L3Harris Technologies (LHX) In-Depth Stock Report
A full valuation and forecasting workup on L3Harris Technologies, the diversified defense-electronics prime formed from the 2019 Harris-L3 Technologies merger and reshaped further by its 2023 acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, spanning space and missile-defense sensors, tactical communications, electronic warfare, and missile propulsion and solid rocket motors — a business now navigating a record order backlog, a major 2026 segment reorganization, a partial divestiture of its space-propulsion unit, and an abrupt August 2026 CEO change, all layered on top of the broader U.S. and allied defense-spending buildout. Every number below is computed live from BriMindInvest's own data pipeline, not copied from a template.
Investment Summary
Every headline number this report produces, collected in one place before the analysis that derives them. All figures are computed live at page load, so this block reflects the market as of the moment you opened the page.
- Seven independent intrinsic-value methods run live against current financials, with an implied upside/downside versus the current price.
- A proprietary six-factor AI Score (value, growth, profitability, health, momentum, risk) percentile-ranked against our full coverage universe.
- A blended 1-year price target combining our internal model with live Wall Street analyst consensus.
- A 5-year Monte Carlo simulation built from 2,000 bootstrap paths over L3Harris's own historical monthly returns — a probability band, not a single guess.
- A structured bull case, bear case, catalyst list, and risk register written specifically for this report.
- A breakdown of L3Harris's Space & Mission Systems, Missile Solutions (including Aerojet Rocketdyne), and Communications & Spectrum Dominance segments, following the company's 2026 segment reorganization.
- Live analyst rating distribution, institutional ownership breakdown, quarterly EPS beat/miss history, and multi-year revenue and net income — pulled directly from aggregated sell-side and financial-statement data.
Executive Summary
L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX) is a diversified U.S. defense-electronics and aerospace prime formed by the 2019 merger of Harris Corporation and L3 Technologies, and reshaped further by its roughly $4.7 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, completed in 2023, which added solid rocket motors, missile propulsion, and space-propulsion capability to a portfolio that already spanned tactical radios, space and airborne sensors, electronic warfare, and intelligence-surveillance-and-reconnaissance (ISR) systems.
The company reported roughly $5.9 billion in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up about 8% year over year, with diluted EPS of roughly $3.13 (up about 28%), orders of roughly $7.3 billion producing a book-to-bill ratio of about 1.2x, and a record backlog of roughly $42 billion — results strong enough that management raised full-year 2026 guidance to consolidated revenue of $23.2 billion to $23.7 billion and diluted EPS of $11.80 to $12.00, alongside free cash flow guidance of roughly $3 billion.
Early in 2026, L3Harris reorganized from its historical four-segment structure (Space & Airborne Systems, Integrated Mission Systems, Communication Systems, and Aerojet Rocketdyne) into three segments: Space & Mission Systems (combining space and ISR/airborne-mission work), Missile Solutions (combining Aerojet's missile propulsion and solid rocket motors with other missile-systems and hypersonics work), and Communications & Spectrum Dominance (tactical communications, the WESCAM sensor business, and electronic warfare). In parallel, the company agreed to sell a majority stake in its commercial space-propulsion and power business to AE Industrial Partners for roughly $845 million (a transaction that closed in August 2026 and excludes the RS-25 rocket-engine program), while retaining the missile propulsion, solid rocket motor, and hypersonics work that came with the original Aerojet Rocketdyne deal inside the new Missile Solutions segment.
On August 17, 2026, L3Harris announced that Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik had stepped down effective immediately following an internal investigation into conduct the board found inconsistent with company values, with the board naming Sam Mehta — previously the executive leading the company's space sector — as the new President and CEO. This is a material, very recent governance event that readers should weigh directly alongside the operating results.
L3Harris sits squarely inside the broader record U.S. and allied defense-spending buildout, with direct exposure to some of its highest-profile current programs, including an up-to-$955 million Space Development Agency award (announced July 2026) for 18 missile-tracking satellites supporting the "Golden Dome for America" missile-defense architecture, alongside long-running tactical-radio, electronic-warfare, and missile-propulsion franchises.
This report walks through L3Harris's live valuation across seven independent methods, its proprietary AI Score, a blended analyst price target, and a 5-year Monte Carlo simulation — then lays out the bull case, bear case, and the specific catalysts and risks most likely to move the stock, with particular attention to the segment reorganization, the space-propulsion divestiture, and the unresolved leadership transition.
Industry & Market Backdrop
The broader competitive and macro environment LHX operates in — context a pure valuation table can't convey on its own.
Global defense budgets have grown substantially in recent years, with the United States, NATO members, and other allied nations increasing defense spending amid heightened geopolitical tensions, a trend that has directly supported record order backlogs across large defense-electronics primes including L3Harris.
Space-based missile warning and missile defense has become one of the fastest-growing areas of U.S. defense investment, exemplified by the "Golden Dome for America" initiative and the Space Development Agency's proliferated, resilient satellite-constellation architecture, both of which depend heavily on the kind of space-sensor and fire-control-quality tracking payloads L3Harris builds.
Hypersonic weapons and hypersonic-defense programs represent an intensifying area of great-power competition, with the U.S. and allied governments funding both offensive hypersonic-strike capability (where Aerojet Rocketdyne-derived propulsion and L3Harris's Missile Solutions segment play a direct role) and the sensor and tracking systems needed to detect and intercept hypersonic threats.
Consolidation and portfolio-reshaping activity has been a recurring theme across the defense-industrial base, as primes acquire capability adjacent to fast-growing mission areas (as L3Harris did with Aerojet Rocketdyne in 2023) while periodically divesting non-core or commercially oriented pieces (as L3Harris did with its majority stake in commercial space propulsion in 2026), reflecting an industry-wide effort to concentrate capital and management attention on the highest-priority, government-funded mission areas.
Live Key Statistics
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Business Overview
L3Harris designs and manufactures defense electronics, sensors, and communications equipment across space, air, land, sea, and cyber domains, with a customer base concentrated among the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligence community, and allied foreign militaries.
Following its 2023 acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, L3Harris added solid rocket motors, missile propulsion, and space-propulsion manufacturing to a portfolio that already included tactical radios, space and airborne mission sensors, and electronic-warfare systems — though the company subsequently sold a majority stake in the commercial space-propulsion and power piece of that business to AE Industrial Partners in 2026 while retaining missile propulsion and solid rocket motors.
Early in 2026, L3Harris consolidated its historical four-segment structure into three segments — Space & Mission Systems, Missile Solutions, and Communications & Spectrum Dominance — a reorganization management has said better aligns the company's reporting with how its largest, fastest-growing mission areas (space-based missile tracking, missile and hypersonics, and resilient tactical communications and electronic warfare) are actually managed and sold to customers.
The company's record roughly $42 billion backlog as of the second quarter of 2026, combined with an order book-to-bill ratio above 1.0x, reflects multi-year visibility into government-funded programs, though (as with any defense prime) that revenue remains subject to the U.S. appropriations process, program-specific cost and schedule execution, and export-control considerations for its growing international business.
Segment Deep Dive
A closer look at each reporting segment individually, rather than treating the business as a single undifferentiated revenue line.
Formed in the 2026 reorganization by combining the former Space & Airborne Systems segment with Integrated Mission Systems' space- and ISR-relevant work, this segment covers space-based sensors, missile-warning and missile-tracking satellites, and airborne ISR missionization. It is expected to generate roughly $11.5 billion in 2026 revenue and includes L3Harris's up-to-$955 million Space Development Agency award (announced July 2026) to build 18 Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3 satellites supporting the "Golden Dome for America" missile-defense architecture, with production based at expanded facilities in Indiana and a new satellite-integration facility in Florida.
Combines the missile propulsion, solid rocket motor, and hypersonics capability acquired with Aerojet Rocketdyne in 2023 with other L3Harris missile systems, air-launched effects, and seeker technologies. Segment revenue grew roughly 14% in the second quarter of 2026, the fastest of the three segments, reflecting strong demand for missile propulsion and munitions amid the broader global rearmament cycle; this segment retains Aerojet's missile propulsion and solid rocket motor business even after L3Harris sold a majority stake in the separate commercial space-propulsion and power business to AE Industrial Partners in 2026.
Built around the former Communication Systems segment's tactical radio franchise, this segment now also includes the WESCAM electro-optical/infrared sensor business and other electronic-warfare programs, with roughly $8 billion of 2026 revenue guidance. Segment revenue grew roughly 4% in the second quarter of 2026; capabilities include resilient tactical communications designed to connect through commercial low-earth-orbit constellation terminals, and electromagnetic-spectrum-operations technology aimed at contested, high-tempo electronic-warfare environments.
In January 2026, L3Harris announced the sale of a roughly 60% majority stake in its commercial space-propulsion and power-systems business (valued at roughly $1.4 billion, and set to re-adopt the Rocketdyne name under its new majority owner) to AE Industrial Partners for approximately $845 million; the deal closed in August 2026 and explicitly excludes the RS-25 rocket-engine program. L3Harris retains a roughly 40% minority stake and, more importantly for the ongoing business, kept all missile propulsion, solid rocket motor, and hypersonics work inside the new Missile Solutions segment — meaning the divestiture narrows L3Harris's exposure to the commercial space-launch propulsion market specifically, not to missile propulsion broadly.
Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Philosophy
How management has historically chosen to deploy cash — buybacks, dividends, R&D, and acquisitions — and what that reveals about capital discipline.
L3Harris raised its quarterly dividend from $1.20 to $1.25 per share (an annualized rate of $5.00) effective with the first-quarter 2026 payment, marking the company's 24th consecutive year of dividend increases — a long streak that reflects a historically consistent capital-return posture even as the company has simultaneously worked through post-Aerojet-Rocketdyne deleveraging.
Management has described its capital-allocation priorities, in order, as investing in the business, disciplined acquisitions, debt paydown, share repurchases, and dividend growth; as of early January 2026, L3Harris carried roughly $10.4 billion of long-term debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 0.67 and debt-to-assets of roughly 30.9%, and management has characterized overall leverage as being in reasonably good shape following the 2023 Aerojet Rocketdyne deal.
The completed sale of a majority stake in the commercial space-propulsion business to AE Industrial Partners is expected to leave L3Harris with roughly $4 billion of cash on hand before any additional debt paydown or share repurchases, giving the company meaningfully more near-term flexibility to continue deleveraging, return additional capital to shareholders, or both; prospective investors should watch upcoming quarterly filings for how that flexibility is actually deployed, particularly given the unresolved leadership transition discussed below.
Management & Governance
Leadership, incentive alignment, and governance structure — factors that shape execution risk independent of the underlying business model.
On August 17, 2026, L3Harris announced that Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik had stepped down effective immediately after an internal investigation concluded he had engaged in conduct inconsistent with the company's values; the specific nature of that conduct has not been fully detailed in public disclosures. The board named Sam Mehta, previously the L3Harris executive who led the company's space sector, as the new President and CEO. This is a very recent, still-unfolding governance event, and readers should look for L3Harris's next several quarterly filings and earnings calls for further disclosure and for Mehta's own articulation of strategic priorities.
Beyond the leadership change, L3Harris's board and management team oversee execution across a large, government-concentrated customer base, where program-level cost and schedule performance, government-relationship management, and compliance with export-control and security regulations are central governance considerations; prospective investors should review the company's most recent proxy statement and 10-K for board composition, executive compensation structure, and insider ownership details, since these evolve over time and are disclosed directly by the company rather than estimated by third parties.
See exactly how we get LHX's fair-value range
Forecast Revenue and Free Cash Flow
5-Year Monte Carlo Simulation
Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this L3Harris Technologies report:
- Fair value from 7 methods, weighted by relevance to this business
- 5-year financial forecast and DCF/earnings sensitivity grids
- Decomposed AI Score, Monte Carlo simulation, and institutional/analyst data
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Bull Case vs. Bear Case
- A record roughly $42 billion backlog and a second-quarter 2026 book-to-bill ratio of roughly 1.2x provide multi-year revenue visibility, reinforced by management's decision to raise full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.
- Direct exposure to some of the highest-priority, best-funded areas of the current U.S. defense buildout, including an up-to-$955 million Space Development Agency award for Golden Dome-related missile-tracking satellites and a fast-growing Missile Solutions segment (up roughly 14% year over year in the second quarter of 2026).
- A 24-consecutive-year dividend-increase streak and a capital-allocation framework prioritizing debt paydown and shareholder returns, further supported by roughly $4 billion of expected cash on hand following the completed space-propulsion divestiture.
- Retained ownership of the core, higher-priority missile propulsion and solid rocket motor business from the 2023 Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition, even after divesting the more commercially exposed space-propulsion piece to AE Industrial Partners.
- A defensible, long-established position in tactical radios and electronic warfare through the Communications & Spectrum Dominance segment, complemented by the differentiated, higher-margin WESCAM sensor product line.
- Broad international demand tailwinds from NATO and allied rearmament, supporting a rising mix of international revenue alongside core U.S. government demand.
- The abrupt, conduct-related departure of Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik in August 2026, and the promotion of a new, first-time public-company CEO in Sam Mehta, introduces near-term leadership and strategic-continuity uncertainty that has not yet been tested through a full quarterly cycle.
- The 2026 segment reorganization (from four segments into three) complicates historical financial comparisons and makes it harder to cleanly evaluate long-run segment-level trends until a longer run of comparable data accumulates under the new structure.
- As with all major defense contractors, L3Harris's revenue depends heavily on U.S. government appropriations and program funding, which remain subject to continuing-resolution risk, budget-process delays, and shifting defense priorities across administrations and Congresses.
- The company's Missile Solutions segment, including solid rocket motors and missile propulsion, operates in a highly specialized, capital-intensive manufacturing environment where program-specific cost overruns or production-quality issues could weigh on segment margins.
- Divesting a majority stake in the commercial space-propulsion business reduces L3Harris's exposure to a segment of the growing commercial space-launch market, a strategic trade-off that could look less favorable if that market grows faster than currently expected.
- Rising international revenue exposure increases sensitivity to export-control rules, allied-government budget cycles, and geopolitical relationships that can shift with little notice.
Related Reports
In-depth reports for other names in L3Harris Technologies's comparable set.
7 catalysts and 7 risks we're tracking for LHX
| Catalyst | Expected Impact | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
Included with a subscription or a one-time purchase of this L3Harris Technologies report:
- Catalyst list, each tagged with expected impact and timing
- Risk register scored by probability and severity
- 5 key metrics to watch before the next earnings report
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What Would Change Our Mind?
Specific, falsifiable triggers — not vague sentiment — that would move us toward or away from the bull case above.
- New CEO Sam Mehta articulating a clear, credible strategic plan that reaffirms or strengthens prior financial targets in his first full quarterly cycle.
- Continued backlog growth and a book-to-bill ratio holding comfortably above 1.0x across all three reorganized segments.
- Free cash flow tracking at or above the roughly $3 billion full-year 2026 guidance, with clear progress on debt paydown or additional shareholder returns.
- Additional major program wins, such as further Golden Dome-related or other space-based missile-tracking awards.
- Further negative disclosures related to the circumstances behind Kubasik's departure, or additional governance turmoil under the new CEO.
- Guidance cuts or segment-level margin compression emerging under the new three-segment reporting structure.
- U.S. defense appropriations delays or continuing-resolution gridlock materially affecting program funding.
- Execution setbacks or cost overruns on major missile-propulsion or space-sensor programs.
Competitive Positioning
L3Harris competes with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman most directly in space-based sensors and missile-warning/missile-tracking satellites, an area where all three companies (along with others) have won portions of the Space Development Agency's proliferated constellation and Golden Dome-related awards, making relative execution and cost performance on these newer, faster-cadence satellite programs an important competitive differentiator going forward.
In missile propulsion and solid rocket motors, L3Harris's Missile Solutions segment (built around the retained core of the 2023 Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition) competes with Northrop Grumman's propulsion business, historically one of the few other large-scale U.S. solid-rocket-motor suppliers, a market structure that has drawn periodic scrutiny from the Department of Defense over supplier concentration and pricing.
In tactical communications and electronic warfare, L3Harris's Communications & Spectrum Dominance segment holds a long-established, defensible position in software-defined tactical radios for U.S. and allied militaries, competing with segments of General Dynamics and other defense-electronics suppliers, with the WESCAM sensor line adding a further differentiated, high-margin product line.
Relative to RTX's Raytheon segment, which competes in missiles and air-and-missile defense with systems like Patriot, L3Harris's Missile Solutions segment is more concentrated in propulsion and munitions components than in complete, exportable air-defense systems, a somewhat different position within the same broader missile and air-defense value chain.
L3Harris's recent segment reorganization and partial space-propulsion divestiture can be read as an attempt to sharpen its competitive focus on the fastest-growing, most clearly funded mission areas (space-based missile tracking and missile solutions) while reducing exposure to the more commercially exposed, lower-margin propulsion-manufacturing business — a strategic bet that should become easier to evaluate as the new segment structure produces a longer run of comparable quarterly results.
Investor Decision Framework
A process for using this report, not a recommendation — how to weigh valuation, scenario spread, and your own risk tolerance.
- This section is educational, not a personalized recommendation — it is a framework for organizing your own analysis, not an instruction to buy or sell LHX.
- A central judgment call for this stock right now is how much weight to place on the very recent, still-unfolding CEO transition versus the company's otherwise strong, backlog-supported operating momentum — these two signals currently point in different directions.
- Because the 2026 segment reorganization limits clean historical comparability, consider weighting backlog, book-to-bill, and guidance trends more heavily than segment-level margin history until several quarters of comparable data accumulate under the new structure.
- Weigh L3Harris's exposure to some of the fastest-growing, highest-priority U.S. defense mission areas (space-based missile tracking, missile solutions) against the ordinary appropriations and program-execution risks common to all defense primes.
- Revisit the thesis with each quarterly earnings release, paying particular attention to new CEO Sam Mehta's own characterization of strategic priorities and to backlog and free-cash-flow trends.
- Cross-check this report's live analyst rating distribution and consensus price target against your own view, keeping in mind how recently the leadership change occurred relative to when any given analyst estimate was last updated.
The BriMindInvest Edge
Why this report is different from asking a general-purpose AI chatbot about the stock.
- Every valuation number on this page is computed live from current market data through our own DCF, scoring, and Monte Carlo engines — not summarized or paraphrased from other analysts' reports the way a general chatbot would.
- The relevance-weighted fair value, reverse-DCF market-implied growth, fundamentals-based Monte Carlo, and scenario tables above are proprietary calculations you cannot get by asking a general-purpose AI for "LHX fair value" — those answers come from web summaries of other people's price targets, not a live, disclosed-assumption model.
- Our 1-year price-target model has a real, published backtest (see Model Track Record above where covered) — we show our work and our error rate rather than asserting accuracy.
- Numbers here are refreshed every time you load the page, not cached from a training cutoff months or years in the past.
Data Sources & Methodology
Valuation, price, and financial-statistics data in this report are fetched live from our production market-data pipeline (Yahoo Finance and Finnhub) at the time you loaded this page. The AI Score is a percentile ranking against our full covered stock universe, recomputed nightly. The fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios randomize growth rate, discount rate, and terminal growth around the same disclosed DCF assumptions used in the valuation table — they are not derived from resampled historical stock returns. The secondary historical-volatility simulation (2,000 bootstrap paths, seeded for reproducibility) uses the stock's own historical monthly returns and is shown separately because it measures a different thing (volatility) than the fundamentals-based model (intrinsic value).
This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All valuation models, price targets, and simulations are estimates based on historical and current data; actual results will differ, potentially substantially. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. See our full Methodology and Disclaimer.
Free vs. Premium: What You're Getting
- Narrative overview and general bull/bear framing
- Headline price and basic company facts
- No live valuation model, AI Score, or forecast table
- Relevance-weighted fair value range and reverse-DCF market-implied growth
- 5-year financial forecast, DCF sensitivity grid, and Bull/Base/Bear scenario table
- Fundamentals-based Monte Carlo and decomposed AI Score with sub-factor components
- Real, published backtested accuracy where LHX is in our coverage set
Glossary of Key Terms
Plain-English definitions for the terms used throughout this report, for readers newer to equity valuation.
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