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The Home Depot Inc. (HD) Stock Analysis 2026

RetailHome Improvement Retail
$348.24as of 2026-08-04

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
50
Neutral
Price CAGR
11.6%
1Y Return
-11.2%
Analyst Upside
+11.6%
Rev Growth
4.8%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$320.85-7.9% potential
Bear Case
$235.31
Bull Case
$475.24
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About The Home Depot Inc.

Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer, operating 2,300+ stores across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) homeowners and professional contractors (Pro customers), selling building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden items, and decor. Pro customers represent roughly 50% of sales and are the primary growth driver. Home Depot's $25B acquisition of SRS Distribution in 2024 significantly expanded its professional supply capabilities.

How The Makes Money

Home Depot earns from product sales across multiple categories: building materials, decor, hardlines (tools, hardware, plumbing), and garden. The Pro segment (contractors, remodelers) generates higher average tickets ($3,000+ vs $90 for DIY) and is growing faster. The SRS Distribution acquisition added specialty trade distribution (roofing, landscaping, pool supplies) that doesn't require Home Depot store visits.

The Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how The's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$166.59B
Cost of Revenue
-$111.41B
Gross Profit
$55.19B33.1% margin
Operating Expenses
-$35.32B
Operating Income
$19.87B11.9% margin
Tax & Other
-$5.86B
Net Income
$14.01B8.4% margin
Gross Margin
33.1%
Operating Margin
11.9%
Net Margin
8.4%
EBITDA Margin
15.6%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$337.89B
Enterprise Value
$426.05B
P/E (Trailing)
23.58
P/E (Forward)
20.63
EV / EBITDA
16.71
Price / Sales
2.24
Price / Book
45.94
Revenue
$166.59B
Revenue Growth
4.8%
Earnings Growth
-4.3%
EBITDA
$25.50B
Gross Margin
33.1%
Operating Margin
11.9%
Net Margin
8.4%
Return on Equity
128.4%
Return on Assets
12.5%
Free Cash Flow
$10.13B
Total Cash
$1.37B
Total Debt
$61.95B
Debt / Equity
459.36
Current Ratio
1.04
Quick Ratio
0.23
Beta
0.95
Dividend Yield
2.8%
Payout Ratio
65.6%
Book Value / Share
$13.92

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingBuy(36 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$308.00-11.6%
Mean Target$370.34+6.3% upside
High Target$484.00+39.0%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for HD

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$213.78
-38.6% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$213.78 – $213.78
Average Estimate
$213.78
Potential Downside
-38.6%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

HD Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Pro customer business is growing faster than DIY — higher tickets, more frequent purchases, and the SRS Distribution acquisition create a comprehensive pro ecosystem.
  • Housing turnover drives a renovation cycle — the US has under-invested in housing maintenance, creating pent-up demand estimated at $400B+ in deferred projects.
  • E-commerce and interconnected retail (buy online, pick up in store) drive 15%+ of sales and improve customer satisfaction and conversion.
  • Market-leading position with 2x the revenue of Lowe's — scale advantages in purchasing, logistics, and brand recognition are durable.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Housing market sensitivity — high mortgage rates reduce home sales, which reduces renovation activity and big-ticket discretionary projects.
  • SRS Distribution acquisition ($25B) adds integration risk and debt — the acquisition must deliver synergies to justify the price.
  • DIY segment is pressured by aging homeowner demographics and competition from contractors who prefer Pro-focused channels.
  • Valuation at 22-25x forward P/E assumes housing recovery that may take years if rates stay elevated.

What to Watch: HD Key Metrics

Same-store sales growth
Pro customer sales growth
SRS Distribution integration progress
Average ticket growth vs transactions
Housing turnover trends

HD Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

Compare HD with Peers

HD vs LOWHome Depot vs Lowe's — Which Home Improvement Stock Win
LOW vs WMTLowe's vs Walmart — Home Improvement vs Supercenter Ret

HD — Related Investment Themes

Top Retail Stocks10 stocks in theme

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