DNUT vs DPZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Krispy Kreme is a smaller, still-unprofitable turnaround story valued on its ability to scale distribution profitably, while Domino's is a mature, highly franchised, consistently profitable global pizza leader valued on steady same-store sales growth and cash returns to shareholders. The comparison generally contrasts turnaround potential against durable, proven execution.
This comparison is best used to weigh a higher-risk, earlier-stage restaurant turnaround against a mature, cash-generative franchise leader with a long track record of consistent execution.
DPZ holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DNUT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-3.66% vs -25.36%), though DPZ has the better forward P/E setup (16.77x vs 72.40x for DNUT). DPZ leads on both revenue growth (4.30%) and operating margin (19.08%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DNUT (+24.27%) than for DPZ (+8.65%).
- Believe expanded retail distribution can eventually translate into sustained profitability
- Are comfortable with a leveraged balance sheet during the turnaround
- Want exposure to a well-known consumer brand at an early stage of its growth strategy
- Accept higher earnings volatility than an established franchise leader
- Want a proven, capital-light franchise model with consistent free cash flow
- Value a long track record of same-store sales growth
- Prefer steady dividend and buyback-driven shareholder returns
- Are comfortable with slower growth in a mature core market
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 23.3 | 37.2 |
| AI rank | #3628 | #1394 |
| Latest close | $3.42 | $342.06 |
| 1M return | +7.55% | -1.55% |
| 6M return | -8.80% | -14.78% |
| 1Y return | -3.66% | -25.36% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.24K (+2.4%) started 2025-09-02 | $7.32K (-26.8%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $2.25K (-77.5%) started 2021-08-31 | $7.3K (-27.0%) started 2021-09-01 |
| 10Y ago | $1.79K (-82.1%) started 2021-07-01 | $27.77K (+177.7%) started 2016-09-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $593.37M | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 19.84 |
| Forward P/E | 72.40 | 16.77 |
| Price/Sales | 0.40 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 1.26 | 3.29 |
| Analyst target | $4.25 | $380.29 |
| Target upside | +24.27% | +8.65% |
| Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -12.80% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | 6.80% |
| EPS growth | N/A | +6.80% |
| FCF margin | +1.60% | +10.57% |
| Operating margin | -2.04% | 19.08% |
| Profit margin | -6.16% | 11.86% |
| ROIC proxy | -13.72% | N/A |
| Return on equity | -13.72% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | 3.47% | 2.27% |
| Beta | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equity | 203.94 | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.36 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratio | 0.24 | 0.80 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +2.40% | -26.80% |
| CAGR | +2.41% | -26.94% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | -1.05 | |
| Max drawdown | 37.87% | 39.43% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.56% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.86% | 10.58% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -78.57% | -30.45% |
| CAGR | -26.52% | -7.01% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.34 | -0.24 | |
| Max drawdown | 85.81% | 47.81% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.71% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly drop | 36.66% | 17.76% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -82.95% | +151.91% |
| CAGR | -28.99% | +9.68% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.39 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 87.18% | 47.81% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.71% | 13.57% | |
| Max wkly drop | 36.66% | 17.76% |
| Category | DNUT | DPZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Krispy Kreme | Domino's Pizza |
| Sector | Restaurants / Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Krispy Kreme makes and sells doughnuts and coffee through its own shops and an expanding network of grocery, convenience, and delivery distribution points. | Domino's Pizza operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants globally, supported by a heavily franchised business model and its own delivery logistics technology. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Krispy Kreme's expansion of retail points of access, margin pressure from that expansion strategy, debt levels, and progress toward sustained profitability. | Investors track Domino's same-store sales growth, franchisee unit economics, delivery aggregator partnerships, and consistent share buyback and dividend activity. |
- Recognizable global brand with expansion into high-traffic retail partner locations
- Asset-light distribution model reducing capital intensity per point of access
- Growing delivery and e-commerce sales channels
- Highly franchised, capital-light business model generating strong free cash flow
- Long track record of consistent same-store sales growth
- Established delivery logistics and technology advantage in the pizza category
- History of inconsistent profitability and margin pressure
- Elevated debt levels relative to earnings
- Execution risk in scaling partner distribution profitably
- Mature U.S. market growth increasingly depends on international expansion
- Franchisee cost pressures from labor and input inflation
- Competitive intensity from delivery aggregators and other quick-service chains
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