ONON vs LULU: Performance Running Growth vs Athleisure Lifestyle Brand: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
On Holding is the high-growth performance running disruptor with 30%+ revenue growth, expanding from footwear into apparel and lifestyle. Lululemon is the established premium athleisure leader with superior margins and proven brand loyalty, growing primarily through international expansion. On offers higher growth but lower margins and more execution risk; Lululemon offers proven profitability with a longer track record.
Use this ONON vs LULU comparison to evaluate two premium athletic brands at different maturity stages: On Holding's explosive growth phase in performance running versus Lululemon's profitable expansion phase in athleisure, with different growth drivers and risk profiles.
ONON holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ONON has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-20.33% vs -38.98%), though LULU has the better forward P/E setup (10.76x vs 13.44x for ONON). ONON leads on both revenue growth (13.50%) and operating margin (14.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ONON (+59.96%) than for LULU (+5.60%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the fastest-growing brand in premium athletic footwear with 30%+ revenue growth
- Believe On's expansion into apparel will meaningfully increase the brand's addressable market
- Are comfortable with a growth premium valuation and lower current margins in exchange for higher upside potential
- Value authentic performance running positioning as a durable brand differentiator
- Prefer a proven premium brand with best-in-class margins and a long track record of profitable growth
- Believe Lululemon's international expansion, especially in China, provides years of store-driven growth runway
- Want exposure to the athleisure lifestyle trend through the category-defining brand
- Value Lululemon's 55%+ gross margins and community-driven customer loyalty as durable competitive advantages
| Metric | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.1 | 37.4 |
| AI ranki | #2552 | #1456 |
| Latest closei | $32.80 | $109.82 |
| 1M returni | +11.00% | +13.37% |
| 3M returni | -11.59% | -8.08% |
| 6M returni | -7.89% | -20.25% |
| 1Y returni | -20.33% | -38.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.35K (-16.5%) started 2025-10-29 | $6.45K (-35.5%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $9.6K (-4.0%) started 2021-10-29 | $2.39K (-76.1%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $9.37K (-6.3%) started 2021-09-15 | $19.18K (+91.8%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.29B | $13.69B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.04 | 9.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.44 | 10.76 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 1.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $44.47 | $127.35 |
| Target upsidei | +59.96% | +5.60% |
| Metric | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.50% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -35.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -35.00% |
| FCF margini | +8.96% | +10.12% |
| Operating margini | 14.02% | 11.21% |
| Profit margini | 12.30% | 13.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.95% | 32.03% |
| Return on equityi | 23.95% | 32.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.12 | 0.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 29.43 | 44.26 |
| Current ratioi | 2.83 | 2.23 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.12 | 0.94 |
Over the past year, ONON and LULU have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -16.52% | -35.51% |
| CAGRi | -16.54% | -35.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.79% | 45.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.22 | -0.82 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.29 | -1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.15% | 57.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.22% | 49.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.56% | 30.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.39% | 35.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 17.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.02% | 19.31% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -3.98% | -76.07% |
| CAGRi | -0.81% | -24.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.36% | 43.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | -0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.28 | -0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.90% | 82.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.44% | 78.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 37.39% | 39.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.44% | 45.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 19.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.98% | 25.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -6.29% | +91.83% |
| CAGRi | -1.26% | +6.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.64% | 41.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.90% | 82.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.44% | 78.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 36.87% | 24.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.02% | 33.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.29% | 23.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.98% | 30.43% |
| Category | ONON | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Company | On Holding AG | Lululemon Athletica Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Swiss-headquartered performance running and athletic lifestyle brand known for its CloudTec cushioning technology. Growing rapidly across running, training, and outdoor categories with expanding DTC channels and a premium price positioning. Revenue growth has consistently exceeded 30% annually. | Premium athleisure and athletic apparel brand known for yoga, running, and lifestyle categories. Operates primarily through company-owned stores and a strong DTC e-commerce channel. The brand commands premium pricing through fabric innovation, community-driven marketing, and a loyal customer base. International expansion, particularly in China, is the primary growth driver. |
| Investor focus | Revenue growth sustainability above 25%, DTC channel expansion and margin improvement, apparel category growth, geographic expansion into Asia-Pacific, and the timeline to consistent free cash flow generation. | International revenue growth (especially China), men's category expansion, DTC digital penetration, comparable store sales trends, and gross margin stability at premium pricing levels. |
- Fastest-growing premium athletic brand with 30%+ revenue growth and strong brand momentum globally
- Differentiated CloudTec technology and authentic running heritage create genuine product differentiation
- Expanding from footwear into apparel and accessories adds new growth vectors and deepens brand lifestyle positioning
- Industry-leading brand loyalty and community engagement drive exceptional repeat purchase rates and low customer acquisition costs
- Premium pricing power with gross margins above 55%, well above athletic apparel peers
- International expansion, particularly in China, provides a long runway for store-driven revenue growth
- Premium growth valuation requires sustained execution with no room for revenue deceleration
- Apparel expansion is less proven than footwear, and competing against established apparel brands like Lululemon is harder
- Profitability is still maturing; operating margins are below peers as the company invests in growth
- North America comparable store sales growth has slowed, raising concerns about domestic market maturation
- Heavy reliance on China expansion introduces geopolitical and macroeconomic risk
- Growing competition from Nike, Alo Yoga, Vuori, and other premium athleisure brands in the core women's segment
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