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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis 2026

RestaurantsQuick Service Restaurants
$268.34as of 2026-08-04

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
49
Neutral
Price CAGR
11.0%
1Y Return
-10.6%
Analyst Upside
+19.6%
Rev Growth
9.4%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$254.07-5.3% potential
Bear Case
$183.81
Bull Case
$387.45
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue, operating and franchising approximately 40,000 restaurants across 100+ countries. The company serves 69 million customers daily. McDonald's has evolved from a company-operated restaurant model to a predominantly franchise model (95% of restaurants are franchised), making it essentially a real estate and brand licensing company that collects rent and royalties from franchisees.

How McDonald's Makes Money

McDonald's earns from franchise fees and rent (~60% of revenue — franchisees pay ~4% of sales as royalties plus rent on McDonald's-owned properties), company-operated restaurant sales (~40%), and digital/delivery platform fees. The franchise model generates 80%+ operating margins on franchise revenue since McDonald's bears minimal food and labor costs. The company owns the real estate underneath most franchise locations, creating a dual revenue stream.

McDonald's Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how McDonald's's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$27.45B
Cost of Revenue
-$11.71B
Gross Profit
$15.74B57.3% margin
Operating Expenses
-$3.59B
Operating Income
$12.15B44.3% margin
Tax & Other
-$3.47B
Net Income
$8.68B31.6% margin
Gross Margin
57.3%
Operating Margin
44.3%
Net Margin
31.6%
EBITDA Margin
54.1%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$190.21B
Enterprise Value
$271.33B
P/E (Trailing)
22.33
P/E (Forward)
19.17
EV / EBITDA
19.53
Price / Sales
8.55
Revenue
$27.45B
Revenue Growth
9.4%
Earnings Growth
6.9%
EBITDA
$13.90B
Gross Margin
57.3%
Operating Margin
44.3%
Net Margin
31.6%
Return on Assets
13.6%
Free Cash Flow
$5.95B
Total Cash
$1.24B
Total Debt
$52.79B
Current Ratio
1.14
Quick Ratio
0.87
Beta
0.42
Dividend Yield
2.8%
Payout Ratio
59.9%
Book Value / Share
$-1.81

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingBuy(28 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$300.0011.8%
Mean Target$323.58+20.6% upside
High Target$364.00+35.6%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for MCD

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$174.81
-34.9% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$174.81 – $174.81
Average Estimate
$174.81
Potential Downside
-34.9%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

MCD Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Franchise model generates 80%+ margins on franchise revenue with minimal capital requirements — McDonald's is a real estate and brand business disguised as a restaurant.
  • Digital and delivery sales (30%+ of systemwide sales) drive higher check sizes and frequency — the MyMcDonald's app has 150M+ active users globally.
  • Unmatched global scale and brand recognition — McDonald's is the most visited restaurant in the world with pricing power across all economic environments.
  • 48 consecutive years of dividend increases with a 2.5%+ yield — one of the most reliable dividend growth stocks in consumer discretionary.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Value perception has eroded as menu prices have risen 40%+ since 2020 — consumers are pushing back with reduced visit frequency.
  • Labor cost inflation (minimum wage increases) pressures franchisee profitability, which indirectly limits McDonald's pricing power.
  • International operations (~60% of revenue) face currency headwinds and geopolitical risks (Middle East boycotts impacted traffic).
  • Competition from Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and other fast-casual chains is eroding McDonald's market share among younger demographics.

What to Watch: MCD Key Metrics

Global comparable sales growth
Digital sales as % of total
Franchise margin
New restaurant openings
Average check growth vs traffic

MCD Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

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MCD — Related Investment Themes

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