CMG vs YUM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and Yum! Brands both operate in the restaurant industry but with fundamentally different models: Chipotle owns and operates its own fast-casual restaurants with a focus on digital ordering and unit growth, while Yum! Brands franchises a global portfolio of quick-service brands including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, earning royalty revenue with minimal capital investment.
Chipotle offers exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual concept with strong digital ordering momentum, while Yum! Brands offers exposure to an asset-light global franchise empire spanning multiple established quick-service brands. Consider whether you prefer Chipotle's concentrated growth story or Yum!'s diversified franchise royalty model.
YUM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. YUM leads on both 1-year return (+1.57%) and forward P/E quality (20.63x vs 27.78x for CMG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. YUM leads on both revenue growth (12.20%) and operating margin (32.78%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +14.84% for CMG and +12.66% for YUM.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a high-growth, company-owned fast-casual restaurant concept
- Believe strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure supports continued sales growth
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for proven new restaurant unit economics
- Prefer direct operational control over franchise-model diversification
- Want exposure to a diversified, asset-light global franchise portfolio
- Value high-margin royalty revenue generated with limited capital investment
- Believe international quick-service dining growth offers a long runway for unit expansion
- Prefer diversification across multiple established restaurant brands
| Metric | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.9 | 51.5 |
| AI ranki | #447 | #407 |
| Latest closei | $27.52 | $149.70 |
| 1M returni | -15.87% | +6.45% |
| 3M returni | -13.43% | +0.52% |
| 6M returni | -19.56% | -6.60% |
| 1Y returni | -33.86% | +1.57% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.58K (-34.2%) started 2025-10-23 | $10.23K (+2.3%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $7.75K (-22.5%) started 2021-10-25 | $13.59K (+35.9%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $33.29K (+232.9%) started 2016-10-24 | $32.29K (+222.9%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $41.99B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 19.38 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 20.63 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.20 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 6.27 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $173.34 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +12.66% |
| Metric | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 12.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 131.60% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +131.60% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +9.55% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 32.78% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 25.41% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.95% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 36.78% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.55 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.33 |
Over the past year, CMG and YUM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.34), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -34.16% | +2.28% |
| CAGRi | -34.20% | +2.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.03% | 24.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.86 | 0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.11 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.16% | 19.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.16% | 10.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.68% | 6.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.13% | 8.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 4.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 9.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -22.48% | +26.98% |
| CAGRi | -4.97% | +4.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.14% | 21.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.10 | 0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.14 | 0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.86% | 23.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.86% | 10.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.25% | 8.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.03% | 9.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 8.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 11.04% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +232.89% | +175.24% |
| CAGRi | +12.78% | +10.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.32% | 23.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.86% | 52.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.86% | 10.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.00% | 7.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.48% | 10.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 11.00% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 25.98% |
| Category | CMG | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Yum! Brands, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain that operates company-owned locations serving customizable Mexican-inspired food made with a focus on fresh ingredients, relying on unit growth and digital ordering rather than franchising. | A global franchisor operating restaurant brands including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, generating revenue primarily through franchise royalties and fees rather than owning and operating the vast majority of its restaurant locations. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales growth, new restaurant unit economics, and digital and delivery order penetration as a share of total sales. | Global unit growth across its brand portfolio, franchise royalty revenue trends, and digital ordering adoption across international markets. |
- Company-owned restaurant model provides direct control over food quality, service consistency, and brand experience
- Strong digital ordering and delivery infrastructure captures a significant share of sales through convenient channels
- Proven new restaurant unit economics support a long runway for continued store count growth
- Asset-light franchise model generates high-margin royalty revenue with limited capital investment per new unit
- Diversified portfolio of well-known restaurant brands reduces dependence on any single concept's performance
- Extensive international franchise footprint provides exposure to long-term global quick-service dining growth
- Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for each new restaurant, unlike asset-light franchise models
- Valuation reflects high growth expectations, leaving less room for error if same-store sales decelerate
- Limited menu and format concentration means results are more exposed to shifts in fast-casual dining preferences
- Franchise model provides less direct control over individual restaurant operations and customer experience consistency
- Same-store sales growth varies significantly across its different brands and international markets
- International exposure introduces currency translation and geopolitical risk across a broad footprint of countries
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