SBUX vs CAVA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks and Cava both operate in food and beverage retail, but Starbucks is a globally established coffeehouse giant currently focused on turnaround execution, while Cava is a much smaller, faster-growing fast-casual chain early in its national expansion.
Starbucks offers exposure to a global brand turnaround story with an extensive existing store network, while Cava offers exposure to early-stage fast-casual unit growth with a long expansion runway. Consider whether you prefer Starbucks' turnaround potential at scale or Cava's earlier-stage growth trajectory.
SBUX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX leads on both 1-year return (+19.74%) and forward P/E quality (34.62x vs 83.47x for CAVA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CAVA is growing revenue faster (31.30%), while SBUX maintains the higher operating margin (12.92%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAVA (+37.34%) than for SBUX (+4.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a globally recognized coffee brand undergoing a turnaround effort
- Believe operational efficiency initiatives can restore same-store sales momentum
- Value a substantial digital ordering and loyalty program customer base
- Are comfortable with near-term margin pressure during turnaround investment
- Want exposure to early-stage fast-casual restaurant unit growth
- Believe a differentiated Mediterranean-inspired concept can sustain strong customer demand
- Value a long runway for continued national store expansion
- Are comfortable with a valuation that reflects significant future growth expectations
| Metric | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 35.6 |
| AI ranki | #926 | #1636 |
| Latest closei | $104.47 | $60.76 |
| 1M returni | -1.44% | -8.18% |
| 6M returni | +5.86% | -23.45% |
| 1Y returni | +19.74% | -7.81% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2025-09-04 | $9.21K (-7.9%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $10.77K (+7.7%) started 2021-09-07 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
| 10Y ago | $27.4K (+174.0%) started 2016-09-06 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $122.95B | $7.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 62.34 | 110.25 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.62 | 83.47 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.80 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $112.23 | $84.79 |
| Target upsidei | +4.06% | +37.34% |
| Metric | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 31.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 85.70% | 19.80% |
| EPS growthi | +85.70% | +19.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.00% | -0.05% |
| Operating margini | 12.92% | 7.62% |
| Profit margini | 5.17% | 4.82% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 8.32% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 8.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.31% | N/A |
| Betai | 0.97 | 1.75 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 61.90 |
| Current ratioi | 0.76 | 2.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.50 | 2.36 |
Over the past year, SBUX and CAVA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.35), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +20.07% | -7.88% |
| CAGRi | +20.10% | -7.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.73% | 59.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.99 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.51% | 37.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.76% | 37.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.40% | 14.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.43% | 18.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.03% | 11.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.21% | 19.23% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -1.60% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | -0.32% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.82% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.74% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.16% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.86% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.97% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.88% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.87% | 25.51% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +124.11% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | +8.41% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.56% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.68% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.27% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.60% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.78% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.20% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.22% | 25.51% |
| Category | SBUX | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | CAVA Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A global coffeehouse chain operating and licensing a large network of retail coffee stores worldwide, alongside a consumer packaged goods and licensed store business. | A fast-casual restaurant chain offering Mediterranean-inspired food, operating and expanding a growing store base primarily across the United States. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales trends reflecting turnaround execution, China market performance, and progress on operational efficiency initiatives within its store base. | New restaurant unit growth pace, average unit volume trends at newer locations, and margin trends as the store base scales. |
- Globally recognized brand supports significant customer loyalty and premium pricing power
- Extensive global store network and licensing model provides broad geographic diversification
- Digital ordering and loyalty program platform provides a substantial base of engaged, repeat customers
- Differentiated Mediterranean-inspired fast-casual concept has supported strong customer demand and unit growth
- Relatively early stage of national expansion provides a long runway for continued store count growth
- Digital ordering channel adoption has supported incremental sales alongside traditional in-store traffic
- Same-store sales have faced pressure requiring ongoing turnaround execution across its store base
- China market performance faces competition from local coffee chains and shifting consumer spending patterns
- Labor and input cost inflation can pressure margins during turnaround investment periods
- Continued rapid store expansion carries execution risk around site selection and new market entry
- Smaller scale relative to established restaurant chains provides less purchasing and brand recognition advantage
- Valuation reflects significant future growth expectations that require sustained execution to justify
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