ADM vs BG: Archer-Daniels-Midland vs Bunge Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ADM and Bunge are both global agribusiness giants with large oilseed crushing, grain merchandising, and agricultural commodity processing businesses, but ADM has more diversification into corn wet milling, biofuels, and nutrition, while Bunge is more concentrated in oilseeds and is pursuing a major expansion through the Viterra merger. Both stocks are heavily influenced by agricultural commodity crush margins.
ADM vs BG is a more diversified agribusiness platform with accounting headwinds versus a purer oilseed play pursuing transformative scale through Viterra — ADM wins if Nutrition recovers and accounting issues resolve cleanly; Bunge wins if Viterra merger closes and creates the world's most powerful grain trading network.
BG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ADM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+30.85% vs +14.95%), though BG has the better forward P/E setup (10.18x vs 15.12x for ADM). BG leads on both revenue growth (88.30%) and operating margin (4.62%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BG (+22.29%) than for ADM (-7.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want diversified agribusiness exposure including corn wet milling, ethanol, and nutrition alongside oilseeds
- believe ADM's accounting issues are resolvable and the underlying business remains structurally strong
- value ADM's global grain origination network as an irreplaceable infrastructure asset
- prefer a dividend-paying agribusiness with a long history of shareholder returns
- want the most direct exposure to global oilseed crush margins and grain merchandising
- believe the Viterra merger will create the world's most powerful agribusiness platform with durable pricing power
- value Bunge's South American origination depth as a structural advantage in global grain exports
- are comfortable with merger uncertainty but want transformative scale exposure if the deal closes
| Metric | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.1 | 46.7 |
| AI ranki | #993 | #601 |
| Latest closei | $82.93 | $107.01 |
| 1M returni | -4.25% | -12.11% |
| 3M returni | -0.08% | -7.61% |
| 6M returni | +20.75% | -13.01% |
| 1Y returni | +30.85% | +14.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.18K (+31.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.23K (+12.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $15.75K (+57.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $15.33K (+53.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $33.53K (+235.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $31.74K (+217.4%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.8B | $22.19B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 23.69 | 24.89 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.12 | 10.18 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| Analyst targeti | $80.10 | $141.22 |
| Target upsidei | -7.63% | +22.29% |
| Metric | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.20% | 88.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 315.60% | 33.00% |
| EPS growthi | +315.60% | +33.00% |
| FCF margini | +1.42% | -7.05% |
| Operating margini | 4.01% | 4.62% |
| Profit margini | 2.16% | 1.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.64% | 7.18% |
| Return on equityi | 7.64% | 7.18% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.40% | 2.49% |
| Payout ratioi | 56.44% | 56.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Debt/equityi | 39.13 | 98.00 |
| Current ratioi | 1.39 | 1.57 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.30 | 0.33 |
Over the past year, ADM and BG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +31.84% | +12.25% |
| CAGRi | +31.90% | +12.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.75% | 29.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.98 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.46 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.29% | 21.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.86% | 18.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.61% | 6.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.72% | 9.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.37% | 8.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.07% | 14.09% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +42.77% | +38.05% |
| CAGRi | +7.39% | +6.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.73% | 29.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.32 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.14% | 41.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.98% | 18.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.90% | 17.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.00% | 20.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.20% | 8.17% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.69% | 16.80% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +153.73% | +136.54% |
| CAGRi | +9.76% | +8.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.14% | 31.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.14% | 60.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.98% | 18.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.00% | 18.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.72% | 22.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.20% | 14.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.69% | 25.34% |
| Category | ADM | BG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | Bunge Limited |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Farm Products | Farm Products |
| Core business | Global agribusiness giant with three segments: Ag Services & Oilseeds (grain merchandising, oilseed crushing), Carbohydrate Solutions (corn wet milling, ethanol, starches, sweeteners), and Nutrition (amino acids, probiotics, flavors for human and animal nutrition). | Global agribusiness and food company specializing in oilseed processing, grain merchandising, sugar production (Brazil), and edible oils. Bunge's pending merger with Viterra (pending regulatory approval) would create the world's largest agribusiness company. |
| Investor focus | Crush margin environment, Nutrition segment profitability improvement, accounting investigation resolution, and biofuel demand from renewable diesel feedstocks. | Oilseed crush margins, Viterra merger integration and regulatory approval timing, Brazilian sugar and ethanol operations, and edible oil demand in developing markets. |
- ADM's global grain origination and logistics network is one of the most valuable assets in agribusiness — impossible to replicate
- Carbohydrate Solutions generates stable earnings from corn wet milling and ethanol even in challenging crop years
- Nutrition segment provides higher-margin, differentiated revenue that reduces pure commodity cycle dependence
- Bunge's South American grain origin network is the deepest among global traders — Brazil and Argentina are critical export origins
- Viterra acquisition (pending) would dramatically expand Bunge's grain merchandising and origination network if approved
- Edible oil demand in Asian and African markets provides secular growth exposure from rising food demand
- ADM disclosed an accounting irregularity in its Nutrition segment, leading to SEC investigation and CEO departure — credibility headwind
- Oilseed crush margins are cyclical and have compressed from elevated 2022-2023 levels as new crush capacity comes online
- China's soybean demand uncertainty is a key variable for global crush economics that ADM depends on
- Viterra merger regulatory risk is significant — the combination creates a very large grain trading entity that regulators in multiple jurisdictions must approve
- Crush margin cyclicality means Bunge's oilseed earnings are highly variable with agricultural commodity prices
- Brazil operations create currency risk from BRL/USD volatility on a large portion of revenues and costs
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