TD vs RY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RY is Canada's largest bank with the strongest capital markets franchise and high-net-worth banking through City National, while TD is Canada's second-largest bank with a uniquely large U.S. retail banking presence currently constrained by regulatory penalties and an asset cap. Both are premier, well-capitalized Canadian financial institutions.
TD vs RY compares Canada's two largest banks, with RBC offering balanced financial services breadth and TD offering a unique U.S. retail banking franchise currently working through regulatory remediation.
TD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TD leads on both 1-year return (+55.55%) and forward P/E quality (15.10x vs 16.20x for RY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TD is growing revenue faster (11.50%), while RY maintains the higher operating margin (46.44%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +1.36% for TD and -0.30% for RY.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- See value in TD's unique large-scale U.S. retail banking franchise once the regulatory overhang resolves
- Believe the AML compliance remediation creates a temporary discount to TD's long-term franchise value
- Want a contrarian investment in a premier Canadian bank navigating near-term headwinds
- Want exposure to Canada's largest bank with broad financial services across banking, wealth, and capital markets
- Value RBC Capital Markets' contribution to earnings diversification
- Prefer a cleaner regulatory profile compared to TD's current U.S. AML situation
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.1 | 52.7 |
| AI ranki | #409 | #414 |
| Latest closei | $125.04 | $204.57 |
| 1M returni | +6.81% | +5.21% |
| 3M returni | +3.93% | -2.19% |
| 6M returni | +19.29% | +16.39% |
| 1Y returni | +55.55% | +42.33% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2025-11-03 | $14.42K (+44.2%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $25.55K (+155.5%) started 2021-11-03 | $26.95K (+169.5%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $66.04K (+560.4%) started 2016-11-03 | $71.02K (+610.2%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $199.03B | $287.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.08 | 18.20 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.10 | 16.20 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.62 | -0.62 |
| Analyst targeti | $123.13 | $207.23 |
| Target upsidei | +1.36% | -0.30% |
| Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.50% | 8.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 45.00% | 12.80% |
| EPS growthi | +45.00% | +12.80% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 38.02% | 46.44% |
| Profit margini | 26.62% | 33.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.83% | 16.21% |
| Return on equityi | 12.83% | 16.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.71% | 2.49% |
| Payout ratioi | 46.36% | 41.49% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, TD and RY have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +55.93% | +41.45% |
| CAGRi | +56.16% | +41.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.39% | 16.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.28 | 1.93 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.40 | 2.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 8.76% | 12.01% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.71% | 4.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 1.93% | 2.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 2.77% | 4.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.65% | 2.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.27% | 5.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +106.36% | +125.80% |
| CAGRi | +15.60% | +17.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.05% | 18.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 1.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.16% | 28.69% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.71% | 4.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.57% | 7.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.89% | 10.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 6.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.38% | 10.19% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +310.16% | +368.91% |
| CAGRi | +15.16% | +16.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.90% | 19.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.98% | 39.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.71% | 4.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.75% | 7.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.57% | 9.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.92% | 10.53% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.36% | 23.05% |
| Category | TD | RY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | Royal Bank of Canada |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Diversified | Banks - Diversified |
| Core business | TD Bank is Canada's second-largest bank by market capitalization, with a uniquely large U.S. retail banking presence through its TD Bank USA subsidiary, alongside Canadian personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and TD Securities wholesale banking. | Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank by market capitalization, providing personal and commercial banking, wealth management, capital markets, investor and treasury services, and insurance across Canada and internationally. |
| Investor focus | Investors track TD's Canadian banking loan growth and margin trends, U.S. banking segment performance and anti-money laundering compliance resolution, and earnings recovery trajectory after significant regulatory penalties. | Investors track RBC's personal and commercial banking loan growth and margins, capital markets performance, and the integration and benefits of its City National Bank acquisition in the U.S. |
- Unique among Canadian banks for its large, established U.S. retail banking footprint along the Eastern Seaboard
- Strong Canadian retail banking franchise with broad customer relationships
- Diversified financial services spanning banking, wealth, and insurance in Canada
- Canada's largest bank by market cap with the broadest financial services franchise
- Strong capital markets (RBC Capital Markets) provides meaningful revenue diversification beyond retail banking
- U.S. wealth management expansion through City National provides high-net-worth banking exposure
- Significant AML (anti-money laundering) compliance failures in the U.S. resulted in substantial fines and growth restrictions on its U.S. banking subsidiary
- U.S. banking segment faces an asset cap imposed by regulators, limiting near-term U.S. growth
- Resolving the U.S. regulatory overhang is critical to restoring investor confidence and growth prospects
- City National Bank (RBC's U.S. private banking acquisition) experienced significant credit losses requiring increased provisions
- Canadian housing market and consumer credit exposure is a systemic risk consideration for all major Canadian banks
- Premium valuation reflects franchise quality expectations
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