CMG vs DPZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and Domino's both lead their respective restaurant categories, but Chipotle owns and operates its fast-casual locations directly to control quality and growth, while Domino's franchises the vast majority of its pizza delivery and carryout stores globally, relying on royalties and a supply chain business for revenue.
Chipotle offers exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual concept with proven unit economics, while Domino's offers exposure to an asset-light global pizza franchise leader with industry-leading digital ordering infrastructure. Consider whether you prefer Chipotle's direct-control growth model or Domino's capital-light franchise scale.
CMG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-11.56% vs -26.90%), though DPZ has the better forward P/E setup (16.77x vs 27.78x for CMG). On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while DPZ maintains the higher operating margin (19.08%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+14.84%) than for DPZ (+8.65%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual restaurant concept
- Believe strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure supports continued sales growth
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for proven new restaurant unit economics
- Prefer direct operational control over franchise-model capital efficiency
- Want exposure to an asset-light, globally franchised pizza delivery and carryout leader
- Believe industry-leading digital ordering technology supports durable competitive advantage
- Value the additional revenue diversification from the supply chain business
- Prefer capital-light franchise economics over company-owned restaurant capital intensity
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.7 | 37.2 |
| AI ranki | #410 | #1394 |
| Latest closei | $36.96 | $341.08 |
| 1M returni | +7.13% | -6.96% |
| 6M returni | -0.27% | -15.30% |
| 1Y returni | -11.56% | -26.90% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.93K (-10.7%) started 2025-09-04 | $7.37K (-26.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.75K (-2.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $7.3K (-27.0%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $44.63K (+346.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $27.47K (+174.7%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 19.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 16.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 3.29 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $380.29 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +8.65% |
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 6.80% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +6.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 19.08% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 11.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.27% |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, CMG and DPZ have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.75% | -26.27% |
| CAGRi | -10.76% | -26.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.78% | 29.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | -1.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | -1.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 39.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.75% | 26.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.87% | 19.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.93% | 21.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 10.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -2.47% | -30.46% |
| CAGRi | -0.50% | -7.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.74% | 29.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | -0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | -0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 36.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.98% | 25.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.34% | 28.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 17.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +346.30% | +149.23% |
| CAGRi | +16.14% | +9.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.19% | 30.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 36.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.51% | 16.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.71% | 20.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 17.76% |
| Category | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Domino's Pizza, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain that operates company-owned locations serving customizable Mexican-inspired food made with a focus on fresh ingredients, relying on unit growth and digital ordering rather than franchising. | A global pizza delivery and carryout franchisor that operates a heavily digital-first ordering model, generating revenue through franchise royalties, supply chain sales to franchisees, and a smaller base of company-owned stores. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales growth, new restaurant unit economics, and digital and delivery order penetration as a share of total sales. | Global same-store sales growth, digital order penetration, and supply chain segment profitability as a source of diversified revenue beyond royalties. |
- Company-owned restaurant model provides direct control over food quality, service consistency, and brand experience
- Strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure captures a significant share of sales through convenient channels
- Proven new restaurant unit economics support a long runway for continued store count growth
- Industry-leading digital ordering infrastructure drives a large share of sales through convenient app and online channels
- Supply chain business selling ingredients and supplies to franchisees provides an additional high-visibility revenue stream
- Asset-light franchise model requires far less capital per new unit compared to company-owned restaurant expansion
- Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for each new restaurant, unlike asset-light franchise models
- Valuation reflects high growth expectations, leaving less room for error if same-store sales decelerate
- Limited menu and format concentration means results are more exposed to shifts in fast-casual dining preferences
- Concentrated pizza delivery focus makes results more sensitive to shifts in delivery competition and aggregator platforms
- US same-store sales growth has been more challenged in recent periods amid market saturation concerns
- Franchise model provides less direct control over individual store execution compared to a company-owned model
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