Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis 2026
BriMind AI Score
ProprietaryScore based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.
AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →
About Burlington Stores Inc.
Burlington Stores is the third-largest off-price retailer in the United States behind TJX Companies (T.J. Maxx, Marshalls) and Ross Stores. Burlington sells branded apparel, footwear, accessories, home décor, and coats at 20-60% below department store prices by buying closeout and excess inventory from brands and manufacturers. The company operates 1,000+ stores across the US and is expanding its store count by 100+ per year, with a particular focus on smaller-format stores that perform well in suburban locations.
How Burlington Stores Makes Money
Burlington earns from merchandise sold at a markup over its low-cost inventory purchases. Off-price retailers buy excess inventory (brand overproduction, returns, end-of-season goods) at steep discounts from brands and retailers, then sell to consumers at prices below regular retail but above their cost. Gross margins of 42-44% reflect the sourcing advantage. Expanding store count and improving comparable store sales drive revenue growth.
Burlington Stores Revenue & Profitability Breakdown
This chart shows how Burlington Stores's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.
Key Financial Metrics
Burlington Stores Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 23.41x, generates $107.4M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 294.97, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 41.4% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.
Wall Street Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts covering Burlington Stores Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $364.75 (+50.5% vs the current price). Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.
Intrinsic Value Estimates for BURL
We use 3 valuation models to estimate BURL's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.
Technical Price Signals
BURL is currently in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 50-day average of $336.33 and below its 200-day average of $312.60. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.
BURL Investment Case: Bull vs Bear
BURL's investment case breaks down into 4 bull points and 4 bear points below. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.
Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)
- Off-price retail is structurally growing — consumers are increasingly value-conscious and willing to 'treasure hunt' for brand-name goods at discounted prices.
- Burlington has significant comp store sales improvement opportunity — its comp sales have lagged TJX and Ross, and management has been implementing operational improvements (better treasure hunt assortment, smaller stores, fresher inventory turns).
- Real estate opportunity is exceptional — vacated department stores and retail space create lower-cost leasing opportunities for Burlington's aggressive store expansion.
- Inflationary environment benefits off-price — consumers trade down from full-price retail when price sensitivity increases, expanding off-price market share.
Bear Case (Key Risks)
- Burlington's comps consistently trail TJX and Ross, raising questions about whether it can close the execution gap against better-positioned competitors.
- Off-price sourcing requires strong vendor relationships and buying discipline — if brand excess inventory dries up (brands getting better at inventory management), merchandise availability suffers.
- Consumer spending slowdown disproportionately affects apparel and home goods — Burlington's merchandise mix is concentrated in these categories.
- Store expansion at 100+ units/year creates integration risk and capital requirements that could dilute returns if new stores underperform.
What to Watch: BURL Key Metrics
BURL Stock — Frequently Asked Questions
Compare BURL with Peers
Further Reading
Research and guides that put BURL’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.
More Consumer Defensive Stock Analysis
In-depth reports on companies operating alongside BURL — business models, bull and bear cases, and the metrics that matter.
Unlock the Full BURL Analysis
Interactive price charts, real-time AI signals, advanced DCF models, portfolio tracking, earnings analysis, and side-by-side peer comparisons. Start your 14-day free trial — no credit card required.