PGR vs AIG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PGR and AIG are both property and casualty insurers writing very different risks. Progressive writes millions of small personal auto policies, where pricing sophistication and claims cost inflation determine results. AIG writes large commercial and specialty risks, where the pricing cycle, catastrophe losses, and reserve adequacy determine results. Frequency-driven retail against severity-driven commercial.
Use this PGR vs AIG comparison to compare how quickly each can correct a mistake. Personal auto reprices in months, so Progressive can restore margins relatively fast when claims costs rise. Commercial and specialty policies are longer-tailed and harder to re-rate quickly, so errors at AIG take longer to surface and longer to fix.
AIG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AIG leads on both 1-year return (-4.79%) and forward P/E quality (8.57x vs 13.42x for PGR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, PGR is growing revenue faster (7.30%), while AIG maintains the higher operating margin (19.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AIG (+17.48%) than for PGR (+6.11%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a proven market share gainer in personal auto
- Value data-driven segmentation as a durable pricing advantage
- Prefer short-tail lines that can be repriced quickly
- Accept claims inflation risk and growing homeowners catastrophe exposure
- Want global commercial and specialty insurance exposure
- Believe the improvement in underwriting discipline is durable
- Value a simplified structure and substantial buybacks
- Accept commercial pricing cycles, catastrophe volatility, and reserve uncertainty
| Metric | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.1 | 41.1 |
| AI ranki | #145 | #983 |
| Latest closei | $205.50 | $74.17 |
| 1M returni | -7.64% | -3.64% |
| 6M returni | +3.35% | +1.67% |
| 1Y returni | -14.37% | -4.79% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.49K (-15.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.62K (-3.8%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $24.97K (+149.7%) started 2021-09-27 | $15.26K (+52.6%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $103.08K (+930.8%) started 2016-09-26 | $20.07K (+100.7%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $127.05B | $39.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.96 | 13.75 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.42 | 8.57 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.47 | 1.42 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.00 | $88.50 |
| Target upsidei | +6.11% | +17.48% |
| Metric | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.30% | 0.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.00% | -10.10% |
| EPS growthi | +5.00% | -10.10% |
| FCF margini | +16.61% | +27.54% |
| Operating margini | 18.21% | 19.41% |
| Profit margini | 12.85% | 11.09% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.94% | 7.22% |
| Return on equityi | 34.94% | 7.22% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.18% | 2.65% |
| Payout ratioi | 69.74% | 33.76% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 24.43 | 22.47 |
| Current ratioi | 0.29 | 0.61 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.23 | 0.22 |
Over the past year, PGR and AIG have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -15.15% | -3.80% |
| CAGRi | -15.17% | -3.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.45% | 24.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.63 | -0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.81 | -0.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.90% | 16.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.78% | 14.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.67% | 9.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.62% | 10.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.43% | 7.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.88% | 12.19% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +137.76% | +40.74% |
| CAGRi | +18.93% | +7.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.68% | 25.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 26.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.41% | 15.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.13% | 8.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.57% | 10.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 8.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.83% | 17.02% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +715.51% | +58.17% |
| CAGRi | +23.36% | +4.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.06% | 32.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.79 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.12 | 0.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 69.58% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.41% | 15.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.16% | 14.56% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.90% | 20.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 20.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.56% | 41.36% |
| Category | PGR | AIG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Progressive Corporation | American International Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Insurance - Diversified |
| Core business | One of the largest US personal auto insurers, selling directly and through agents, with growing homeowners and commercial auto lines. Its edge is data-driven risk segmentation and pricing, including usage-based telematics. | Global commercial and specialty property and casualty insurer covering large corporate risks, specialty lines, and personal insurance for high net worth clients, following an extended restructuring and the separation of its life and retirement business. |
| Investor focus | Policies in force growth, combined ratio, rate adequacy versus claims cost inflation, advertising spend efficiency, and homeowners catastrophe losses. | Underwriting margin and combined ratio, commercial rate environment, reinsurance strategy, catastrophe losses, expense reduction, and buybacks. |
- Superior risk segmentation lets it price competitively while maintaining underwriting margins
- Direct channel plus agency distribution reaches both price shoppers and advised buyers
- Has repeatedly taken market share when competitors were forced to raise rates
- Global commercial franchise able to underwrite complex large-scale risks few competitors can
- Underwriting discipline has improved substantially from its historically poor record
- Simplified structure after separating life and retirement, funding large buybacks
- Claims cost inflation in repairs, parts, and medical costs can outpace approved rate increases
- Homeowners exposure brings catastrophe losses that auto insurance does not
- Growth requires heavy advertising, which pressures margins when it accelerates
- Commercial property and casualty pricing is cyclical and softens when capital is plentiful
- Catastrophe and large loss volatility is inherent to commercial and specialty lines
- Reserve adequacy on long-tail liability lines is a perennial question for commercial insurers
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