SAIA vs ODFL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SAIA vs ODFL compares a fast-growing regional LTL challenger still building out its national network against the LTL industry's long-standing margin and service leader. Saia offers faster top-line growth as new terminals mature, while Old Dominion offers proven operational excellence and industry-leading margins, typically at a premium valuation.
Saia suits investors seeking growth exposure to a carrier still in the middle of a multi-year network expansion, betting that new terminals will mature into the same kind of density and margin advantages that established players enjoy. Old Dominion suits investors who prefer to pay for a proven, best-in-class operator with a long track record of service quality and disciplined capital allocation, even at a higher valuation multiple.
ODFL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ODFL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+24.59% vs +10.74%), though SAIA has the better forward P/E setup (23.46x vs 29.91x for ODFL). On fundamentals, SAIA is growing revenue faster (17.10%), while ODFL maintains the higher operating margin (28.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SAIA (+31.22%) than for ODFL (+16.87%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want growth exposure to a carrier still expanding its national terminal footprint
- Believe newer terminals will mature into improved margins over the next several years
- Are comfortable with near-term margin pressure in exchange for longer-term market share gains
- Prefer a challenger story over an already-optimized industry leader
- Prioritize best-in-class operating margins and service reliability over faster growth
- Value a long track record of disciplined, ahead-of-demand capacity investment
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for a proven industry leader
- Want lower operational execution risk than a still-expanding challenger
| Metric | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.2 | 62.3 |
| AI ranki | #226 | #145 |
| Latest closei | $353.80 | $180.96 |
| 1M returni | -7.94% | -14.22% |
| 6M returni | +7.55% | -1.88% |
| 1Y returni | +10.74% | +24.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.77K (+7.7%) started 2025-09-16 | $12.31K (+23.1%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $14.32K (+43.2%) started 2021-09-16 | $12.9K (+29.0%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $115.28K (+1052.8%) started 2016-09-16 | $84.15K (+741.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $8.83B | $41.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 32.05 | 38.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 23.46 | 29.91 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.91 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.65 | 7.30 |
| Analyst targeti | $435.71 | $232.14 |
| Target upsidei | +31.22% | +16.87% |
| Metric | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 17.10% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 31.50% | 32.30% |
| EPS growthi | +31.50% | +32.30% |
| FCF margini | +4.00% | +17.33% |
| Operating margini | 13.09% | 28.84% |
| Profit margini | 8.19% | 19.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.77% | 24.82% |
| Return on equityi | 10.77% | 24.82% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.58% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 21.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.14 | 1.18 |
| Debt/equityi | 9.87 | 0.44 |
| Current ratioi | 1.58 | 1.89 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.40 | 1.71 |
Over the past year, SAIA and ODFL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.83), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +7.67% | +23.09% |
| CAGRi | +7.69% | +23.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.36% | 37.78% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.93% | 27.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.37% | 27.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.29% | 7.68% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.64% | 10.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.11% | 7.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.39% | 16.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +43.16% | +26.96% |
| CAGRi | +7.44% | +4.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.81% | 36.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | 0.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.94% | 45.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.61% | 27.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.52% | 16.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.04% | 20.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.66% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.20% | 17.13% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1052.82% | +712.99% |
| CAGRi | +27.70% | +23.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.82% | 33.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.94% | 45.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.61% | 27.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.22% | 11.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.43% | 15.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.66% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.20% | 17.13% |
| Category | SAIA | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Saia | Old Dominion Freight Line |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Trucking |
| Core business | Saia is a less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier that has been aggressively expanding its terminal network to build out national coverage, historically concentrated more heavily in the Southeast and Midwest. The company has been opening new terminals at a rapid pace to compete more directly with larger national players, trading near-term margin pressure from unseasoned terminals for longer-term market share and density gains. | Old Dominion Freight Line is one of the largest and most efficient national less-than-truckload carriers in the US, known for industry-leading on-time service and damage-free delivery rates. The company operates a dense network of service centers across the country and has a long history of reinvesting in capacity ahead of demand, supporting consistently best-in-class operating margins in the LTL industry. |
| Investor focus | Network Expansion + Market Share Growth | Operational Excellence + Margin Leadership |
- Rapid terminal network expansion is extending Saia's reach into new geographic markets
- Revenue growth has consistently outpaced many peers as new terminals mature and gain volume
- Improving operating leverage as newer terminals ramp toward full capacity utilization
- Consistently generates the highest operating margins in the LTL industry through superior service quality
- Long track record of disciplined, ahead-of-demand capacity investment supports service reliability
- Premium service reputation allows for strong pricing power relative to peers
- New terminal openings create near-term margin drag until they reach mature volume levels
- Smaller scale and shorter track record in some regions compared to more established national LTL carriers
- LTL freight volumes and pricing are sensitive to broader industrial and freight-cycle conditions
- Premium valuation relative to peers leaves less room for error if freight volumes soften
- Freight demand is closely tied to broader industrial production and inventory cycles
- Slower unit growth in a mature network compared to a rapidly expanding challenger like Saia
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