FTDR vs HNI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
FTDR (Frontdoor) and HNI (HNI Corporation) are both home-related consumer/industrial companies with distinct business models — Frontdoor offers subscription home service plans through American Home Shield, generating recurring fee income from homeowners protecting against unexpected system and appliance repair costs, while HNI Corporation manufactures premium hearth products (Heat & Glo, Heatilator fireplaces) for new home construction and renovations alongside HON office furniture.
FTDR vs HNI is asset-light home warranty subscription business with recurring fee income and real estate transaction channel (Frontdoor's American Home Shield membership base, contractor network, and predictable claims cost model — claims inflation, real estate transaction channel vulnerability, and contractor quality risk) versus hearth and office furniture manufacturer with new construction channel leadership (HNI's Heat & Glo/Heatilator brand dominance with homebuilders, renovation replacement demand, and HON office furniture — new home construction cyclicality, remote work office furniture headwinds, and Kimball integration).
FTDR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FTDR has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+19.04% vs +10.18%), though HNI has the better forward P/E setup (10.16x vs 15.70x for FTDR). On fundamentals, HNI is growing revenue faster (120.70%), while FTDR maintains the higher operating margin (28.22%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HNI (+42.01%) than for FTDR (+19.41%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want home services subscription exposure through the market-leading home warranty provider with 75%+ annual customer retention — a capital-light recurring revenue model generating strong free cash flow from homeowners protecting against unexpected repair costs
- Value Frontdoor's contractor network as a managed marketplace that eliminates the need to employ service technicians, keeping capital requirements minimal while providing national service coverage
- Believe Frontdoor's Frontdoor app on-demand home services expansion creates an incremental growth layer beyond the core American Home Shield warranty subscription
- Want home building products exposure through the fireplace/hearth market where Heat & Glo and Heatilator brands have dominant homebuilder relationships that specify HNI's products in a substantial share of new single-family home construction
- Value HNI's hearth renovation/replacement market providing revenue resilience beyond new construction cycles as existing homeowners upgrade or replace their existing fireplaces
- Accept new home construction cyclical sensitivity for the hearth segment's brand leadership position and diversification from HON office furniture serving small and mid-size business markets
| Metric | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.5 | 38.1 |
| AI ranki | #791 | #1356 |
| Latest closei | $78.26 | $47.05 |
| 1M returni | -2.32% | +2.44% |
| 3M returni | +3.18% | +12.33% |
| 6M returni | +29.44% | +34.05% |
| 1Y returni | +19.04% | +10.18% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.9K (+19.0%) started 2025-10-15 | $11.41K (+14.1%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $18.33K (+83.3%) started 2021-10-15 | $17.34K (+73.4%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $26.09K (+160.9%) started 2018-09-13 | $25.45K (+154.5%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.62B | $3.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 21.52 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.70 | 10.16 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.81 | 1.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $97.40 | $69.75 |
| Target upsidei | +19.41% | +42.01% |
| Metric | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.50% | 120.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 18.90% | -31.50% |
| EPS growthi | +18.90% | -31.50% |
| FCF margini | +15.55% | +2.37% |
| Operating margini | 28.22% | 8.16% |
| Profit margini | 12.77% | 0.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | 101.86% | 0.33% |
| Return on equityi | 101.86% | 0.33% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.95% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 503.70% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | 11 yrs |
| Betai | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 416.90 | 91.08 |
| Current ratioi | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.49 | 0.72 |
Over the past year, FTDR and HNI have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.30), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +19.04% | +10.18% |
| CAGRi | +19.06% | +10.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.61% | 35.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.23% | 43.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.84% | 8.14% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.94% | 16.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.09% | 20.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.94% | 8.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.54% | 16.07% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +83.28% | +44.64% |
| CAGRi | +12.88% | +7.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.49% | 32.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.58 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.85% | 47.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.84% | 13.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.22% | 17.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.90% | 21.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.17% | 10.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.05% | 16.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +160.87% | +72.80% |
| CAGRi | +12.59% | +5.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.72% | 36.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.39% | 64.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.84% | 13.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.83% | 23.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.82% | 26.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 29.18% | 19.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.72% | 31.82% |
| Category | FTDR | HNI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Frontdoor, Inc. | HNI Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Personal Services | Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances |
| Core business | Frontdoor is the largest U.S. provider of home service plans (commonly called home warranties), protecting homeowners against unexpected repair and replacement costs for home systems (HVAC, electrical, plumbing) and appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, ovens, washers/dryers). Frontdoor's primary brand is American Home Shield (AHS), which provides annual membership plans for approximately $400-700/year; when a covered system or appliance fails, the homeowner calls Frontdoor, which dispatches a service provider (from its 17,000+ contractor network); the homeowner pays a trade service call fee ($100-125 per service call) and Frontdoor pays the contractor for repair or replacement. Frontdoor also operates the Frontdoor app offering on-demand home services (both warranty-covered and out-of-pocket) and 24/7 video diagnostics with HVAC technicians. Frontdoor was spun off from ServiceMaster Global Holdings in 2018. | HNI Corporation is a U.S. manufacturer and marketer of two primary product categories: Hearth Products (approximately 65% of revenue) — gas and wood-burning fireplaces, stoves, fireplace inserts, and hearth accessories sold under the Heat & Glo, Heatilator, and Majestic Fireplaces brands, serving new home construction (builder channel) and replacement/renovation markets; and Workplace Furnishings (approximately 35% of revenue) — office furniture sold under the HON brand to small and mid-size businesses through dealer networks and direct channels. HNI acquired Kimball International's office furniture business in 2023. HNI's hearth products are used in approximately 35%+ of new single-family home construction as a valued amenity feature. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Frontdoor's customer count (home service plan subscribers), average revenue per customer, claims cost per customer (the primary variable cost), contractor network quality, and free cash flow generation from its capital-light subscription model. | Investors track HNI's hearth segment revenue tied to new home construction (single-family housing starts), fireplace renovation/replacement demand, HON office furniture volumes, and profitability improvement after integrating the Kimball International acquisition. |
- Home service plan subscriptions provide highly predictable recurring revenue — once a homeowner subscribes, the plan auto-renews annually; Frontdoor's customer retention rate is approximately 75%+ annually; the subscription model generates reliable, forecastable cash flows
- Asset-light business model with 17,000+ contractor network eliminates the need for Frontdoor to employ technicians directly — Frontdoor acts as the intermediary, collecting subscription fees and dispatching contracted service providers; capital requirements are minimal compared to owning equipment or employing a large field workforce
- Real estate transaction channel — approximately half of home service plans are sold at real estate closing, when sellers offer buyers a home warranty as a concession; this real estate channel provides new customer acquisition without direct marketing spend
- Hearth brand leadership — Heat & Glo and Heatilator are the most recognized fireplace brands among homebuilders; builder relationships are deep and long-standing; HNI's fireplaces are specified by the homebuilder and installed at construction, creating a builder channel advantage that is difficult for competitors to disrupt
- Hearth renovation market provides repair/replace demand beyond new construction — homeowners renovate existing fireplaces (replacing outdated gas inserts, upgrading to direct-vent models); this replacement demand is less tied to housing starts than new construction
- Office furniture HON brand serves a large small/mid-business market — small businesses furnishing offices, medical offices, and professional spaces buy HON furniture through dealers; HON's value positioning generates consistent demand even in challenging economic environments
- Claims cost inflation — if HVAC systems, appliances, or parts costs rise faster than Frontdoor can reprice its plans, claim costs erode profitability; supply chain disruptions increased appliance replacement costs significantly in 2021-2023
- Real estate transaction channel vulnerability — in a low-home-sale environment (as occurred in 2022-2023 due to rate-driven transaction declines), fewer home warranty plans are purchased at closing, slowing customer acquisition
- Home service plan satisfaction challenges — contractor quality, service wait times, and claim denial disputes affect customer satisfaction and renewal rates; a bad service experience (long wait for an HVAC repair during summer) drives cancellations
- New home construction dependency creates cyclical vulnerability — if single-family housing starts decline (as in 2022-2023 due to rate-driven affordability challenges), HNI's hearth new construction channel revenue falls correspondingly
- Office furniture demand has been structurally affected by remote/hybrid work — permanent shifts toward remote and hybrid work reduce office space demand and therefore office furniture spending for some market segments
- Kimball International acquisition integration — integrating an acquired office furniture business adds complexity; if Kimball's business mix doesn't integrate smoothly, margins may be under pressure during the integration period
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