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NIKE Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis

Consumer DiscretionaryAthletic Footwear & Apparel
$43.19as of 2026-06-22

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
28
Weak
Price CAGR
-0.8%
1Y Return
-24.4%
Analyst Upside
+31.8%
Rev Growth
0.1%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$42.60-1.4% potential
Bear Case
$27.71
Bull Case
$69.35
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

About NIKE Inc.

Nike is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel brand, generating $50B+ in annual revenue across 190+ countries. The company designs, develops, and sells athletic shoes (Air Max, Air Jordan, Dunk), apparel, equipment, and accessories under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands. Nike is undergoing a significant turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill after a period of strategic missteps including over-rotation to direct-to-consumer sales, innovation stagnation, and loss of key wholesale partnerships.

How NIKE Makes Money

Nike earns from Nike Direct (~44% — Nike.com, Nike app, Nike-owned stores), wholesale (~55% — Foot Locker, Dick's, JD Sports, and global retailers), and Converse (~5%). Revenue is split across footwear (~66%), apparel (~28%), and equipment (~6%). The Jordan Brand alone generates $7B+ annually. Nike's competitive moat is its athlete endorsement ecosystem (LeBron, Kylian Mbappé, etc.) and innovation in performance footwear technology.

NIKE Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how NIKE's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$46.52B
Cost of Revenue
-$27.49B
Gross Profit
$19.04B40.9% margin
Operating Expenses
-$15.81B
Operating Income
$3.23B6.9% margin
Tax & Other
-$979.8M
Net Income
$2.25B4.8% margin
Gross Margin
40.9%
Operating Margin
6.9%
Net Margin
4.8%
EBITDA Margin
12.1%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$66.94B
Enterprise Value
$94.21B
P/E (Trailing)
29.74
P/E (Forward)
24.89
EV / EBITDA
16.29
Price / Sales
1.94
Price / Book
6.62
Revenue
$46.52B
Revenue Growth
0.1%
Earnings Growth
-34.8%
EBITDA
$5.78B
Gross Margin
40.9%
Operating Margin
6.9%
Net Margin
4.8%
Return on Equity
16.0%
Return on Assets
5.2%
Free Cash Flow
$1.31B
Total Cash
$10.39B
Total Debt
$11.91B
Debt / Equity
79.33
Current Ratio
2.14
Quick Ratio
1.24
Beta
1.12
Dividend Yield
3.6%
Payout Ratio
106.6%
Book Value / Share
$9.52

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingHold(36 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$40.00-7.4%
Mean Target$59.58+38.0% upside
High Target$120.00+177.8%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for NKE

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$23.42
-45.8% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$23.42 – $23.42
Average Estimate
$23.42
Potential Downside
-45.8%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

NKE Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • New CEO Elliott Hill (Nike veteran) is resetting the strategy — restoring wholesale partnerships, re-investing in innovation, and reducing promotional activity.
  • Jordan Brand is a cultural phenomenon generating $7B+ annually — it transcends sport and has pricing power across sneaker culture.
  • International markets (China, EMEA, Asia Pacific) represent 60%+ of revenue and have strong growth potential as middle classes expand.
  • Valuation has compressed to 25-28x forward P/E from 35x+ — the reset creates a more attractive entry point for a world-class brand.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Innovation has stagnated — competitors (On Running, Hoka, New Balance, Adidas) have gained significant market share with fresher product designs.
  • DTC over-rotation damaged wholesale relationships — restoring partnerships with Foot Locker and others will take time and may require margin concessions.
  • China recovery is slower than expected — Chinese consumer spending on premium athletic wear has been weak amid the economic slowdown.
  • Brand heat has cooled — Nike Dunks and Air Force 1s are losing cultural relevance as consumers seek newer, less ubiquitous brands.

What to Watch: NKE Key Metrics

Revenue growth by region
Wholesale revenue recovery
Gross margin improvement
Innovation pipeline (new silhouettes)
Inventory levels and promotional activity

NKE Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

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