PEP vs KDP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper both compete in beverages, but PepsiCo operates a much broader global portfolio spanning snacks and beverages, while Keurig Dr Pepper is a more North America-focused pure-play beverage company anchored by its Keurig coffee systems and carbonated soft drink brands.
PepsiCo offers global diversification across snacks and beverages, while Keurig Dr Pepper offers a more concentrated North American beverage bet anchored by its differentiated coffee systems business. Consider whether you prefer PepsiCo's diversified global scale or Keurig Dr Pepper's focused beverage and coffee systems positioning.
KDP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KDP leads on both 1-year return (+26.62%) and forward P/E quality (13.68x vs 15.71x for PEP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KDP is growing revenue faster (75.60%), while PEP maintains the higher operating margin (16.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PEP (+9.87%) than for KDP (+4.58%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a diversified global snacks and beverage portfolio
- Believe diversification across categories reduces reliance on any single demand cycle
- Value a long dividend growth history supported by global scale
- Are comfortable with North American beverage volume pressure from shifting health preferences
- Want concentrated exposure to North American beverages including a differentiated coffee systems business
- Believe the Keurig single-serve platform provides a durable competitive advantage
- Value diversification between soft drinks and coffee within a focused beverage portfolio
- Are comfortable with limited international diversification relative to larger global beverage peers
| Metric | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.4 | 54.0 |
| AI ranki | #1017 | #299 |
| Latest closei | $135.77 | $34.68 |
| 1M returni | +4.29% | +9.19% |
| 3M returni | -0.64% | +16.85% |
| 6M returni | -12.65% | +18.69% |
| 1Y returni | -11.28% | +26.62% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.96K (-10.4%) started 2025-10-23 | $12.59K (+25.9%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $10.5K (+5.0%) started 2021-10-25 | $11.99K (+19.9%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $21.53K (+115.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $292.58K (+2825.8%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $192.7B | $47.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.32 | 34.97 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.71 | 13.68 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.95 | 2.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.43 | 4.37 |
| Analyst targeti | $155.00 | $36.21 |
| Target upsidei | +9.87% | +4.58% |
| Metric | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.40% | 75.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 137.00% | -90.00% |
| EPS growthi | +137.00% | -90.00% |
| FCF margini | +8.08% | +22.93% |
| Operating margini | 16.84% | 12.89% |
| Profit margini | 10.79% | 7.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | 51.51% | 5.10% |
| Return on equityi | 51.51% | 5.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.20% | 2.66% |
| Payout ratioi | 73.02% | 92.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 238.95 | 99.65 |
| Current ratioi | 0.93 | 0.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.20 |
Over the past year, PEP and KDP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.48), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.39% | +25.88% |
| CAGRi | -10.40% | +25.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.22% | 27.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.63 | 0.81 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.89 | 1.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.43% | 18.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.36% | 1.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.48% | 6.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.72% | 7.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.37% | 5.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.57% | 8.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -5.59% | +9.68% |
| CAGRi | -1.15% | +1.87% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.13% | 22.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.28 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.88% | 32.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.35% | 7.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.18% | 13.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.94% | 15.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.20% | 11.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.25% | 17.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +62.36% | +195.56% |
| CAGRi | +4.97% | +11.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.03% | 24.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.17 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.88% | 36.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.35% | 7.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.27% | 9.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.43% | 12.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.43% | 16.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.45% | 19.84% |
| Category | PEP | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | PepsiCo, Inc. | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic |
| Core business | A global food and beverage company with a diversified portfolio spanning snacks, beverages, and packaged foods sold across both developed and emerging markets worldwide. | A beverage company with a portfolio spanning carbonated soft drinks, coffee systems, and other beverages sold primarily in North America through retail and single-serve coffee brewing systems. |
| Investor focus | Organic revenue growth balancing snacks and beverage segments, international market performance, and pricing actions relative to input cost inflation. | Coffee systems segment pod and brewer sales trends, carbonated soft drink volume and pricing, and margin trends across its beverage portfolio. |
- Diversified portfolio spanning snacks and beverages reduces reliance on any single category's demand cycle
- Global scale supports significant investment in marketing, innovation, and distribution across many markets
- Long dividend growth history reflects consistent free cash flow generation across economic cycles
- Keurig single-serve coffee system provides a differentiated, higher-margin business relative to traditional beverage peers
- Diversified beverage portfolio spanning soft drinks and coffee reduces reliance on any single category
- Strong North American distribution relationships support broad retail shelf presence
- Beverage volume growth in North America has faced pressure from shifting consumer preferences toward healthier options
- Input cost inflation across ingredients and packaging can pressure margins between pricing cycles
- Faces competition from both branded beverage and snack peers and private label alternatives
- Coffee systems segment faces competition from other single-serve and traditional coffee brewing alternatives
- Carbonated soft drink category faces long-term volume headwinds from shifting consumer health preferences
- Concentrated North American revenue exposure limits international diversification relative to larger global beverage peers
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