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PREMIUM RESEARCH REPORT
Outlook: Neutral

Southern Copper (SCCO) In-Depth Stock Report

A low-cost copper producer with major reserves in Peru and Mexico, priced on copper prices and long-term growth projects.

Published 2026-09-21·Updated 2026-09-21·Basic MaterialsCopper

Investment Summary

Every headline number this report produces, collected in one place before the analysis that derives them. All figures are computed live at page load, so this block reflects the market as of the moment you opened the page.

Current Price
$198.06
Outlook
Neutral
(directional lean, see note below)
Valuation Verdict
Above fair value
(vs. our relevance-weighted range)
Fair Value Range
$15 – $182
12-Month Price Target
$199.62
(model + consensus blend)
Expected Return to Target
+0.8%
AI Score
62 / 100
(vs. our covered universe)
Risk Rating
High
(risk factor 32/100, lower is riskier)
Target Confidence
High
Horizon
12 months
(target and scenarios)
Why we hold this view
  • Copper prices rise.
  • Projects proceed.
  • Costs stay low.
  • Dividends remain high.
"Outlook" is a plain-language summary of our expected return to the 12-month price target (Bullish ≥ 8% upside, Bearish ≤ 8% downside, Neutral in between; falls back to the fair-value comparison when no target is available) — it is a restatement of the figures above, not a new signal, and like them is not a buy or sell recommendation. "Valuation Verdict" compares the live price to our relevance-weighted fair-value range and is a statement about our own model's output, not a buy or sell recommendation — see the Investor Decision Framework near the end of this report. The risk rating is derived from AI Score risk factor rather than assigned by hand. Expected return measures the gap to the 12-month blended target only; it is not a forecast of total return and excludes any dividend.
SCCO in 60 Seconds
  • Southern Copper is a low-cost copper miner with huge reserves.
  • Copper prices and growth projects drive results.
  • Copper declines and Peru risk are the main concerns.
  • Cash cost and EBITDA margin are the key numbers.
What's inside this report
  • Southern Copper mines copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver in Peru and Mexico.
  • It holds among the largest copper reserves in the world.
  • It is a low-cost producer with high margins and strong dividend payouts.
  • The company is majority-owned by Grupo Mexico.
  • The equity debate is how copper prices, project timing in Peru, and political risk affect long-term value.

Executive Summary

Copper demand is supported by electrification, grid expansion, and data centers, while supply growth is constrained.

Southern Copper's large reserves provide decades of production and growth options.

Low costs and by-product credits from molybdenum and silver support margins.

Peru's social and political tensions complicate project development.

The realistic thesis: a high-quality copper producer with a generous dividend and premium valuation, where copper prices and Peru risk drive results.

Industry & Market Backdrop

The broader competitive and macro environment SCCO operates in — context a pure valuation table can't convey on its own.

Copper demand is linked to construction, power, and electric vehicles.

New mine supply is limited, and grades are declining globally.

Tariffs and trade policy influence copper flows.

Peru and Mexico face political and social risks.

China is the largest consumer, so its economy matters.

Live Key Statistics

Pulled live from BriMindInvest's market-data pipeline at page load — the same feed that powers /analysis/SCCO. Fields the pipeline doesn't return this load are omitted rather than shown blank.

Current Price
$198.06
Market Cap
$167.23B
Trailing P/E
29.69
Forward P/E
27.22
52-Week High
$220.78
52-Week Low
$106.05
Beta
1.15
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+40.6%
Operating Margin
+61.2%
Return on Equity
+49.9%
Debt / Equity
67.86
Dividend Yield
+2.25%

Business Overview

Mines in Peru, including Toquepala and Cuajone.

Mines in Mexico, including Buenavista.

Smelting and refining operations.

Growth projects including Tia Maria and others.

Segment Deep Dive

A closer look at each reporting segment individually, rather than treating the business as a single undifferentiated revenue line.

Peru operations

Include large copper mines and smelters. Community relations affect operations and projects.

Mexico operations

Include large mines and zinc production. They provide diversification.

Growth projects

A pipeline of projects that could add copper volume. Permitting and social acceptance are hurdles.

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Philosophy

How management has historically chosen to deploy cash — buybacks, dividends, R&D, and acquisitions — and what that reveals about capital discipline.

The company pays a large dividend based on cash flow.

Capital expenditure funds expansions and projects.

Balance sheet is solid with modest net debt.

Majority owner influences capital allocation.

Management & Governance

Leadership, incentive alignment, and governance structure — factors that shape execution risk independent of the underlying business model.

Leadership is controlled by the majority holder.

Management emphasizes low-cost operations and growth.

Governance includes related-party considerations; review filings for details.

Project execution in Peru is a key task.

See exactly how we get SCCO's fair-value range

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Table: Method, Relevance, Implied Value
MethodRelevanceImplied Value
Our DCF ModelHigh
Our P/E BasedMedium
Our Book Value BasedMedium
Graham NumberMedium
PEG Ratio BasedLow
ROIC BasedMedium
FCF Yield BasedHigh

Forecast Revenue and Free Cash Flow

5-Year Monte Carlo Simulation

Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Southern Copper report:

  • Fair value from 7 methods, weighted by relevance to this business
  • 5-year financial forecast and DCF/earnings sensitivity grids
  • Decomposed AI Score, Monte Carlo simulation, and institutional/analyst data

$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case

Bull Case
  • Copper prices rise.
  • Projects proceed.
  • Costs stay low.
  • Dividends remain high.
  • Electrification demand grows.
Bear Case
  • Copper prices fall.
  • Political disruption in Peru.
  • Project delays.
  • Premium valuation contracts.
  • Tariff or trade disruptions.

Related Reports

In-depth reports for other names in Southern Copper's comparable set.

Freeport-McMoRan
FCX In-Depth Report
Newmont
NEM In-Depth Report

4 catalysts and 4 risks we're tracking for SCCO

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Table: Catalyst, Expected Impact, Timeframe
CatalystExpected ImpactTimeframe

Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this Southern Copper report:

  • Catalyst list, each tagged with expected impact and timing
  • Risk register scored by probability and severity
  • 4 key metrics to watch before the next earnings report

$3.99 is less than one bad options trade — see the model before you commit real money. And it goes straight to the small team building this, not a hedge fund's marketing budget.

What Would Change Our Mind?

Specific, falsifiable triggers — not vague sentiment — that would move us toward or away from the bull case above.

Would Turn Us More Bullish
  • Copper rises
  • Projects come online
  • Dividends stay high
Would Turn Us More Cautious
  • Copper falls
  • Political unrest in Peru
  • Valuation drops

Competitive Positioning

Southern Copper's moat is a large, low-cost reserve base.

Freeport-McMoRan, BHP, Rio Tinto, and Teck compete.

Long reserve life is rare in the industry.

The vulnerability is copper price and political risk.

Investor Decision Framework

A process for using this report, not a recommendation — how to weigh valuation, scenario spread, and your own risk tolerance.

  • Own it if you want low-cost copper exposure with dividends.
  • Skip it if you fear political risk.
  • Track copper prices and projects.

The BriMindInvest Edge

Why this report is different from asking a general-purpose AI chatbot about the stock.

  • Every valuation number on this page is computed live from current market data through our own DCF, scoring, and Monte Carlo engines — not summarized or paraphrased from other analysts' reports the way a general chatbot would.
  • The relevance-weighted fair value, reverse-DCF market-implied growth, fundamentals-based Monte Carlo, and scenario tables above are proprietary calculations you cannot get by asking a general-purpose AI for "SCCO fair value" — those answers come from web summaries of other people's price targets, not a live, disclosed-assumption model.
  • Our 1-year price-target model has a real, published backtest (see Model Track Record above where covered) — we show our work and our error rate rather than asserting accuracy.
  • Numbers here are refreshed every time you load the page, not cached from a training cutoff months or years in the past.

Data Sources & Methodology

Valuation, price, and financial-statistics data in this report are fetched live from our production market-data pipeline (Yahoo Finance and Finnhub) at the time you loaded this page. The AI Score is a percentile ranking against our full covered stock universe, recomputed nightly. The fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios randomize growth rate, discount rate, and terminal growth around the same disclosed DCF assumptions used in the valuation table — they are not derived from resampled historical stock returns. The secondary historical-volatility simulation (2,000 bootstrap paths, seeded for reproducibility) uses the stock's own historical monthly returns and is shown separately because it measures a different thing (volatility) than the fundamentals-based model (intrinsic value).

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All valuation models, price targets, and simulations are estimates based on historical and current data; actual results will differ, potentially substantially. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. See our full Methodology and Disclaimer.

Free vs. Premium: What You're Getting

Free Article
  • Narrative overview and general bull/bear framing
  • Headline price and basic company facts
  • No live valuation model, AI Score, or forecast table
This Premium Report
  • Relevance-weighted fair value range and reverse-DCF market-implied growth
  • 5-year financial forecast, DCF sensitivity grid, and Bull/Base/Bear scenario table
  • Fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and decomposed AI Score with sub-factor components
  • Real, published backtested accuracy where SCCO is in our coverage set

Glossary of Key Terms

Plain-English definitions for the terms used throughout this report, for readers newer to equity valuation.

By-product credit
Revenue from secondary metals that reduces the net cost of copper.
Reserves
Ore that can be economically mined.
Smelter
A facility that converts concentrate into metal.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where does Southern Copper operate?
Peru and Mexico.
Who owns it?
Grupo Mexico is the majority owner.
Does it pay a dividend?
Yes, a large one tied to cash flow.
What is the main risk?
Copper price and Peru political risk.
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Data sources & disclosures: Financial data and metrics cited in this article are sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations materials. Market prices and fundamental data are provided by financial market data providers. Market size estimates and industry projections are sourced from industry research and analyst reports. Figures reflect information available at the time of writing and may have changed. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please read our full Disclaimer and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.