RDFN vs Z Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RDFN (Redfin) and Z (Zillow) are both residential real estate technology companies competing in the U.S. home buying and selling market with very different business models — Redfin is a technology-powered brokerage employing agents directly with lower commission rates, while Zillow is the dominant online real estate marketplace with 200M+ monthly visitors monetized primarily through agent lead generation (Premier Agent) and mortgage origination.
RDFN vs Z is technology-powered direct brokerage with lower commission model and employed agents (Redfin's 1-1.5% listing commission, integrated mortgage/title services, and NAR settlement opportunity — employed agent fixed cost structure creating profitability risk in down markets and competing against Zillow's superior consumer traffic) versus dominant real estate marketplace with network effect consumer traffic (Zillow's 200M monthly visitor top-of-funnel, Premier Agent lead revenue, and rental market expansion — NAR settlement buyer agent commission risk and iBuying exit limiting transaction economics capture).
RDFN and Z are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a real estate technology brokerage with a differentiated lower-commission model that may gain market share as seller commission pressure intensifies following the NAR settlement changes to buyer agent compensation
- Value Redfin's employed agent model and technology integration as creating more consistent service quality and data collection than independent contractor brokerage models
- Accept the cyclical risk of an employed agent cost structure in exchange for Redfin's potential to capture a growing share of the home sale market as commission structures become more competitive
- Want exposure to the dominant U.S. real estate marketplace with 200M+ monthly visitors — the highest-traffic consumer real estate destination that generates lead volume for agents, mortgage lenders, and rental properties
- Value Zillow's Premier Agent business as a durable lead generation franchise that captures real estate professional spending tied to the enormous U.S. residential real estate market
- Believe Zillow's rental marketplace expansion represents a large incremental revenue opportunity as the U.S. multifamily rental market's $500B+ annual scale is increasingly mediated through digital platforms
| Metric | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 26.5 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #2453 |
| Latest closei | N/A | $31.46 |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | N/A | $4.3K (-57.0%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | N/A | $3.31K (-66.9%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | N/A | $9.52K (-4.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | N/A | $7.78B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 150.35 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 12.40 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.37 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | N/A | 2.72 |
| Analyst targeti | N/A | $46.00 |
| Target upsidei | N/A | +33.02% |
| Metric | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | 17.90% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | N/A | +8.69% |
| Operating margini | N/A | 4.66% |
| Profit margini | N/A | 1.96% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 1.22% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 1.22% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 1.98 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 12.95 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 1.92 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 1.29 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | N/A | -57.02% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -57.07% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 49.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | -1.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | -2.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 65.24% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 59.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 39.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 44.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 16.54% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 20.96% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | N/A | -66.87% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -19.83% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 52.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | -0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | -0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 73.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 69.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 49.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 51.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 24.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 36.26% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | N/A | -4.84% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -0.50% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 53.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 86.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 84.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 48.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 56.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 26.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 39.72% |
| Category | RDFN | Z |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Redfin Corporation | Zillow Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate - Technology-Powered Brokerage | Communication Services |
| Industry | N/A | Internet Content & Information |
| Core business | Redfin is a technology-powered residential real estate brokerage that employs agents directly (rather than using independent contractor agents like traditional brokerages) and uses technology to enable agents to handle more transactions with lower overhead per transaction. Redfin's differentiation includes offering sellers lower commission rates (historically 1-1.5% listing commission vs. the traditional 2-3%), providing buyers with commission refunds, and offering integrated services (Redfin Mortgage, Title Forward title company) for a more seamless transaction experience. Redfin also attempted iBuying (Redfin Now — direct home purchase) but exited this business in 2022 due to losses. Redfin generates revenue through real estate services fees and mortgage origination. | Zillow Group is the most visited U.S. residential real estate website and app, serving as the primary destination for home buyers, sellers, and renters searching for properties. Zillow's primary revenue comes from: Zillow Premier Agent (fees charged to real estate agents who pay for buyer lead referrals through Zillow's platform — Zillow's largest business); Rentals (landlord advertising fees, tenant screening, and rent payment services for rental listings); and Zillow Home Loans (mortgage origination). Zillow attempted iBuying (Zillow Offers — directly buying and selling homes) but shut it down in 2021 after significant losses when its price prediction algorithm failed during a volatile housing market. Zillow's primary competitive moat is its dominant consumer mindshare — approximately 200+ million unique monthly visitors — which is extremely difficult for competitors to replicate. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Redfin's real estate transaction volume, revenue per transaction, mortgage origination attachment rate, and path to profitability as the company manages its employed agent cost structure through housing market cycles. | Investors track Zillow's IMTF (Integrated Market Total Funnel — measuring how many connections Zillow facilitates between consumers and real estate professionals and lenders), mortgage origination volume, rental market revenue growth, and overall path to Zillow's 'housing super app' vision. |
- Lower commission model attracts cost-conscious sellers in a market where commission pressure has increased — Redfin's 1-1.5% listing commission resonates with sellers who increasingly question the traditional 5-6% total commission structure, particularly following the NAR settlement that has changed buyer agent commission practices
- Employed agent model provides data collection and quality control advantages — Redfin's directly employed agents are easier to train, manage, and collect performance data from than independent contractor agents used by traditional brokerages; technology-driven workflows can be more consistently implemented with employed agents
- Integrated mortgage and title services capture more transaction economics — Redfin Mortgage and Title Forward title services allow Redfin to capture revenue from financing and closing that traditional brokerages lose to third-party lenders and title companies
- Dominant consumer mindshare with 200M+ monthly visitors creates a nearly impenetrable top-of-funnel advantage — Zillow is where home buyers start their search; this consumer traffic is the foundation of every other Zillow business unit; building this audience took 15+ years of brand building and product investment that no new competitor can quickly replicate
- Rental market is a large, growing, underserved digital marketplace — U.S. multifamily rental is a $500B+ annual market; landlord and apartment advertising, tenant screening, and online rent payment represent significant revenue opportunities Zillow is capturing through its rental platform
- Premier Agent network creates a multi-billion dollar lead generation business from existing consumer traffic — approximately 90% of home buyers in the U.S. work with a buyer's agent; these agents pay Zillow for buyer leads; with 200M monthly visitors, Zillow generates enormous lead volume that agents value highly
- Employed agent cost structure creates operating leverage risk in down markets — Redfin's directly employed agents are fixed costs; in a housing market downturn (fewer transactions), Redfin's revenue falls but agent salaries continue; this creates significant profitability pressure in down cycles as experienced in 2022-2023
- Real estate commission compression from NAR settlement creates both opportunity and risk — the 2024 NAR settlement on buyer agent commissions may reshape how buyer agents are paid; Redfin's low-commission model may attract more sellers, but the transition creates uncertainty for all brokerage business models
- Competing against Zillow's market network effect for consumer mindshare — Zillow's dominant home search traffic means most home buyers start on Zillow; Redfin must convert buyers who search on Zillow to Redfin brokerage services
- NAR settlement and commission changes could reduce buyer agent spending on Premier Agent leads — if buyer agents earn less (or are paid differently) post-NAR settlement, their willingness to pay for Zillow Premier Agent leads may decline, directly impacting Zillow's largest revenue segment
- iBuying exit left Zillow with reduced transaction economics vs. its original housing super app vision — Zillow's original 'housing super app' vision involved controlling the end-to-end transaction by buying homes directly; exiting iBuying means Zillow captures a smaller share of transaction economics, remaining primarily a lead generator rather than a transaction principal
- Online real estate lead generation has significant competition from Realtor.com, Homes.com, and Opendoor — despite Zillow's dominant position, competitors spend heavily to capture consumer home search traffic
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