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PREMIUM RESEARCH REPORT
Outlook: Bullish

Nasdaq (NDAQ) In-Depth Stock Report

An exchange and technology franchise pivoting from trading-venue-first to a diversified capital-markets solutions business, anchored by the Adenza acquisition.

Published 2026-09-16·Updated 2026-09-16·Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges

Investment Summary

Every headline number this report produces, collected in one place before the analysis that derives them. All figures are computed live at page load, so this block reflects the market as of the moment you opened the page.

Current Price
$94.69
Outlook
Bullish
(directional lean, see note below)
Valuation Verdict
Within fair value
(vs. our relevance-weighted range)
Fair Value Range
$36 – $165
12-Month Price Target
$104.99
(model + consensus blend)
Expected Return to Target
+10.9%
AI Score
52 / 100
(vs. our covered universe)
Risk Rating
Moderate
(risk factor 62/100, lower is riskier)
Target Confidence
High
Horizon
12 months
(target and scenarios)
Why we hold this view
  • Solutions growth is consistent.
  • Listings franchise is durable.
  • Adenza synergies to be realized.
  • Deleveraging path is on track.
"Outlook" is a plain-language summary of our expected return to the 12-month price target (Bullish ≥ 8% upside, Bearish ≤ 8% downside, Neutral in between; falls back to the fair-value comparison when no target is available) — it is a restatement of the figures above, not a new signal, and like them is not a buy or sell recommendation. "Valuation Verdict" compares the live price to our relevance-weighted fair-value range and is a statement about our own model's output, not a buy or sell recommendation — see the Investor Decision Framework near the end of this report. The risk rating is derived from AI Score risk factor rather than assigned by hand. Expected return measures the gap to the 12-month blended target only; it is not a forecast of total return and excludes any dividend.
NDAQ in 60 Seconds
  • NDAQ is transforming into a capital-markets solutions business anchored by Adenza.
  • Listings and options are the durable franchises; solutions is the growth vector.
  • Deleveraging is the near-term financial focus.
What's inside this report
  • Historically an equity and options exchange operator; now a diversified capital-markets solutions business.
  • Adenza acquisition materially expanded regulatory-technology and risk-management offerings.
  • Listings franchise remains a durable competitive advantage.
  • Data and analytics products are a growing revenue contributor.
  • Solutions Businesses (Market Technology, Investment Intelligence) are the higher-growth vectors.

Executive Summary

Nasdaq has been transforming from a trading-venue operator into a diversified capital-markets technology and solutions provider — the Adenza acquisition was the largest step in that direction.

Listings franchise remains a durable moat with strong technology-company brand association.

Solutions revenue growth has been more consistent than trading revenue.

Regulatory technology has been a rapid growth area as compliance requirements expand globally.

The equity debate is on integration execution and multiple sustainability.

Industry & Market Backdrop

The broader competitive and macro environment NDAQ operates in — context a pure valuation table can't convey on its own.

Exchange consolidation has been the multi-year theme.

Regulatory technology demand has grown consistently.

Trading volume cyclicality remains a factor for exchange revenue.

Listings competition among US venues remains modest.

Live Key Statistics

Pulled live from BriMindInvest's market-data pipeline at page load — the same feed that powers /analysis/NDAQ. Fields the pipeline doesn't return this load are omitted rather than shown blank.

Current Price
$94.69
Market Cap
$52.93B
Trailing P/E
27.61
Forward P/E
20.24
52-Week High
$101.79
52-Week Low
$76.55
Beta
0.97
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+14.9%
Operating Margin
+49.3%
Return on Equity
+16.5%
Debt / Equity
77.69
Dividend Yield
+1.24%

Business Overview

Capital Access Platforms: listings, IR services, ESG solutions.

Market Services: trading and clearing across equities, options, fixed income.

Solutions (post-Adenza): financial crime, regulatory tech, risk management.

Segment Deep Dive

A closer look at each reporting segment individually, rather than treating the business as a single undifferentiated revenue line.

Listings and Capital Access

The listings franchise remains the primary brand asset and a durable moat. IR services and ESG offerings extend the client relationship.

Solutions (Adenza and legacy)

The rapid growth vector. Regulatory technology, financial crime, and risk management address expanding compliance requirements globally.

Market Services

Trading and clearing revenue is cyclical with volume. Options revenue has been more consistent than equity trading revenue.

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Philosophy

How management has historically chosen to deploy cash — buybacks, dividends, R&D, and acquisitions — and what that reveals about capital discipline.

Dividend has grown consistently.

Buybacks were paused for Adenza deleveraging; resumption path is on track.

Adenza acquisition added meaningful leverage; management has a clear deleveraging plan.

Capex is modest.

Management & Governance

Leadership, incentive alignment, and governance structure — factors that shape execution risk independent of the underlying business model.

CEO Adena Friedman has driven the strategic pivot.

Board has strong exchange and technology expertise.

Governance disclosures are strong.

See exactly how we get NDAQ's fair-value range

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Table: Method, Relevance, Implied Value
MethodRelevanceImplied Value
Our DCF ModelHigh
Our P/E BasedMedium
Our Book Value BasedLow
Graham NumberLow
PEG Ratio BasedMedium
ROIC BasedLow
FCF Yield BasedHigh

Forecast Revenue and Free Cash Flow

5-Year Monte Carlo Simulation

Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Nasdaq report:

  • Fair value from 7 methods, weighted by relevance to this business
  • 5-year financial forecast and DCF/earnings sensitivity grids
  • Decomposed AI Score, Monte Carlo simulation, and institutional/analyst data

$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case

Bull Case
  • Solutions growth is consistent.
  • Listings franchise is durable.
  • Adenza synergies to be realized.
  • Deleveraging path is on track.
Bear Case
  • Adenza integration risk.
  • Trading volume cyclicality.
  • Leverage limits flexibility near-term.

Related Reports

In-depth reports for other names in Nasdaq's comparable set.

Intercontinental Exchange
ICE In-Depth Report
CME Group
CME In-Depth Report
Cboe Global Markets
CBOE In-Depth Report

3 catalysts and 3 risks we're tracking for NDAQ

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Table: Catalyst, Expected Impact, Timeframe
CatalystExpected ImpactTimeframe

Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Nasdaq report:

  • Catalyst list, each tagged with expected impact and timing
  • Risk register scored by probability and severity
  • 3 key metrics to watch before the next earnings report

$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.

What Would Change Our Mind?

Specific, falsifiable triggers — not vague sentiment — that would move us toward or away from the bull case above.

Would Turn Us More Bullish
  • Adenza synergies exceed plan
  • Trading volumes recover
  • IPO market reopens
Would Turn Us More Cautious
  • Adenza integration stumbles
  • IPO drought extends
  • Trading volume declines

Competitive Positioning

Listings franchise is a durable moat.

Solutions business is competitive with FIS, LSEG, and other regtech providers.

Options trading share is a structural strength.

Investor Decision Framework

A process for using this report, not a recommendation — how to weigh valuation, scenario spread, and your own risk tolerance.

  • Own it as an exchange-and-solutions compounder.
  • Position size for Adenza integration execution.

The BriMindInvest Edge

Why this report is different from asking a general-purpose AI chatbot about the stock.

  • Every valuation number on this page is computed live from current market data through our own DCF, scoring, and Monte Carlo engines — not summarized or paraphrased from other analysts' reports the way a general chatbot would.
  • The relevance-weighted fair value, reverse-DCF market-implied growth, fundamentals-based Monte Carlo, and scenario tables above are proprietary calculations you cannot get by asking a general-purpose AI for "NDAQ fair value" — those answers come from web summaries of other people's price targets, not a live, disclosed-assumption model.
  • Our 1-year price-target model has a real, published backtest (see Model Track Record above where covered) — we show our work and our error rate rather than asserting accuracy.
  • Numbers here are refreshed every time you load the page, not cached from a training cutoff months or years in the past.

Data Sources & Methodology

Valuation, price, and financial-statistics data in this report are fetched live from our production market-data pipeline (Yahoo Finance and Finnhub) at the time you loaded this page. The AI Score is a percentile ranking against our full covered stock universe, recomputed nightly. The fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios randomize growth rate, discount rate, and terminal growth around the same disclosed DCF assumptions used in the valuation table — they are not derived from resampled historical stock returns. The secondary historical-volatility simulation (2,000 bootstrap paths, seeded for reproducibility) uses the stock's own historical monthly returns and is shown separately because it measures a different thing (volatility) than the fundamentals-based model (intrinsic value).

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All valuation models, price targets, and simulations are estimates based on historical and current data; actual results will differ, potentially substantially. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. See our full Methodology and Disclaimer.

Free vs. Premium: What You're Getting

Free Article
  • Narrative overview and general bull/bear framing
  • Headline price and basic company facts
  • No live valuation model, AI Score, or forecast table
This Premium Report
  • Relevance-weighted fair value range and reverse-DCF market-implied growth
  • 5-year financial forecast, DCF sensitivity grid, and Bull/Base/Bear scenario table
  • Fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and decomposed AI Score with sub-factor components
  • Real, published backtested accuracy where NDAQ is in our coverage set

Glossary of Key Terms

Plain-English definitions for the terms used throughout this report, for readers newer to equity valuation.

Regulatory technology
Software addressing compliance, financial crime, and risk-management requirements.
Adenza
Regulatory technology and risk management platform acquired by Nasdaq.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Nasdaq buy Adenza?
To accelerate the pivot toward diversified capital-markets solutions and to reduce dependence on trading volume cyclicality.
How exposed is NDAQ to IPO cycles?
Listings revenue is exposed but stable listing fees on existing companies provide a base.
Is the leverage concerning?
It is elevated after Adenza but manageable given free cash flow generation; the deleveraging path is on track.
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Data sources & disclosures: Financial data and metrics cited in this article are sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations materials. Market prices and fundamental data are provided by financial market data providers. Market size estimates and industry projections are sourced from industry research and analyst reports. Figures reflect information available at the time of writing and may have changed. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please read our full Disclaimer and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.