WING vs DPZ: High-Growth Wings Franchise vs Global Pizza Empire: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wingstop is the higher-growth franchise story with industry-leading comps, an asset-light model, and significant international whitespace. Domino's is the mature global pizza franchise with massive scale, proven technology infrastructure, and consistent capital returns. WING offers the steeper growth curve; DPZ offers the compounding power of a global franchise machine with proven unit economics across 90+ markets.
This WING vs DPZ comparison contrasts two asset-light franchise models at very different stages of maturity. Wingstop is the high-growth compounder with a long development runway; Domino's is the established global platform focused on optimizing an already massive footprint.
WING holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DPZ leads on both 1-year return (-30.92%) and forward P/E quality (16.77x vs 21.10x for WING), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. WING leads on both revenue growth (6.40%) and operating margin (29.76%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WING (+79.30%) than for DPZ (+8.65%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the highest-growth franchise model in the restaurant space with industry-leading same-store sales
- Prefer an asset-light, nearly 100% franchised business with high margins and low capital intensity
- Believe Wingstop's international expansion can replicate its US success in large underpenetrated markets
- Are comfortable with chicken commodity cost volatility as a trade-off for brand momentum
- Want exposure to the world's largest pizza delivery platform with proven global scale
- Value consistent capital returns through dividends and share buybacks funded by franchise cash flow
- Prefer a more mature, lower-volatility franchise compounder with decades of operating history
- Believe Domino's technology and logistics moat will defend its delivery leadership against aggregator competition
| Metric | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.2 | 37.6 |
| AI ranki | #1277 | #1464 |
| Latest closei | $100.84 | $310.82 |
| 1M returni | -20.04% | -10.24% |
| 6M returni | -49.09% | -21.55% |
| 1Y returni | -62.31% | -30.92% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.86K (-61.4%) started 2025-09-16 | $7.03K (-29.7%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $5.46K (-45.4%) started 2021-09-16 | $6.76K (-32.4%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $34.09K (+240.9%) started 2016-09-16 | $24.68K (+146.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.08B | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.89 | 19.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.10 | 16.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.73 | 3.29 |
| Analyst targeti | $202.89 | $380.29 |
| Target upsidei | +79.30% | +8.65% |
| Metric | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.40% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 19.80% | 6.80% |
| EPS growthi | +19.80% | +6.80% |
| FCF margini | +13.68% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | 29.76% | 19.08% |
| Profit margini | 16.15% | 11.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.20% | 2.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 28.37% | 42.29% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.81 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 2.97 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.17 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, WING and DPZ have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.21), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -61.38% | -29.75% |
| CAGRi | -61.46% | -29.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.61% | 30.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.31 | -1.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.83 | -1.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.58% | 36.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.58% | 29.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.62% | 15.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.88% | 18.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.09% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.32% | 10.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -45.42% | -35.43% |
| CAGRi | -11.41% | -8.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.58% | 30.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | -0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.08 | -0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.49% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 76.49% | 42.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.35% | 25.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.44% | 28.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.98% | 17.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +240.91% | +124.56% |
| CAGRi | +13.05% | +8.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.95% | 30.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.60 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.49% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 76.49% | 42.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.94% | 16.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.31% | 21.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.53% | 17.76% |
| Category | WING | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wingstop Inc. | Domino's Pizza, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Asset-light franchisor of chicken wing restaurants with over 2,300 locations globally. Operates a nearly 100% franchised model with digital sales exceeding 65% of revenue. Known for bold flavors and a delivery-heavy ordering mix. | World's largest pizza delivery and carryout company with over 20,000 stores across 90+ markets. Operates a primarily franchised model built on technology-driven ordering, supply chain logistics, and a fortressing store density strategy. |
| Investor focus | Domestic and international same-store sales comps, net new restaurant openings, digital sales penetration, chicken wing cost deflation cycles, and franchise-level AUV trends. | US and international same-store sales comps, net unit growth, delivery versus carryout mix shifts, technology and loyalty platform investments, and capital returns via buybacks and dividends. |
- Nearly 100% franchised model generates high margins with minimal capital expenditure requirements
- Consistent industry-leading same-store sales growth driven by brand strength and digital engagement
- Large international whitespace with early-stage expansion in the UK, Canada, and other markets
- Massive global scale with over 20,000 stores and deep franchise relationships across 90+ countries
- Industry-leading delivery technology and logistics infrastructure create durable competitive advantages
- Consistent capital return program with share buybacks and dividends funded by franchise cash flow
- Chicken wing cost volatility can squeeze franchisee profitability and slow development pipeline
- Premium valuation leaves limited room for same-store sales or unit growth deceleration
- Increasing competition in the chicken category from both QSR chains and fast-casual entrants
- Mature US market with over 6,900 stores faces slowing unit growth and intensifying delivery competition
- International master franchise relationships limit direct control over execution in key growth markets
- Third-party delivery aggregator competition continues to pressure the delivery value proposition
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