CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) Stock Analysis 2026
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ProprietaryScore based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.
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About CVR Energy, Inc.
CVR Energy operates petroleum refineries in the United States Mid-Continent and holds a controlling interest in a nitrogen fertilizer partnership that converts petroleum coke and natural gas into ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate. The combination is unusual: refining margins and fertilizer prices are driven by largely unrelated factors, giving the company two distinct earnings cycles.
How CVR Energy Makes Money
Refining generates the majority of revenue, earning the crack spread on crude processed at inland refineries. The nitrogen fertilizer segment sells ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate to agricultural customers, with margins driven by crop economics and natural gas or petroleum coke input costs. CVR has historically paid substantial dividends when cash flow permits, and the company is majority-controlled by a single large shareholder.
CVR Energy Revenue & Profitability Breakdown
This chart shows how CVR Energy's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.
Key Financial Metrics
CVR Energy, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 62.75x, generates $214.5M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 241.80, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 24.3% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.
Wall Street Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts covering CVR Energy, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $31.40. Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.
Intrinsic Value Estimates for CVI
We use 3 valuation models to estimate CVI's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.
Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.
Technical Price Signals
CVI is currently in a mixed technical position. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.
CVI Investment Case: Bull vs Bear
CVI's investment case breaks down into 4 bull points and 4 bear points below. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.
Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)
- Two largely uncorrelated earnings streams — refining and nitrogen fertilizer — smooth results relative to a pure refiner.
- Inland refinery positioning can capture advantaged crude pricing when takeaway capacity from producing basins is constrained.
- Petroleum coke-based fertilizer production can be cost-advantaged versus natural gas-based producers when gas prices are high.
- Management has historically returned substantial cash through dividends in strong years.
Bear Case (Key Risks)
- Concentrated majority ownership means minority shareholders have limited influence over capital allocation.
- Refining remains the dominant earnings driver, so crack spread volatility still dominates results.
- Fertilizer prices are cyclical and tied to crop prices and global nitrogen supply, including low-cost international capacity.
- Renewable fuel compliance obligations have been a material and contested cost for the refining segment.
What to Watch: CVI Key Metrics
CVI Stock — Frequently Asked Questions
Further Reading
Research and guides that put CVI’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.
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