BMO vs TD: Bank of Montreal vs TD Bank Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Bank of Montreal has expanded its US commercial banking through BMO Harris and Bank of the West, while TD Bank is facing a significant US regulatory challenge from AML violations with an asset cap imposed by US regulators. BMO is executing a straightforward US integration; TD is managing a regulatory remediation that limits near-term US growth.
BMO vs TD is US commercial banking integration versus US regulatory remediation — BMO wins if Bank of the West integration delivers earnings and the US commercial book performs; TD wins if AML remediation is completed, the asset cap is lifted, and TD's US East Coast franchise re-accelerates.
TD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+56.11% vs +35.23%), though BMO has the better forward P/E setup (14.30x vs 15.10x for TD). On fundamentals, BMO is growing revenue faster (12.00%), while TD maintains the higher operating margin (38.02%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +0.51% for BMO and +1.36% for TD.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a Canadian bank executing a straightforward US commercial banking acquisition integration
- want Midwest US commercial banking exposure without ongoing regulatory remediation risk
- value BMO's cleaner near-term operational story vs TD's complex AML resolution timeline
- believe Bank of the West synergies will materialize and improve US profitability over 2-3 years
- believe TD's AML remediation will complete and the US asset cap will be lifted, unlocking US franchise growth
- value TD's large US East Coast retail banking network as a durable, long-duration asset
- want exposure to the Schwab 13% stake as a valuable US brokerage investment alongside banking
- are comfortable with near-term US growth constraints in exchange for a potentially larger re-rating when the cap is lifted
| Metric | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 52.0 |
| AI ranki | #948 | #441 |
| Latest closei | $166.12 | $120.28 |
| 1M returni | -3.76% | +0.43% |
| 3M returni | -8.07% | -2.01% |
| 6M returni | +10.98% | +15.73% |
| 1Y returni | +35.23% | +56.11% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.73K (+37.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $15.95K (+59.5%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $23.35K (+133.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $25.63K (+156.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $61.21K (+512.1%) started 2016-10-17 | $64.28K (+542.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $118.42B | $199.03B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.26 | 18.08 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.30 | 15.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | -0.04 | 1.62 |
| Analyst targeti | $170.73 | $123.13 |
| Target upsidei | +0.51% | +1.36% |
| Metric | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.00% | 11.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -24.20% | 45.00% |
| EPS growthi | -24.20% | +45.00% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 30.50% | 38.02% |
| Profit margini | 25.66% | 26.62% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.57% | 12.83% |
| Return on equityi | 10.57% | 12.83% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.95% | 2.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 54.44% | 46.36% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, BMO and TD have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.81), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +35.23% | +56.11% |
| CAGRi | +35.26% | +56.15% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.28% | 18.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.37 | 2.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.97 | 3.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.51% | 8.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.60% | 2.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.97% | 1.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.51% | 2.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.75% | 3.65% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.98% | 6.27% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +88.53% | +106.94% |
| CAGRi | +13.54% | +15.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.46% | 20.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.29% | 31.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.60% | 2.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.38% | 14.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.56% | 17.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.50% | 6.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.19% | 10.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +280.31% | +299.24% |
| CAGRi | +14.30% | +14.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.78% | 21.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.97% | 41.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.60% | 2.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.29% | 10.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.22% | 14.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.12% | 13.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.61% | 25.36% |
| Category | BMO | TD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Bank of Montreal | The Toronto-Dominion Bank |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Diversified | Banks - Diversified |
| Core business | Canadian bank with BMO Harris US commercial banking, BMO Capital Markets, and Canadian personal and commercial banking. BMO acquired Bank of the West from BNP Paribas in 2023 to expand its US presence. | Canada's second-largest bank with the largest US retail banking presence of any Canadian bank through TD Bank US (approximately 1,100 US branches from Maine to Florida). TD also owns 13% of Schwab. TD settled with US regulators in 2024 for $3B over BSA/AML failures. |
| Investor focus | Bank of the West integration progress, US commercial banking profitability, credit quality normalization, and Canadian mortgage performance. | AML remediation and US regulatory consent order timeline, US franchise recovery, Canadian personal banking, and Schwab equity stake value. |
- US expansion through BMO Harris and Bank of the West creates one of the larger Canadian bank US franchises
- BMO Capital Markets provides investment banking and trading revenue alongside Canadian and US commercial banking
- Midwest US commercial banking focus is in a more stable regional economy vs coastal CRE concentration
- TD's US retail banking franchise (Maine to Florida East Coast) is the largest US banking presence of any Canadian bank
- TD's 13% stake in Charles Schwab provides valuable exposure to the US brokerage market
- Strong Canadian retail banking franchise with large personal and commercial market share
- Bank of the West integration cost and timeline risk
- US commercial real estate credit quality exposure
- Canadian mortgage portfolio is exposed to housing market stress as mortgage renewals hit higher rates
- TD paid $3B in 2024 AML penalties and faces a US regulatory asset cap — the most significant overhang on the stock
- US asset cap limits TD's ability to grow its US balance sheet until regulators lift the cap
- AML remediation requires significant compliance investment and management attention for multiple years
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