CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) Stock Analysis 2026

EnergyPetroleum Refining & Nitrogen Fertilizer

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
47
Neutral
Price CAGR
14.6%
1Y Return
+46.9%
Analyst Upside
-17.5%
Rev Growth
55.5%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About CVR Energy, Inc.

CVR Energy operates petroleum refineries in the United States Mid-Continent and holds a controlling interest in a nitrogen fertilizer partnership that converts petroleum coke and natural gas into ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate. The combination is unusual: refining margins and fertilizer prices are driven by largely unrelated factors, giving the company two distinct earnings cycles.

How CVR Energy Makes Money

Refining generates the majority of revenue, earning the crack spread on crude processed at inland refineries. The nitrogen fertilizer segment sells ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate to agricultural customers, with margins driven by crop economics and natural gas or petroleum coke input costs. CVR has historically paid substantial dividends when cash flow permits, and the company is majority-controlled by a single large shareholder.

CVR Energy Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how CVR Energy's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$8.47B
Cost of Revenue
-$7.55B
Gross Profit
$924.0M10.9% margin
Operating Expenses
-$682.6M
Operating Income
$241.4M2.8% margin
Tax & Other
-$172.4M
Net Income
$69.0M0.8% margin
Gross Margin
10.9%
Operating Margin
2.8%
Net Margin
0.8%

Key Financial Metrics

CVR Energy, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 62.75x, generates $214.5M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 241.80, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 24.3% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.

Market Cap
$4.35B
P/E (Trailing)
62.75
P/E (Forward)
19.78
PEG Ratio
0.71
Price / Book
8.29
Revenue
$8.47B
Revenue Growth
55.5%
EPS (Trailing)
$0.69
EPS (Forward)
$2.19
Gross Margin
10.9%
Operating Margin
2.8%
Net Margin
0.8%
Return on Equity
24.3%
Return on Assets
5.5%
Free Cash Flow
$214.5M
Debt / Equity
241.80
Current Ratio
1.42
Quick Ratio
0.88
Beta
0.82
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Payout Ratio
14.5%
Insider Ownership
0.0%
Inst. Ownership
104.5%
Short % Float
20.1%
Book Value / Share
$5.22

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Wall Street analysts covering CVR Energy, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $31.40. Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.

Mean Target$31.40

Intrinsic Value Estimates for CVI

We use 3 valuation models to estimate CVI's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.

Graham Number
$9.00
Benjamin Graham's formula: √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). A conservative floor value for stable, profitable companies. Works best for value-oriented businesses.
P/E Based (15× trailing)
$10.35
Multiplies trailing 12-month earnings per share by 15× — a historically average P/E for the stock market. Simple but ignores future growth.
P/E Based (15× forward)
$32.83
Multiplies next year's estimated earnings per share by 15×. More forward-looking; useful for high-growth companies where current earnings understate potential.
Fair Value Range
$9.00 – $32.83
Average Estimate
$17.39

Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

Technical Price Signals

CVI is currently in a mixed technical position. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.

50-Day MA
$33.76
200-Day MA
$30.54

CVI Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

CVI's investment case breaks down into 4 bull points and 4 bear points below. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Two largely uncorrelated earnings streams — refining and nitrogen fertilizer — smooth results relative to a pure refiner.
  • Inland refinery positioning can capture advantaged crude pricing when takeaway capacity from producing basins is constrained.
  • Petroleum coke-based fertilizer production can be cost-advantaged versus natural gas-based producers when gas prices are high.
  • Management has historically returned substantial cash through dividends in strong years.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Concentrated majority ownership means minority shareholders have limited influence over capital allocation.
  • Refining remains the dominant earnings driver, so crack spread volatility still dominates results.
  • Fertilizer prices are cyclical and tied to crop prices and global nitrogen supply, including low-cost international capacity.
  • Renewable fuel compliance obligations have been a material and contested cost for the refining segment.

What to Watch: CVI Key Metrics

Refining margin and throughput
Nitrogen fertilizer segment EBITDA
Ammonia and UAN pricing
Renewable fuel compliance costs
Dividend declarations

CVI Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

Further Reading

Research and guides that put CVI’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.

BeginnerWhat Is an AI Stock Score? How BriMindInvest Ranks StocksMarket TheoryStock Market Seasonality: Monthly Returns, 'Sell in May,' and What History SaysMarket TheoryWe Backtested 929 Insider Cluster Buys — The Signal Everyone Trusts Loses to the S&P 500Fundamentals58% of Insider Selling Is Noise — How to Find the Part That Matters

More Energy Stock Analysis

In-depth reports on companies operating alongside CVI — business models, bull and bear cases, and the metrics that matter.

PBFPBF Energy Inc.Petroleum RefiningDINOHF Sinclair CorporationRefining, Renewables & LubricantsDKDelek US Holdings, Inc.Refining, Logistics & Retail FuelXOMExxon Mobil CorporationIntegrated Oil & GasCVXChevron CorporationIntegrated Oil & GasCOPConocoPhillipsIndependent Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionVLOValero Energy CorporationOil & Gas Refining & MarketingPSXPhillips 66Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Unlock the Full CVI Analysis

Interactive price charts, real-time AI signals, advanced DCF models, portfolio tracking, earnings analysis, and side-by-side peer comparisons. Start your 14-day free trial — no credit card required.

Start Free TrialBrowse All Stocks
Data sources: Financial metrics and market data sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations disclosures. Price data, analyst consensus targets, and fundamental financials provided by financial market data providers. ETF data sourced from official fund prospectuses and index provider publications. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology and Disclaimer for details.
← Back to Home · Browse All Stock Analysis