CMG vs TXRH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CMG and TXRH are both high-performing restaurant operators with different formats and cost exposures. Chipotle is fast casual, with high throughput, modest footprints, and growth from openings, digital orders, and pricing. Texas Roadhouse is casual dining, with growth driven unusually by guest traffic rather than price, a value positioning that protects visits but leaves margin exposed to beef cost inflation.
Use this CMG vs TXRH comparison to examine how each company achieves comparable sales growth. Traffic-led growth, as at Texas Roadhouse, is generally higher quality than price-led growth because it signals genuine demand rather than menu inflation. The trade-off is that its deliberate pricing restraint transmits commodity cost swings straight into margins.
CMG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TXRH leads on both 1-year return (-1.24%) and forward P/E quality (24.50x vs 27.78x for CMG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TXRH is growing revenue faster (11.10%), while CMG maintains the higher operating margin (16.11%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +14.84% for CMG and +14.25% for TXRH.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want fast-casual growth with high throughput and strong restaurant-level margins
- Value digital ordering as a structural volume driver
- Believe unit growth and international expansion have a long runway
- Accept a premium valuation and minimal dividend
- Value traffic-led comparable sales growth as a sign of real demand
- Want a growing dividend alongside continued unit expansion
- Believe the value positioning holds up well when consumers trade down
- Accept beef cost volatility as the main margin risk
| Metric | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.2 | 47.8 |
| AI ranki | #420 | #581 |
| Latest closei | $31.33 | $159.75 |
| 1M returni | -16.10% | -21.65% |
| 6M returni | +1.52% | -0.27% |
| 1Y returni | -20.78% | -1.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.97K (-20.3%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.8K (-2.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $8.25K (-17.5%) started 2021-09-27 | $16.72K (+67.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $37.31K (+273.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $38.49K (+284.9%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $12.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 30.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 24.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 2.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $218.09 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +14.25% |
| Metric | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | -0.50% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | -0.50% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +3.79% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 8.51% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 6.63% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | 27.71% |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | 27.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.57% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 45.76% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.80 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | 68.84 |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.35 |
Over the past year, CMG and TXRH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.34% | -2.00% |
| CAGRi | -20.37% | -2.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.34% | 30.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.56 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 25.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.04% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.66% | 7.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.50% | 9.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 6.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 10.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.53% | +67.24% |
| CAGRi | -3.79% | +10.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 30.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.09 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 27.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.94% | 8.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.45% | 11.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 14.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 24.97% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +273.08% | +284.94% |
| CAGRi | +14.08% | +14.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.21% | 35.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 59.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.75% | 12.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.01% | 15.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 15.30% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 29.18% |
| Category | CMG | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Company-operated fast-casual Mexican chain growing through new openings, digital ordering, throughput improvements, and menu pricing, with no franchising in its core market. | Casual dining steakhouse chain built on a value proposition of large portions at moderate prices, operating mostly company-owned restaurants with high average volumes and consistently strong guest traffic. |
| Investor focus | Comparable sales and transaction counts, restaurant-level margin, unit growth, and food and labour inflation. | Traffic-led comparable sales, beef cost inflation, restaurant-level margin, new unit openings, and dividend growth. |
- High throughput format generates strong sales per restaurant with modest square footage
- Digital ordering and dedicated make-lines add volume without proportional labour
- Long remaining unit growth runway plus early international expansion
- Growth has been driven by guest traffic rather than price increases, an unusually healthy mix in restaurants
- Very high average unit volumes for casual dining, with long wait times signalling genuine demand
- Pays a growing dividend alongside continued unit expansion
- Premium valuation makes any traffic slowdown costly for the shares
- Food safety remains a genuine tail risk given company history
- Price increases risk pushing value-sensitive customers away
- Beef is a large and volatile input cost that is difficult to hedge for long periods
- Deliberately restrained menu pricing protects traffic but compresses margin when costs rise
- Large-format casual dining restaurants carry higher build costs and longer payback than fast casual
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