Cliff, staged and earnings-linked lock-ups, where the share count comes from, and the one calculation that tells you whether an unlock is absorbable — shares released divided by average daily volume.
Almost nothing about a newly public company is predictable. The lock-up expiry is the exception: it is written into a public document on pricing night, months before it happens, and it marks the day a large block of shares becomes legally sellable.
The current radar reads that clause out of the prospectus rather than assuming a date — 107 prospectuses so far, producing 81 covered listings, of which 47 have terms clean enough to publish and 183 are withheld.
Note the ratio of withheld to publishable. Roughly a third of prospectuses state the terms in a way we will not reduce to a date and a share count without guessing, so those are held back with the reason. The alternative — publishing the guess — is what makes most lock-up calendars unreliable.
| Structure | Count | What it means for the date |
|---|---|---|
| cliff | 72 | Cliff — one date, everything at once |
| unknown | 5 | Stated but not machine-readable — withheld rather than guessed |
| earlier-of | 3 | Earlier-of — a date, or an earnings release, whichever comes first |
| staged | 1 | Staged — releases in tranches on separate dates |
The cliff majority is why "180 days" usually works. The minority is why it is not good enough: an earlier-of clause can release shares months ahead of the assumed date when an earnings release triggers it, and a staged release spreads supply across several dates that a single-date calendar never shows.
Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) releases in tranches. The radar reports 400,220,690 shares unlocking at the first date — derived from the filing's share counts — leaving a residual 53.2% still restricted afterwards. A calendar that printed one date and one total for this listing would be wrong twice.
Underwriters can also release a lock-up early at their discretion, and sometimes do. No reading of the clause protects you from that. What the clause gives you is the latest plausible date and the size of the block — which is far more than a guess.
The supply question has a one-line answer. Take the shares becoming sellable and divide by how many shares trade on an average day:
That number is how many full sessions of the stock's entire normal volume it would take to absorb the block, if all of it came to market. It will not. But the ratio separates listings where the unlock is a rounding error from ones where it dwarfs the float.
| Listing | Expiry | Shares unlocking | Avg daily vol | Absorb days | Residual locked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPTX Seaport Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-10-28 | 38,867,817 | 264,070 | 147.2 | 100.0% |
ALMR Alamar Biosciences, Inc. | 2026-10-14 | 55,271,425 | 429,930 | 128.6 | 100.0% |
AVLN Avalyn Pharma Inc. | 2026-10-27 | 25,145,380 | 254,160 | 98.9 | 100.0% |
XE X-Energy, Inc. | 2026-10-24 | 348,095,209 | 7,430,940 | 46.8 | 100.0% |
CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 400,220,690 | 5,839,440 | 36.5 | 53.2% |
ARXS Arxis, Inc. | 2026-10-13 | 23,153,980 | 864,240 | 26.8 | 100.0% |
FRVO Fervo Energy Co | 2026-11-10 | 205,005,185 | 8,171,955 | 25.1 | 100.0% |
GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 22,106,835 | 1,059,210 | 20.9 | 100.0% |
ELMT Elmet Group Co. | 2026-10-20 | 20,276,221 | 1,271,010 | 16 | 100.0% |
Read the last column alongside the absorb days. A big block with a big residual means more is still coming; a big block with a small residual means this is the whole event.
It is easy to say "watch out for the lock-up" and impossible to be wrong about it. A claim only means something if it commits in advance. The radar's rules, stated before any date arrives:
A large unlock is not a short thesis. Insiders frequently sell nothing, the event is widely known, and prices often move ahead of the date rather than on it. The honest use of this data is as a reason to wait before buying a recent listing, not as a trade.
Open calls, the quoted clause behind each one, and the graded results as dates pass: /lockup-radar.
A stock trades 2,000,000 shares a day. At lock-up expiry, 60,000,000 shares become sellable. What is the absorb-days figure, and what does it mean?
Why does reading the actual prospectus clause beat assuming '180 days from the IPO'?
A call issued 30 days before expiry says 'absorbed'. Two months later the stock is down 20%. Was the call wrong?
Open calls with the prospectus clause quoted, the expiry date, shares unlocking, absorb days, and the graded scoreboard for calls that have already expired.