Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Stock Analysis 2026

Consumer CyclicalAuto Parts

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
25
Weak
Price CAGR
-11.9%
1Y Return
-16.5%
Analyst Upside
+20.9%
Rev Growth
-0.5%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

AAP Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how AAP's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$8.62B
Cost of Revenue
-$4.73B
Gross Profit
$3.89B45.1% margin
Operating Expenses
-$3.41B
Operating Income
$478.5M5.5% margin
Tax & Other
-$393.5M
Net Income
$85.0M1.0% margin
Gross Margin
45.1%
Operating Margin
5.5%
Net Margin
1.0%

Key Financial Metrics

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 24.96x, generates $-54.6M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 249.36, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 4.9% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.

Market Cap
$2.70B
P/E (Trailing)
24.96
P/E (Forward)
11.48
PEG Ratio
0.84
Price / Book
1.19
Revenue
$8.62B
Revenue Growth
-0.5%
Earnings Growth
260.0%
EPS (Trailing)
$1.79
EPS (Forward)
$3.89
Gross Margin
45.1%
Operating Margin
5.5%
Net Margin
1.0%
Return on Equity
4.9%
Return on Assets
2.1%
Free Cash Flow
$-54.6M
Debt / Equity
249.36
Current Ratio
1.75
Quick Ratio
0.82
Beta
1.03
Dividend Yield
2.3%
Payout Ratio
55.9%
Insider Ownership
0.7%
Inst. Ownership
127.1%
Short % Float
26.4%
Book Value / Share
$37.62

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Wall Street analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $50.21. Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.

Mean Target$50.21

Intrinsic Value Estimates for AAP

We use 3 valuation models to estimate AAP's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.

Graham Number
$38.92
Benjamin Graham's formula: √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). A conservative floor value for stable, profitable companies. Works best for value-oriented businesses.
P/E Based (15× trailing)
$26.85
Multiplies trailing 12-month earnings per share by 15× — a historically average P/E for the stock market. Simple but ignores future growth.
P/E Based (15× forward)
$58.39
Multiplies next year's estimated earnings per share by 15×. More forward-looking; useful for high-growth companies where current earnings understate potential.
Fair Value Range
$26.85 – $58.39
Average Estimate
$41.39

Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

Technical Price Signals

AAP is currently in a mixed technical position. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.

50-Day MA
$51.94
200-Day MA
$52.18

More Consumer Cyclical Stock Analysis

In-depth reports on companies operating alongside AAP — business models, bull and bear cases, and the metrics that matter.

AZOAutoZone, Inc.Auto PartsAURAurora Innovation, Inc.Auto PartsMODModine Manufacturing CompanyAuto PartsBWABorgWarner Inc.Auto PartsLKQLKQ CorporationAuto PartsTSCOTractor Supply CompanySpecialty RetailDASHDoorDash, Inc.Internet RetailGMEGameStop Corp.Specialty Retail

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Data sources: Financial metrics and market data sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations disclosures. Price data, analyst consensus targets, and fundamental financials provided by financial market data providers. ETF data sourced from official fund prospectuses and index provider publications. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology and Disclaimer for details.
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