SHOP vs ADP Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Shopify's faster-growing but more cyclical merchant commerce business against ADP's stickier, recurring payroll and HR outsourcing revenue.
Use this Shopify vs ADP comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
SHOP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHOP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-0.04% vs -7.11%), though ADP has the better forward P/E setup (21.46x vs 59.15x for SHOP). On fundamentals, SHOP is growing revenue faster (33.70%), while ADP maintains the higher operating margin (23.46%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHOP (+17.96%) than for ADP (-0.07%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 72.7 | 47.7 |
| AI ranki | #29 | #632 |
| Latest closei | $145.09 | $277.62 |
| 1M returni | +0.59% | +2.79% |
| 6M returni | +7.64% | +24.66% |
| 1Y returni | -0.04% | -7.11% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10K (-0.0%) started 2025-09-04 | $9.22K (-7.8%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.44K (-5.6%) started 2021-09-07 | $16.07K (+60.7%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $335.93K (+3259.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $45.7K (+357.0%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $188.28B | $114.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 98.03 | 26.25 |
| Forward P/Ei | 59.15 | 21.46 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 6.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.71 | 5.26 |
| Analyst targeti | $171.15 | $287.27 |
| Target upsidei | +17.96% | -0.07% |
| Metric | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 33.70% | 6.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.10% | 9.80% |
| EPS growthi | +68.10% | +9.80% |
| FCF margini | +11.97% | +23.89% |
| Operating margini | 17.55% | 23.46% |
| Profit margini | 14.53% | 20.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.54% | 72.24% |
| Return on equityi | 15.54% | 72.24% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.37% |
| Betai | 2.62 | 0.82 |
| Debt/equityi | 1.40 | 91.44 |
| Current ratioi | 5.35 | 1.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.72 | 0.15 |
Over the past year, SHOP and ADP have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.33), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -0.04% | -7.83% |
| CAGRi | -0.04% | -7.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.56% | 27.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | -0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | -0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 46.71% | 37.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 7.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.09% | 18.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.89% | 20.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.62% | 6.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.56% | 10.27% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -5.58% | +48.32% |
| CAGRi | -1.14% | +8.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.50% | 22.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.82% | 42.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 15.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.16% | 11.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.55% | 14.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.59% | 9.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.38% | 12.17% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +3259.34% | +272.20% |
| CAGRi | +42.14% | +14.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.43% | 24.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.22 | 0.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.82% | 42.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 15.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.67% | 8.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.85% | 12.21% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.59% | 15.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.38% | 22.45% |
| Category | SHOP | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SHOP | ADP |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Application | Software - Application |
| Core business | Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. |
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