DNUT vs DPZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Krispy Kreme is a smaller, still-unprofitable turnaround story valued on its ability to scale distribution profitably, while Domino's is a mature, highly franchised, consistently profitable global pizza leader valued on steady same-store sales growth and cash returns to shareholders. The comparison generally contrasts turnaround potential against durable, proven execution.
This comparison is best used to weigh a higher-risk, earlier-stage restaurant turnaround against a mature, cash-generative franchise leader with a long track record of consistent execution.
DPZ holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DNUT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-6.06% vs -27.40%), though DPZ has the better forward P/E setup (16.77x vs 73.88x for DNUT). DPZ leads on both revenue growth (4.30%) and operating margin (19.08%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DNUT (+21.78%) than for DPZ (+8.65%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe expanded retail distribution can eventually translate into sustained profitability
- Are comfortable with a leveraged balance sheet during the turnaround
- Want exposure to a well-known consumer brand at an early stage of its growth strategy
- Accept higher earnings volatility than an established franchise leader
- Want a proven, capital-light franchise model with consistent free cash flow
- Value a long track record of same-store sales growth
- Prefer steady dividend and buyback-driven shareholder returns
- Are comfortable with slower growth in a mature core market
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 23.4 | 37.3 |
| AI ranki | #3556 | #1373 |
| Latest closei | $3.10 | $303.09 |
| 1M returni | -0.64% | -2.49% |
| 3M returni | -9.09% | -8.06% |
| 6M returni | -12.68% | -17.86% |
| 1Y returni | -6.06% | -27.40% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.39K (-6.1%) started 2025-10-15 | $7.27K (-27.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $2.45K (-75.5%) started 2021-10-15 | $7.22K (-27.8%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $1.62K (-83.8%) started 2021-07-01 | $23.99K (+139.9%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $605.52M | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 19.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 73.88 | 16.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.25 | 3.29 |
| Analyst targeti | $4.25 | $380.29 |
| Target upsidei | +21.78% | +8.65% |
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -12.80% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 6.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +6.80% |
| FCF margini | +1.60% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | -2.04% | 19.08% |
| Profit margini | -6.16% | 11.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | -13.72% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | -13.72% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.47% | 2.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 700.00% | 42.48% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 203.94 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.36 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.24 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, DNUT and DPZ have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.14), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.06% | -27.31% |
| CAGRi | -6.06% | -27.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.11% | 30.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | -1.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.20 | -1.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.94% | 35.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.04% | 30.87% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.08% | 17.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.57% | 20.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.56% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.86% | 10.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -76.66% | -31.06% |
| CAGRi | -25.25% | -7.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.01% | 30.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.31 | -0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.47 | -0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.81% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 82.89% | 43.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.45% | 26.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.33% | 28.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.71% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.66% | 17.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -84.54% | +118.25% |
| CAGRi | -29.74% | +8.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.37% | 30.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.41 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.62 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.18% | 47.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 84.54% | 43.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 49.95% | 16.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.91% | 21.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.71% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.66% | 17.76% |
| Category | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Krispy Kreme | Domino's Pizza |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Grocery Stores | Restaurants |
| Core business | Krispy Kreme makes and sells doughnuts and coffee through its own shops and an expanding network of grocery, convenience, and delivery distribution points. | Domino's Pizza operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants globally, supported by a heavily franchised business model and its own delivery logistics technology. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Krispy Kreme's expansion of retail points of access, margin pressure from that expansion strategy, debt levels, and progress toward sustained profitability. | Investors track Domino's same-store sales growth, franchisee unit economics, delivery aggregator partnerships, and consistent share buyback and dividend activity. |
- Recognizable global brand with expansion into high-traffic retail partner locations
- Asset-light distribution model reducing capital intensity per point of access
- Growing delivery and e-commerce sales channels
- Highly franchised, capital-light business model generating strong free cash flow
- Long track record of consistent same-store sales growth
- Established delivery logistics and technology advantage in the pizza category
- History of inconsistent profitability and margin pressure
- Elevated debt levels relative to earnings
- Execution risk in scaling partner distribution profitably
- Mature U.S. market growth increasingly depends on international expansion
- Franchisee cost pressures from labor and input inflation
- Competitive intensity from delivery aggregators and other quick-service chains
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