NKE vs UA: Global Athletic Brand Leader vs Turnaround Challenger: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nike is the undisputed global leader in athletic footwear and apparel, with unmatched brand power and scale, though it faces near-term challenges from emerging competitors and innovation gaps. Under Armour is a deep-value turnaround play trading at depressed multiples, with meaningful upside if its restructuring succeeds but significant risk if brand relevance continues to erode.
Use this NKE vs UA comparison to evaluate two very different risk-reward profiles in athletic apparel: Nike's blue-chip quality with near-term headwinds versus Under Armour's speculative turnaround at a fraction of the valuation.
NKE and UA are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. UA leads on both 1-year return (+6.78%) and forward P/E quality (13.24x vs 17.28x for NKE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NKE leads on both revenue growth (-1.10%) and operating margin (12.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the global athletic apparel market through the dominant, highest-quality brand
- Believe Nike's innovation pipeline and wholesale recalibration will drive a revenue and margin recovery
- Prefer a blue-chip company with a strong balance sheet, dividend, and long-term track record of compounding
- Are willing to accept near-term challenges in exchange for the durability of the world's strongest sports brand
- Are deep-value or contrarian investors seeking outsized upside from a turnaround at a low entry price
- Believe Under Armour's brand retains enough equity in performance athletics to support a recovery
- Can tolerate continued revenue pressure and execution risk while the restructuring plays out
- Want a small-cap athletic apparel position with asymmetric risk-reward versus the large-cap incumbents
| Metric | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.6 | 23.7 |
| AI ranki | #2351 | #3484 |
| Latest closei | $38.42 | $4.88 |
| 1M returni | +7.20% | +15.64% |
| 3M returni | -9.15% | -26.95% |
| 6M returni | -13.39% | -19.60% |
| 1Y returni | -43.02% | +6.78% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.88K (-41.2%) started 2025-10-29 | $10.94K (+9.4%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $2.54K (-74.6%) started 2021-11-01 | $2.58K (-74.2%) started 2021-10-29 |
| 10Y ago | $9.42K (-5.8%) started 2016-10-31 | $1.89K (-81.1%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $58.75B | $2.16B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.86 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.28 | 13.24 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.94 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.31 | 0.62 |
| Analyst targeti | $50.52 | N/A |
| Target upsidei | +27.57% | N/A |
| Metric | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.10% | -3.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 428.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +428.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +4.07% | +2.07% |
| Operating margini | 12.69% | -1.60% |
| Profit margini | 6.70% | -9.99% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.14% | -29.83% |
| Return on equityi | 22.14% | -29.83% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.27% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 78.85% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.12 | 1.65 |
| Debt/equityi | 74.29 | 96.36 |
| Current ratioi | 1.96 | 1.81 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.19 | 0.81 |
Over the past year, NKE and UA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -41.21% | +9.42% |
| CAGRi | -41.25% | +9.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.85% | 53.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.43 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.80 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.03% | 46.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 43.32% | 38.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.20% | 20.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.93% | 24.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.51% | 16.67% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.35% | 22.54% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -75.78% | -74.15% |
| CAGRi | -24.73% | -23.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.83% | 50.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.74 | -0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.99 | -0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.99% | 82.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 77.31% | 78.44% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.74% | 64.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 50.82% | 66.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.98% | 25.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.44% | 36.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -15.28% | -81.13% |
| CAGRi | -1.65% | -15.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.62% | 50.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.02 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.03 | -0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.99% | 86.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 77.31% | 83.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.46% | 56.56% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.29% | 60.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.98% | 25.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.44% | 36.27% |
| Category | NKE | UA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NIKE, Inc. | Under Armour, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories | Apparel Manufacturing |
| Core business | The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company with over $50 billion in annual revenue. Operates iconic brands including Nike and Jordan across footwear, apparel, and equipment. Sells through owned retail, Nike Direct digital channels, and wholesale partnerships globally. | Athletic performance apparel and footwear brand executing a multi-year turnaround under renewed leadership. Founded as a performance compression apparel company, Under Armour has struggled with brand positioning, inventory management, and international expansion. Currently focused on reducing discounting, elevating the brand, and improving profitability. |
| Investor focus | Nike Direct digital growth, wholesale partnership recalibration, innovation pipeline in running and lifestyle, gross margin recovery, inventory management, and Greater China demand trends. | Revenue stabilization and return to growth, gross margin improvement through reduced discounting, DTC channel optimization, North America brand recovery, and management execution on the restructuring plan. |
- Unrivaled global brand recognition and marketing scale with the highest athlete endorsement portfolio in sports
- Nike Direct and digital channels provide higher margins and richer consumer data than wholesale
- Massive scale in footwear with over 25% global market share creates sourcing, marketing, and distribution advantages
- Deep-value valuation at historically depressed multiples offers meaningful upside if the turnaround gains traction
- Strong brand recognition in performance training and football with authentic athletic heritage
- Restructuring under renewed leadership is reducing costs and rationalizing the product assortment
- Market share losses to emerging brands like On Running and Hoka in the premium running segment
- Inventory management challenges and promotional activity have pressured gross margins
- Over-reliance on retro lifestyle franchises (Dunk, Air Force 1) at the expense of performance innovation
- Brand relevance has declined significantly, particularly in lifestyle and casual athletic segments
- Revenue has been declining and the path to sustainable growth remains unproven
- Competitive environment is intensifying with Nike, On, Hoka, and New Balance all taking share
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