TD vs RY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RY is Canada's largest bank with the strongest capital markets franchise and high-net-worth banking through City National, while TD is Canada's second-largest bank with a uniquely large U.S. retail banking presence currently constrained by regulatory penalties and an asset cap. Both are premier, well-capitalized Canadian financial institutions.
TD vs RY compares Canada's two largest banks, with RBC offering balanced financial services breadth and TD offering a unique U.S. retail banking franchise currently working through regulatory remediation.
TD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TD leads on both 1-year return (+58.31%) and forward P/E quality (15.10x vs 16.20x for RY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TD is growing revenue faster (11.50%), while RY maintains the higher operating margin (46.44%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +1.36% for TD and -0.30% for RY.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- See value in TD's unique large-scale U.S. retail banking franchise once the regulatory overhang resolves
- Believe the AML compliance remediation creates a temporary discount to TD's long-term franchise value
- Want a contrarian investment in a premier Canadian bank navigating near-term headwinds
- Want exposure to Canada's largest bank with broad financial services across banking, wealth, and capital markets
- Value RBC Capital Markets' contribution to earnings diversification
- Prefer a cleaner regulatory profile compared to TD's current U.S. AML situation
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.5 | 51.1 |
| AI ranki | #452 | #477 |
| Latest closei | $122.33 | $203.30 |
| 1M returni | +3.36% | -2.08% |
| 6M returni | +34.93% | +29.35% |
| 1Y returni | +58.31% | +40.89% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.06K (+60.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.27K (+42.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $28.94K (+189.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $29.19K (+191.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $67.61K (+576.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $72.03K (+620.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $199.03B | $287.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.08 | 18.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.10 | 16.20 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.62 | -0.62 |
| Analyst targeti | $123.13 | $207.23 |
| Target upsidei | +1.36% | -0.30% |
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.50% | 8.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 45.00% | 12.80% |
| EPS growthi | +45.00% | +12.80% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 38.02% | 46.44% |
| Profit margini | 26.62% | 33.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.83% | 16.21% |
| Return on equityi | 12.83% | 16.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.71% | 2.49% |
| Payout ratioi | 46.36% | 41.49% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, TD and RY have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.83), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +58.31% | +40.89% |
| CAGRi | +58.36% | +40.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.62% | 15.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.45 | 1.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.73 | 3.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 7.50% | 10.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.98% | 6.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 1.64% | 2.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 2.37% | 3.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 2.97% | 2.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.27% | 5.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +133.03% | +143.99% |
| CAGRi | +18.46% | +19.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.93% | 18.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.73 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.03 | 1.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.16% | 28.69% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.98% | 6.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.47% | 7.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.87% | 10.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 6.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.38% | 10.19% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +318.35% | +373.12% |
| CAGRi | +15.39% | +16.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.80% | 19.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.98% | 39.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.98% | 6.13% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.71% | 6.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.56% | 9.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.92% | 10.53% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.36% | 23.05% |
| Category | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | Royal Bank of Canada |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Diversified | Banks - Diversified |
| Core business | TD Bank is Canada's second-largest bank by market capitalization, with a uniquely large U.S. retail banking presence through its TD Bank USA subsidiary, alongside Canadian personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and TD Securities wholesale banking. | Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank by market capitalization, providing personal and commercial banking, wealth management, capital markets, investor and treasury services, and insurance across Canada and internationally. |
| Investor focus | Investors track TD's Canadian banking loan growth and margin trends, U.S. banking segment performance and anti-money laundering compliance resolution, and earnings recovery trajectory after significant regulatory penalties. | Investors track RBC's personal and commercial banking loan growth and margins, capital markets performance, and the integration and benefits of its City National Bank acquisition in the U.S. |
- Unique among Canadian banks for its large, established U.S. retail banking footprint along the Eastern Seaboard
- Strong Canadian retail banking franchise with broad customer relationships
- Diversified financial services spanning banking, wealth, and insurance in Canada
- Canada's largest bank by market cap with the broadest financial services franchise
- Strong capital markets (RBC Capital Markets) provides meaningful revenue diversification beyond retail banking
- U.S. wealth management expansion through City National provides high-net-worth banking exposure
- Significant AML (anti-money laundering) compliance failures in the U.S. resulted in substantial fines and growth restrictions on its U.S. banking subsidiary
- U.S. banking segment faces an asset cap imposed by regulators, limiting near-term U.S. growth
- Resolving the U.S. regulatory overhang is critical to restoring investor confidence and growth prospects
- City National Bank (RBC's U.S. private banking acquisition) experienced significant credit losses requiring increased provisions
- Canadian housing market and consumer credit exposure is a systemic risk consideration for all major Canadian banks
- Premium valuation reflects franchise quality expectations
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