HUBS vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HubSpot and Shopify both serve small and mid-sized businesses, but HubSpot provides CRM software for marketing, sales, and customer service functions, while Shopify provides the e-commerce infrastructure and payments technology that merchants use to build and operate their online stores.
HubSpot offers exposure to SMB marketing and sales software subscription growth, while Shopify offers exposure to e-commerce infrastructure and merchant transaction volume growth. Consider whether you prefer HubSpot's CRM subscription model or Shopify's commerce platform and transaction-based monetization.
SHOP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHOP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+0.99% vs -42.30%), though HUBS has the better forward P/E setup (15.70x vs 69.04x for SHOP). SHOP leads on both revenue growth (33.70%) and operating margin (17.55%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHOP (+3.65%) than for HUBS (-7.67%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a comprehensive, integrated CRM platform serving small and mid-sized businesses
- Value HubSpot's strong brand recognition and inbound marketing thought leadership
- Believe AI-powered automation features will strengthen customer productivity and platform stickiness
- Prefer a subscription software model over a transaction-based commerce platform
- Want exposure to the dominant e-commerce infrastructure platform for small and mid-sized online merchants
- Value Shopify's growing merchant financial services beyond core subscription revenue
- Believe network effects from merchants and app developers will strengthen Shopify's platform over time
- Prefer transaction-based, GMV-linked monetization over a pure subscription software model
| Metric | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.7 | 68.5 |
| AI ranki | #839 | #41 |
| Latest closei | $270.88 | $168.68 |
| 1M returni | +19.84% | +18.50% |
| 3M returni | +32.21% | +48.29% |
| 6M returni | +21.30% | +34.05% |
| 1Y returni | -42.30% | +0.99% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.69K (-43.1%) started 2025-10-23 | $10.1K (+1.0%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $3.36K (-66.4%) started 2021-10-25 | $11.84K (+18.4%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $50.68K (+406.8%) started 2016-10-24 | $384.59K (+3745.9%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $13.34B | $219.98B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 92.44 | 114.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.70 | 69.04 |
| Price/Salesi | 11.26 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.45 | 16.08 |
| Analyst targeti | $240.69 | $175.71 |
| Target upsidei | -7.67% | +3.65% |
| Metric | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.80% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 968.10% | 68.10% |
| EPS growthi | +968.10% | +68.10% |
| FCF margini | +19.33% | +11.97% |
| Operating margini | 4.87% | 17.55% |
| Profit margini | 4.26% | 14.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.89% | 15.54% |
| Return on equityi | 7.89% | 15.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.17 | 2.63 |
| Debt/equityi | 14.30 | 1.40 |
| Current ratioi | 1.38 | 5.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.11 | 3.72 |
Over the past year, HUBS and SHOP have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -43.07% | +0.99% |
| CAGRi | -43.11% | +0.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 74.12% | 58.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.45 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.61 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.57% | 46.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 45.23% | 5.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.55% | 23.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.23% | 26.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.10% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.02% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -66.38% | +18.36% |
| CAGRi | -19.61% | +3.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.70% | 66.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.23 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.02% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.21% | 5.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.05% | 48.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 49.70% | 53.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.10% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.02% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +406.79% | +3745.87% |
| CAGRi | +17.63% | +44.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.35% | 59.65% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.84 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 1.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.02% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.21% | 5.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.32% | 28.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.15% | 38.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.10% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.86% | 34.38% |
| Category | HUBS | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | HubSpot, Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Application | Software - Application |
| Core business | A cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform providing marketing, sales, and customer service software primarily for small and mid-sized businesses, with growing AI-powered automation features. | A commerce platform providing the software infrastructure that enables small and mid-sized businesses to build and operate online stores, alongside a growing suite of payments, shipping, and merchant financial services. |
| Investor focus | Subscription customer growth, average subscription revenue per customer, and AI feature adoption across its marketing, sales, and service hubs. | Gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth, merchant subscription and take-rate revenue, and international and enterprise merchant expansion. |
- Comprehensive, integrated CRM platform combining marketing, sales, and customer service tools for SMB customers
- Strong brand recognition and inbound marketing thought leadership within the small and mid-sized business software market
- Actively integrating AI-powered features to enhance customer productivity and platform stickiness
- Dominant position in providing e-commerce infrastructure software for small and mid-sized online merchants
- Growing merchant financial services (payments, capital, shipping) provide expanding monetization beyond core subscriptions
- Strong network effects as more merchants and app developers build on the platform
- Growth increasingly depends on upselling existing customers to higher-tier plans as new customer growth moderates
- Faces competition from both larger CRM providers and other point-solution marketing and sales tools
- Premium valuation reflects growth expectations that require continued platform expansion to justify
- Gross merchandise volume growth is sensitive to overall consumer spending and e-commerce market trends
- Faces competition from other e-commerce platform providers and large marketplaces
- Merchant success and retention depend partly on broader small business economic health
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