CMG vs DPZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and Domino's both lead their respective restaurant categories, but Chipotle owns and operates its fast-casual locations directly to control quality and growth, while Domino's franchises the vast majority of its pizza delivery and carryout stores globally, relying on royalties and a supply chain business for revenue.
Chipotle offers exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual concept with proven unit economics, while Domino's offers exposure to an asset-light global pizza franchise leader with industry-leading digital ordering infrastructure. Consider whether you prefer Chipotle's direct-control growth model or Domino's capital-light franchise scale.
DPZ holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DPZ leads on both 1-year return (-26.18%) and forward P/E quality (16.77x vs 27.78x for CMG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while DPZ maintains the higher operating margin (19.08%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+14.84%) than for DPZ (+8.65%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual restaurant concept
- Believe strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure supports continued sales growth
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for proven new restaurant unit economics
- Prefer direct operational control over franchise-model capital efficiency
- Want exposure to an asset-light, globally franchised pizza delivery and carryout leader
- Believe industry-leading digital ordering technology supports durable competitive advantage
- Value the additional revenue diversification from the supply chain business
- Prefer capital-light franchise economics over company-owned restaurant capital intensity
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.9 | 37.6 |
| AI ranki | #447 | #1389 |
| Latest closei | $27.52 | $313.61 |
| 1M returni | -15.87% | +5.80% |
| 3M returni | -13.43% | -5.81% |
| 6M returni | -19.56% | -14.74% |
| 1Y returni | -33.86% | -26.18% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.58K (-34.2%) started 2025-10-23 | $7.44K (-25.6%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $7.75K (-22.5%) started 2021-10-25 | $7.37K (-26.3%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $33.29K (+232.9%) started 2016-10-24 | $22.66K (+126.6%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 19.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 16.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 3.29 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $380.29 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +8.65% |
| Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 6.80% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +6.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 19.08% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 11.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 42.48% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, CMG and DPZ have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -34.16% | -25.64% |
| CAGRi | -34.20% | -25.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.03% | 31.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.86 | -0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.11 | -1.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.16% | 35.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.16% | 28.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.68% | 17.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.13% | 20.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 10.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -22.48% | -29.64% |
| CAGRi | -4.97% | -6.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.14% | 30.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.10 | -0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.14 | -0.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.86% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.86% | 41.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.25% | 26.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.03% | 28.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 17.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +232.89% | +106.14% |
| CAGRi | +12.78% | +7.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.32% | 30.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.86% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.86% | 41.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.00% | 16.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.48% | 21.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 17.76% |
| Category | CMG | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Domino's Pizza, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain that operates company-owned locations serving customizable Mexican-inspired food made with a focus on fresh ingredients, relying on unit growth and digital ordering rather than franchising. | A global pizza delivery and carryout franchisor that operates a heavily digital-first ordering model, generating revenue through franchise royalties, supply chain sales to franchisees, and a smaller base of company-owned stores. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales growth, new restaurant unit economics, and digital and delivery order penetration as a share of total sales. | Global same-store sales growth, digital order penetration, and supply chain segment profitability as a source of diversified revenue beyond royalties. |
- Company-owned restaurant model provides direct control over food quality, service consistency, and brand experience
- Strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure captures a significant share of sales through convenient channels
- Proven new restaurant unit economics support a long runway for continued store count growth
- Industry-leading digital ordering infrastructure drives a large share of sales through convenient app and online channels
- Supply chain business selling ingredients and supplies to franchisees provides an additional high-visibility revenue stream
- Asset-light franchise model requires far less capital per new unit compared to company-owned restaurant expansion
- Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for each new restaurant, unlike asset-light franchise models
- Valuation reflects high growth expectations, leaving less room for error if same-store sales decelerate
- Limited menu and format concentration means results are more exposed to shifts in fast-casual dining preferences
- Concentrated pizza delivery focus makes results more sensitive to shifts in delivery competition and aggregator platforms
- US same-store sales growth has been more challenged in recent periods amid market saturation concerns
- Franchise model provides less direct control over individual store execution compared to a company-owned model
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