January 2022. Nasdaq at all-time highs. But the Fed is about to launch the most aggressive rate-hike cycle in 40 years. Over 18 months, tech will fall 34%. False rallies will burn you if you buy too early. Then AI arrives and changes everything. The ultimate test of patience and conviction.

What This Scenario Teaches

Nasdaq at all-time high. Tech dominates. But CPI at 7% — highest in 40 years. Fed signals rate hikes are coming. Is the party ending?

Fed confirms 3-4 hikes in 2022. Russia masses 150K troops on Ukraine border. -5.8%. Rate-sensitive growth stocks hit hardest.

Russia invades Ukraine. Oil spikes to $130. First rate hike: +0.25%. War + inflation + hikes simultaneously. Stagflation fears surging.

Inflation hits 8.5% — worst since 1981. Fed signals may need to go even faster. Netflix loses subscribers for first time. Tech rout accelerates.

Fed hikes +0.5% — largest since 2000. Chair Powell: '2-3 more 50bp hikes likely.' Crypto crashes 50%. Growth stocks in freefall.

+0.75% hike — largest since 1994. Recession probability >50%. Consumer sentiment lowest since 1952. Nasdaq -31% YTD. Capitulation?

Relief rally: +12%. Q2 earnings better than feared. Market whisper: is the Fed about to pivot? June may have been the bottom. Cautious optimism.

Powell at Jackson Hole: 'WILL cause economic pain. Rates staying high.' Obliterates pivot hopes. -8% in 3 days. Bear market resumes.

Another +0.75% hike. UK pension crisis. Strongest dollar in 20 years. -10% this month. Now -34% from ATH. Worst year for 60/40 portfolio in 100 years.

Q3 earnings: better than feared. First signs inflation cooling. Relief rally +5%. Bears argue: too early. Bulls argue: priced in. Nobody knows.

CPI slows for first time. Markets explode +8% in one day. FTX crypto exchange collapses. Mixed signals everywhere — is the bear over?

Fed: rates higher for longer; no cuts until 2024. Holiday sell-off. S&P finishes 2022: -19.4%. Worst year since 2008. Gloom everywhere.

New year optimism. Soft landing hopes. Tech layoffs (Meta: 11K, Microsoft: 10K) signal cost discipline. +8% month. Soft landing possible?

Silicon Valley Bank collapses — biggest bank failure since 2008. But Fed pauses hikes. Crisis contained. Markets shrug it off. +5%.

NVIDIA EARNINGS SHOCK: $11B guidance vs $7B expected. AI demand is 'surging beyond supply.' ChatGPT is transforming everything. Tech rerating begins.

AI spending confirmed: Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Amazon all guiding higher. Fed final hike +0.25%. Tech sector recovers to near ATH.

Bond yields spike to 5% — highest since 2007. Stocks sell off briefly but resilient. Market has repriced for higher-for-longer successfully.

Fed signals 3 cuts in 2024. Year-end rally. Nasdaq fully recovered. AI theme dominates. Those who held through 34% decline made 52% from the low.

Survive 18 months of Fed tightening — then ride the AI boom

The Rate Hike Bear