ONON vs NKE: Performance Running Disruptor vs Athletic Footwear Incumbent: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
On Holding is the fastest-growing premium athletic brand, taking market share in running and lifestyle with 30%+ revenue growth and strong brand momentum. Nike is the incumbent giant with unmatched global scale and brand equity, but facing near-term challenges from innovation gaps and emerging competitors. On offers high growth at a premium valuation; Nike offers recovery potential at a more established multiple.
Use this ONON vs NKE comparison to evaluate the classic disruptor-versus-incumbent dynamic in athletic footwear: On Holding's explosive growth and brand heat versus Nike's global scale, resources, and potential for a competitive response.
ONON holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ONON leads on both 1-year return (-37.29%) and forward P/E quality (13.44x vs 17.28x for NKE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ONON leads on both revenue growth (13.50%) and operating margin (14.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ONON (+59.96%) than for NKE (+27.57%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the fastest-growing premium athletic brand with 30%+ revenue growth
- Believe On's CloudTec technology and running authenticity will sustain brand momentum for years
- Are comfortable paying a growth premium for a disruptor taking share from established incumbents
- Value the optionality of On's expansion into apparel, outdoor, and new geographic markets
- Prefer the safety of the world's largest athletic brand with unmatched global distribution and marketing scale
- Believe Nike's innovation pipeline and wholesale recalibration will drive a recovery cycle
- Want a dividend-paying blue chip with a strong balance sheet and long-term compounding track record
- Expect Nike's competitive response to emerging brands will be effective given its resource advantages
| Metric | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 23.8 | 27.5 |
| AI ranki | #3578 | #2435 |
| Latest closei | $26.76 | $36.22 |
| 1M returni | -16.95% | -11.07% |
| 6M returni | -32.75% | -34.29% |
| 1Y returni | -37.29% | -50.40% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.22K (-37.8%) started 2025-09-16 | $4.98K (-50.2%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $7.14K (-28.6%) started 2021-09-16 | $2.55K (-74.5%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $7.65K (-23.5%) started 2021-09-15 | $8.11K (-18.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.29B | $58.75B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.04 | 18.86 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.44 | 17.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.94 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 1.31 |
| Analyst targeti | $44.47 | $50.52 |
| Target upsidei | +59.96% | +27.57% |
| Metric | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.50% | -1.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 428.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +428.00% |
| FCF margini | +8.96% | +4.07% |
| Operating margini | 14.02% | 12.69% |
| Profit margini | 12.30% | 6.70% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.95% | 22.14% |
| Return on equityi | 23.95% | 22.14% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 4.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 77.62% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.12 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 29.43 | 74.29 |
| Current ratioi | 2.83 | 1.96 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.12 | 1.19 |
Over the past year, ONON and NKE have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.36), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -37.80% | -50.21% |
| CAGRi | -37.85% | -50.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.83% | 36.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.82 | -1.87 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.09 | -2.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.15% | 51.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 47.15% | 51.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.65% | 27.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.53% | 31.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 15.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.02% | 18.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -28.62% | -75.72% |
| CAGRi | -6.52% | -24.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.95% | 35.78% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | -0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | -0.98 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.90% | 78.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.94% | 78.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 36.59% | 45.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.80% | 49.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.98% | 22.44% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -23.54% | -27.07% |
| CAGRi | -5.23% | -3.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.02% | 32.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.11 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.16 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.90% | 78.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.94% | 78.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 36.56% | 25.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.79% | 35.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.98% | 22.44% |
| Category | ONON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | On Holding AG | NIKE, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories | Footwear & Accessories |
| Core business | Swiss-headquartered performance running and athletic lifestyle brand known for its CloudTec cushioning technology. Growing rapidly across running, training, and outdoor categories with expanding DTC channels. Products span footwear, apparel, and accessories with a premium positioning and strong sell-through at retail. | The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company with over $50 billion in annual revenue. Operates iconic brands including Nike and Jordan across footwear, apparel, and equipment. Sells globally through owned retail, Nike Direct digital channels, and wholesale partnerships. |
| Investor focus | Revenue growth trajectory (30%+ annually), DTC channel expansion and margin uplift, geographic expansion beyond North America and Europe, apparel category growth, and the path from high-growth to profitability and free cash flow generation. | Innovation pipeline recovery in running and performance, wholesale partnership recalibration, Nike Direct digital growth, gross margin recovery, and competitive response to emerging brands like On and Hoka. |
- 30%+ annual revenue growth driven by brand heat, strong retail sell-through, and new customer acquisition
- Authentic performance running positioning with differentiated CloudTec technology and Olympic athlete partnerships
- Rapidly expanding DTC channel improves gross margins and deepens the consumer relationship
- Unrivaled global scale with over 25% footwear market share and the largest athlete endorsement portfolio in sports
- Over $50 billion in annual revenue with the financial resources to invest in innovation, marketing, and distribution
- Decades of brand equity and consumer loyalty across performance, lifestyle, and culture
- Premium valuation prices in years of high growth execution with little room for deceleration
- Scale challenges ahead as the brand grows from $3B+ revenue toward $5B+ in a competitive market
- Limited track record in apparel compared to footwear, and apparel margins are typically lower
- Near-term market share losses to On Running, Hoka, and New Balance in premium performance categories
- Innovation pipeline has lagged in running, ceding the specialty running channel to emerging brands
- Gross margin recovery depends on reducing promotional activity and clearing excess inventory
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