LSTR vs ODFL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Landstar and Old Dominion both operate in freight transportation, but Landstar uses an asset-light model arranging truckload freight through independent agents and capacity providers, while Old Dominion owns and operates its own extensive less-than-truckload trucking network and terminal infrastructure.
Landstar offers a capital-light business model with flexible capacity scaling and strong free cash flow generation, while Old Dominion offers an asset-based model built on service quality leadership and terminal network investment. Consider whether you prefer Landstar's asset-light flexibility or Old Dominion's asset-based service quality premium.
ODFL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ODFL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+29.21% vs +20.06%), though LSTR has the better forward P/E setup (22.82x vs 29.91x for ODFL). On fundamentals, LSTR is growing revenue faster (18.10%), while ODFL maintains the higher operating margin (28.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ODFL (+16.87%) than for LSTR (+12.59%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer a capital-light business model with minimal fleet ownership requirements
- Value strong free cash flow generation and returns on invested capital from the asset-light structure
- Want flexible freight capacity scaling through Landstar's independent agent and provider network
- Are comfortable with revenue sensitivity to freight market spot and contract rate cycles
- Want exposure to an established, industry-leading LTL operator with a long track record of superior execution
- Value consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity supporting sustained market share gains
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for a proven, high-quality service provider
- Prefer an asset-based model with direct control over service quality and network infrastructure
| Metric | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.4 | 63.1 |
| AI ranki | #1189 | #111 |
| Latest closei | $151.06 | $177.68 |
| 1M returni | -12.92% | -1.55% |
| 3M returni | -16.83% | -18.99% |
| 6M returni | -16.23% | -9.38% |
| 1Y returni | +20.06% | +29.21% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.81K (+18.1%) started 2025-11-04 | $12.57K (+25.7%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $8.12K (-18.8%) started 2021-11-04 | $10.52K (+5.2%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $20.88K (+108.8%) started 2016-11-04 | $76.35K (+663.5%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.92B | $41.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 45.19 | 38.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.82 | 29.91 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.91 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.15 | 7.30 |
| Analyst targeti | $196.38 | $232.14 |
| Target upsidei | +12.59% | +16.87% |
| Metric | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 18.10% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 20.10% | 32.30% |
| EPS growthi | +20.10% | +32.30% |
| FCF margini | +1.94% | +17.33% |
| Operating margini | 4.61% | 28.84% |
| Profit margini | 2.64% | 19.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.98% | 24.82% |
| Return on equityi | 14.98% | 24.82% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.00% | 0.58% |
| Payout ratioi | 34.75% | 21.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.63 | 0.44 |
| Current ratioi | 1.82 | 1.89 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.74 | 1.71 |
Over the past year, LSTR and ODFL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.66), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +18.06% | +25.69% |
| CAGRi | +18.10% | +25.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.31% | 38.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.41% | 30.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.97% | 28.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.78% | 10.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.00% | 13.95% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.76% | 7.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.96% | 16.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -18.78% | +3.51% |
| CAGRi | -4.08% | +0.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.54% | 37.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.14 | 0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.19 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.24% | 45.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.97% | 28.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.41% | 17.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.39% | 20.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.76% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.96% | 17.13% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +108.79% | +637.60% |
| CAGRi | +7.64% | +22.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.38% | 33.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.24% | 45.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.97% | 28.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.48% | 11.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.73% | 15.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.76% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.96% | 17.13% |
| Category | LSTR | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Landstar System, Inc. | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Trucking |
| Core business | An asset-light transportation services company that arranges truckload freight transportation through a network of independent business capacity providers and commission-based agents rather than owning a large company truck fleet. | A less-than-truckload motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL freight transportation services along with logistics services across the United States and select international markets. |
| Investor focus | Freight volume trends across the independent agent and capacity provider network, revenue per load pricing, and capital-light business model returns. | Operating ratio trends, tonnage and revenue per hundredweight growth, and continued network capacity investment supporting service quality. |
- Asset-light business model requires minimal capital investment in trucks and equipment relative to asset-based carriers
- Independent agent and capacity provider network provides flexible scaling of freight capacity without fleet ownership costs
- Capital-light structure supports strong free cash flow generation and returns on invested capital
- Industry-leading operating ratio reflects a long track record of superior service quality and cost discipline
- Consistent reinvestment in terminal network capacity has supported market share gains over time
- Strong reputation for on-time delivery and low damage claims commands premium pricing versus competitors
- Revenue and volume are directly tied to freight market spot and contract rate cycles, which can be volatile
- Business model depends on maintaining strong relationships with independent agents and capacity providers
- Less direct control over service quality compared to asset-based carriers that own their own fleets
- Premium valuation reflects high performance expectations, leaving less room for execution missteps
- LTL freight volumes are sensitive to broader industrial production and manufacturing activity cycles
- Continued capital investment in terminal capacity requires sustained volume growth to generate expected returns
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