CELH vs KDP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Celsius Holdings offers concentrated, faster-growing exposure to the functional energy drink category, while Keurig Dr Pepper provides a diversified, more stable beverage portfolio with a consistent dividend.
Investors weighing Celsius against Keurig Dr Pepper are choosing between a higher-growth, single-category beverage brand and a larger, diversified, income-oriented beverage company.
CELH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KDP leads on both 1-year return (+26.92%) and forward P/E quality (12.55x vs 17.94x for CELH), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KDP is growing revenue faster (75.60%), while CELH maintains the higher operating margin (19.09%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CELH (+35.01%) than for KDP (+14.00%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to the functional energy drink category
- Believe in continued growth of Celsius's retail distribution and brand share
- Are comfortable with revenue volatility tied to retailer inventory cycles
- Seek higher growth potential over current income
- Prefer a diversified beverage portfolio across multiple categories
- Value consistent dividend income supported by stable cash flow
- Are comfortable with a slower, more mature growth profile
- Want exposure to both coffee systems and traditional soft drink brands
| Metric | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.7 | 57.1 |
| AI ranki | #100 | #209 |
| Latest closei | $28.16 | $34.18 |
| 1M returni | +1.92% | +8.54% |
| 3M returni | -6.07% | +8.92% |
| 6M returni | -19.20% | +31.26% |
| 1Y returni | -55.37% | +26.92% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.38K (-56.2%) started 2025-10-16 | $12.33K (+23.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.08K (-9.2%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $396.62K (+3866.2%) started 2016-10-17 | $290.5K (+2805.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.93B | $43.22B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 136.17 | 32.08 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.94 | 12.55 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.14 | 4.17 |
| Analyst targeti | $42.29 | $36.21 |
| Target upsidei | +35.01% | +14.00% |
| Metric | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.60% | 75.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -56.90% | -90.00% |
| EPS growthi | -56.90% | -90.00% |
| FCF margini | +11.47% | +22.93% |
| Operating margini | 19.09% | 12.89% |
| Profit margini | 4.24% | 7.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | 5.11% | 5.10% |
| Return on equityi | 5.11% | 5.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.90% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 92.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.92 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 22.80 | 99.65 |
| Current ratioi | 1.80 | 0.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.31 | 0.20 |
Over the past year, CELH and KDP have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -56.20% | +23.30% |
| CAGRi | -56.25% | +23.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.50% | 27.38% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.10 | 0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.42 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.35% | 18.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 56.58% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.07% | 6.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 43.98% | 7.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.80% | 5.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.06% | 8.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -9.18% | +7.10% |
| CAGRi | -1.91% | +1.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.13% | 22.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | -0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.35 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 77.86% | 32.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.70% | 8.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 39.33% | 13.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 45.89% | 15.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.80% | 11.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.80% | 17.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +3866.20% | +193.46% |
| CAGRi | +44.51% | +11.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 69.11% | 24.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.26 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 77.86% | 36.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.70% | 8.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.35% | 9.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.28% | 12.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 39.59% | 16.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.24% | 19.84% |
| Category | CELH | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Celsius Holdings, Inc. | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic |
| Core business | Celsius Holdings makes and markets functional energy drinks positioned around fitness and active lifestyle branding, distributed through a major beverage partner's network. | Keurig Dr Pepper is a diversified beverage company with a portfolio spanning carbonated soft drinks, coffee systems, and other beverage brands sold across retail and food service channels. |
| Investor focus | Watch retail distribution and shelf space growth, category share trends in energy drinks, and the pace of international expansion. | Watch performance across its coffee and beverage segments, pricing trends, and margin management amid input cost changes. |
- Strong brand positioning within the fast-growing functional energy drink category
- Established distribution partnership that supports retail shelf placement
- Growth opportunity through international market expansion
- Diversified portfolio spanning soft drinks, coffee, and other beverage categories
- Established distribution scale and retail relationships across channels
- Consistent dividend-paying track record supported by stable cash flow
- Revenue growth has shown sensitivity to retailer inventory and distribution timing
- Smaller scale and single-category focus relative to diversified beverage peers
- Competitive intensity in the energy drink category from larger beverage companies
- Slower overall growth profile relative to faster-growing beverage category peers
- Exposure to shifting consumer preferences away from traditional soft drinks
- Input cost and pricing pressures can affect margins across the portfolio
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