Sempra (SRE) In-Depth Stock Report
A utility holding company with California and Texas regulated utilities and LNG and infrastructure, priced on Oncor growth and capital allocation.
Investment Summary
Every headline number this report produces, collected in one place before the analysis that derives them. All figures are computed live at page load, so this block reflects the market as of the moment you opened the page.
- Oncor grows rapidly.
- LNG projects proceed.
- California outcomes are stable.
- Portfolio simplification unlocks value.
- Sempra owns California utilities, Oncor, and LNG infrastructure.
- Texas growth and capital plans drive earnings.
- California regulation and project risk are the main concerns.
- EPS growth and rate base are the key numbers.
- Sempra owns San Diego Gas & Electric, SoCalGas, and a large stake in Oncor Electric Delivery in Texas.
- Oncor serves a fast-growing region and is a key growth driver.
- Sempra Infrastructure includes LNG projects such as Port Arthur.
- The company has been reviewing parts of its infrastructure portfolio.
- The equity debate is how well Texas growth and California regulation balance risks and how it funds its capital plan.
Executive Summary
Sempra's utilities earn regulated returns, providing a stable base with growth from capital investment.
Oncor's rate base is growing quickly due to population and industrial growth in Texas.
The infrastructure segment offers LNG and other projects with growth and risk.
California utilities carry wildfire and regulatory risks that influence the valuation.
The realistic thesis: a growth utility with Texas exposure and LNG optionality, where results depend on regulators, project execution, and financing.
Industry & Market Backdrop
The broader competitive and macro environment SRE operates in — context a pure valuation table can't convey on its own.
Texas load growth from data centers and industry is strong.
California wildfire liability rules affect utility risk.
LNG demand supports export projects.
Interest rates influence utility valuations.
Affordability concerns affect regulatory decisions.
Live Key Statistics
Pulled live from BriMindInvest's market-data pipeline at page load — the same feed that powers /analysis/SRE. Fields the pipeline doesn't return this load are omitted rather than shown blank.
Business Overview
San Diego Gas & Electric.
Southern California Gas Company.
Oncor Electric Delivery in Texas.
Sempra Infrastructure including LNG and Mexican assets.
Segment Deep Dive
A closer look at each reporting segment individually, rather than treating the business as a single undifferentiated revenue line.
SDG&E and SoCalGas provide stable regulated earnings. Regulatory and wildfire risks shape valuation.
A large, fast-growing transmission and distribution utility. It has a big capital plan and strong rate base growth.
LNG and energy infrastructure projects add growth potential. They carry higher execution and market risk.
Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Philosophy
How management has historically chosen to deploy cash — buybacks, dividends, R&D, and acquisitions — and what that reveals about capital discipline.
The company has a large multi-year capital plan.
It pays a growing dividend.
Asset sales and partnerships help fund growth.
Credit metrics are managed to maintain ratings.
Management & Governance
Leadership, incentive alignment, and governance structure — factors that shape execution risk independent of the underlying business model.
Leadership is focused on portfolio simplification and Texas growth.
Management has announced reviews of portions of the infrastructure business.
Governance is conventional; review the proxy for details.
Capital allocation and project execution are main tasks.
See exactly how we get SRE's fair-value range
| Method | Relevance | Implied Value |
|---|---|---|
| Our P/E Based | Medium | |
| Our Book Value Based | Medium | |
| Graham Number | Medium | |
| PEG Ratio Based | Low | |
| ROIC Based | Medium |
Forecast Revenue and Free Cash Flow
5-Year Monte Carlo Simulation
Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Sempra report:
- Fair value from 7 methods, weighted by relevance to this business
- 5-year financial forecast and DCF/earnings sensitivity grids
- Decomposed AI Score, Monte Carlo simulation, and institutional/analyst data
$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
- Oncor grows rapidly.
- LNG projects proceed.
- California outcomes are stable.
- Portfolio simplification unlocks value.
- Dividend grows.
- California wildfire or regulatory setbacks.
- LNG project delays.
- Higher rates hurt valuation.
- Funding needs dilute returns.
- Texas regulation tightens.
Related Reports
In-depth reports for other names in Sempra's comparable set.
4 catalysts and 4 risks we're tracking for SRE
| Catalyst | Expected Impact | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Sempra report:
- Catalyst list, each tagged with expected impact and timing
- Risk register scored by probability and severity
- 4 key metrics to watch before the next earnings report
$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.
What Would Change Our Mind?
Specific, falsifiable triggers — not vague sentiment — that would move us toward or away from the bull case above.
- Oncor's rate base compounds
- LNG projects finish on schedule
- California risks stay contained
- California setbacks
- LNG delays
- Financing costs rise
Competitive Positioning
Sempra's moat is regulated utility franchises and scarce LNG export sites.
NextEra, Southern, Duke, and PG&E are peers in different markets.
Oncor's growth is a differentiator.
The vulnerability is California regulation and project risk.
Investor Decision Framework
A process for using this report, not a recommendation — how to weigh valuation, scenario spread, and your own risk tolerance.
- Own it if you want regulated growth with Texas and LNG exposure.
- Skip it if you fear California regulatory risk.
- Track Oncor growth and LNG progress.
The BriMindInvest Edge
Why this report is different from asking a general-purpose AI chatbot about the stock.
- Every valuation number on this page is computed live from current market data through our own DCF, scoring, and Monte Carlo engines — not summarized or paraphrased from other analysts' reports the way a general chatbot would.
- The relevance-weighted fair value, reverse-DCF market-implied growth, fundamentals-based Monte Carlo, and scenario tables above are proprietary calculations you cannot get by asking a general-purpose AI for "SRE fair value" — those answers come from web summaries of other people's price targets, not a live, disclosed-assumption model.
- Our 1-year price-target model has a real, published backtest (see Model Track Record above where covered) — we show our work and our error rate rather than asserting accuracy.
- Numbers here are refreshed every time you load the page, not cached from a training cutoff months or years in the past.
Data Sources & Methodology
Valuation, price, and financial-statistics data in this report are fetched live from our production market-data pipeline (Yahoo Finance and Finnhub) at the time you loaded this page. The AI Score is a percentile ranking against our full covered stock universe, recomputed nightly. The fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios randomize growth rate, discount rate, and terminal growth around the same disclosed DCF assumptions used in the valuation table — they are not derived from resampled historical stock returns. The secondary historical-volatility simulation (2,000 bootstrap paths, seeded for reproducibility) uses the stock's own historical monthly returns and is shown separately because it measures a different thing (volatility) than the fundamentals-based model (intrinsic value).
This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All valuation models, price targets, and simulations are estimates based on historical and current data; actual results will differ, potentially substantially. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. See our full Methodology and Disclaimer.
Free vs. Premium: What You're Getting
- Narrative overview and general bull/bear framing
- Headline price and basic company facts
- No live valuation model, AI Score, or forecast table
- Relevance-weighted fair value range and reverse-DCF market-implied growth
- 5-year financial forecast, DCF sensitivity grid, and Bull/Base/Bear scenario table
- Fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and decomposed AI Score with sub-factor components
- Real, published backtested accuracy where SRE is in our coverage set
Glossary of Key Terms
Plain-English definitions for the terms used throughout this report, for readers newer to equity valuation.
Frequently Asked Questions
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