial services business; LNC is a recovery/turnaround story with more financial risk.
VOYA vs LNC — Voya Financial (workplace retirement and benefits specialist with $700B+ defined contribution AUM after exiting complex insurance products, growing health/voluntary benefits platform) versus Lincoln National (life insurance and annuity company managing legacy variable annuity guarantee liabilities and long-term care reserves with de-risking transition underway).
VOYA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VOYA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+28.18% vs +1.21%), though LNC has the better forward P/E setup (4.99x vs 8.94x for VOYA). On fundamentals, LNC is growing revenue faster (12.60%), while VOYA maintains the higher operating margin (5.38%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LNC (+10.69%) than for VOYA (+6.41%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want clean, predictable retirement services exposure without complex insurance balance sheet risks — Voya's exit from variable annuities removed the primary earnings volatility source
- value workplace retirement plan stickiness — employer 401k/403b plan contracts provide multi-year AUM stability without the distribution cycle of retail financial products
- are positive on health and voluntary benefits expansion as employers add more benefit categories through single providers — Voya's benefits platform benefits from bundling economics
- prefer Voya's smaller and simpler business model over Lincoln's more complex and leveraged insurance balance sheet
- see a potential recovery in Lincoln National after 2022-2023 capital stress — if reserve adequacy proves sufficient and de-risking succeeds, Lincoln's valuation discount could close significantly
- believe fixed indexed annuity growth is a structural tailwind — baby boomer retirement savings needs create demand for products Lincoln sells, even as LNC repositions away from variable guarantees
- are comfortable with financial holding company balance sheet complexity and can assess Lincoln's reserve adequacy and capital ratios independently for a contrarian recovery thesis
- value Lincoln's group benefits stability as a predictable earnings contribution alongside the more volatile legacy insurance liabilities that represent the primary risk
| Metric | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 47.5 | 27.1 |
| AI ranki | #588 | #2359 |
| Latest closei | $95.12 | $40.01 |
| 1M returni | -7.15% | -7.90% |
| 3M returni | -5.44% | -4.47% |
| 6M returni | +30.64% | +11.57% |
| 1Y returni | +28.18% | +1.21% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.26K (+32.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.52K (+5.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $13.75K (+37.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $5.5K (-45.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $31.54K (+215.4%) started 2016-10-17 | $8.2K (-18.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.2B | $8.29B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.13 | 3.65 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.94 | 4.99 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.76 | -1.50 |
| Analyst targeti | $108.08 | $47.92 |
| Target upsidei | +6.41% | +10.69% |
| Metric | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -4.30% | 12.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -41.60% | 76.80% |
| EPS growthi | -41.60% | +76.80% |
| FCF margini | +17.55% | +10.67% |
| Operating margini | 5.38% | 4.61% |
| Profit margini | 7.45% | 12.17% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.61% | 22.59% |
| Return on equityi | 9.61% | 22.59% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.85% | 4.16% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.31% | 15.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Debt/equityi | 68.91 | 63.80 |
| Current ratioi | 5.67 | 2.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.70 | 1.15 |
Over the past year, VOYA and LNC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.65), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +32.61% | +5.18% |
| CAGRi | +32.67% | +5.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.38% | 33.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.07 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.51 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.09% | 29.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.29% | 14.87% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.32% | 13.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.31% | 15.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.36% | 10.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.49% | 14.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +37.48% | -45.01% |
| CAGRi | +6.58% | -11.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.84% | 42.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.32% | 74.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.29% | 47.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.46% | 49.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.30% | 52.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.51% | 33.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.12% | 38.26% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +215.38% | -18.05% |
| CAGRi | +12.18% | -1.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.00% | 46.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.56 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.28% | 80.14% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.29% | 53.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.33% | 40.56% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.99% | 46.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.44% | 33.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.53% | 43.24% |
| Category | VOYA | LNC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Voya Financial Inc. | Lincoln National Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Conglomerates | Insurance - Life |
| Core business | Voya Financial focuses on workplace benefits and retirement savings — workplace defined contribution retirement plans (401k, 403b, 457 plans), health and voluntary benefits (vision, dental, disability, supplemental health for employers), and investment management for institutional and retail clients. Voya exited variable annuities and individual life insurance in 2018-2020 to focus on the workplace benefits market where it has a strong competitive position. Voya's retirement business manages $700B+ in defined contribution plan assets for millions of US workers — a sticky, recurring fee business from employer retirement plan contracts. | Lincoln National is a life insurance and annuity company providing individual life insurance (universal life, term life, variable life), annuities (fixed, fixed indexed, variable annuities for retirement income), group benefits (employer-provided life, disability, dental), and retail retirement solutions. Lincoln faced significant financial stress in 2022-2023 from long-term care insurance reserves, interest rate impacts on variable annuity guarantee obligations, and a significant capital action (secondary stock offering). Lincoln has been restructuring its product mix away from higher-risk variable annuity guarantees toward fixed annuities and protection products. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Voya's workplace retirement fee revenue growth, health and voluntary benefits sales, investment management performance, and capital return through buybacks as Voya simplifies its business. | Investors focus on Lincoln's reserve adequacy for long-term care and variable annuity guarantees, capital actions and solvency ratios, progress on simplifying and de-risking the business model, and dividend sustainability after a significant cut in 2022. |
- Workplace retirement focus with sticky employer contracts: defined contribution plans have very low termination rates — once a company installs Voya as its 401k provider, the relationship lasts years to decades
- Health and voluntary benefits growth: adding dental, vision, disability, and supplemental health to workplace retirement creates a broader benefits platform capturing more of the employer benefit spend per customer
- Simplified business model after exiting variable annuities: Voya's exit from complex insurance products reduces earnings volatility and capital requirements — the remaining business is more predictable and capital-efficient
- Annuity market positioning in fixed indexed annuities: fixed indexed annuities (FIA) provide principal protection with market-linked upside — growing rapidly as baby boomers seek retirement income with downside protection
- Group benefits business provides stability: Lincoln's employer group benefits (life, disability, dental) generate more stable insurance revenue vs the complex variable annuity business
- Lower valuation reflects stress already priced in: Lincoln's 2022-2023 capital challenges have significantly reduced the stock price — potential recovery if de-risking succeeds
- Smaller scale vs large retirement competitors (Fidelity, Vanguard, Empower): Voya competes with vastly larger retirement plan providers — scale advantages in administration, investment management, and participant engagement tools may disadvantage Voya for the largest employers
- Fee compression in retirement plan management: retirement plan fees have declined under DOL fiduciary rules and plan sponsor cost scrutiny — long-term pricing headwinds for all retirement plan managers
- Investment management performance risk: Voya's investment management subsidiary must deliver competitive returns to retain assets — underperformance creates outflows and AUM fee revenue reduction
- Variable annuity guarantee legacy liabilities: Lincoln sold variable annuities with guaranteed income benefits that become liabilities when equity markets decline or interest rates fall — these long-duration obligations create significant balance sheet risk
- Dividend cut and capital adequacy uncertainty: Lincoln cut its dividend significantly in 2022 and conducted a dilutive secondary stock offering — confidence in capital adequacy is lower than pre-2022 for many investors
- Long-term care reserve uncertainty: long-term care insurance claims develop over decades — reserve adequacy cannot be confirmed until claims occur, creating ongoing balance sheet risk for companies with LTC exposure
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