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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis 2026

IndustrialsDefense Aerospace
$551.55as of 2026-08-04

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
50
Neutral
Price CAGR
11.1%
1Y Return
-7.5%
Analyst Upside
+18.6%
Rev Growth
5.1%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$509.27-7.7% potential
Bear Case
$342.94
Bull Case
$776.62
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About Northrop Grumman Corporation

Northrop Grumman is one of the world's largest defense contractors, specializing in aerospace systems, space systems, mission systems, and defense electronics. The company is the prime contractor for the B-21 Raider stealth bomber — the most advanced bomber in US history — and provides key systems for strategic missiles (Ground Based Strategic Deterrent), space (James Webb Space Telescope components, satellite systems), and cyber/electronic warfare. Northrop is less exposed to ground vehicles and ship-based systems than peers, focusing on air, space, and cyber domains.

How Northrop Makes Money

Northrop earns through cost-plus and fixed-price government defense contracts. Major programs include the B-21 Raider (long-term production program), GBSD nuclear missile (replacing Minuteman III), E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (carrier-based surveillance aircraft), Space systems (satellites, launch vehicles), and cybersecurity/electronic warfare. The defense business generates steady, inflation-linked revenue with long program lifetimes measured in decades.

Northrop Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how Northrop's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$42.89B
Cost of Revenue
-$34.29B
Gross Profit
$8.60B20.1% margin
Operating Expenses
-$3.63B
Operating Income
$4.98B11.6% margin
Tax & Other
-$481.2M
Net Income
$4.50B10.5% margin
Gross Margin
20.1%
Operating Margin
11.6%
Net Margin
10.5%
EBITDA Margin
15.7%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$77.07B
Enterprise Value
$86.88B
P/E (Trailing)
17.24
P/E (Forward)
17.86
EV / EBITDA
13.70
Price / Sales
1.74
Price / Book
4.71
Revenue
$42.89B
Revenue Growth
5.1%
Earnings Growth
-5.8%
EBITDA
$6.34B
Gross Margin
20.1%
Operating Margin
11.6%
Net Margin
10.5%
Return on Equity
27.0%
Return on Assets
7.1%
Free Cash Flow
$2.48B
Total Cash
$1.68B
Total Debt
$18.13B
Debt / Equity
95.35
Current Ratio
1.17
Quick Ratio
1.01
Beta
-0.10
Dividend Yield
1.7%
Payout Ratio
29.9%
Book Value / Share
$120.50

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingBuy(23 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$477.00-13.5%
Mean Target$643.62+16.7% upside
High Target$631.00+14.4%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for NOC

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$361.56
-34.4% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$361.56 – $361.56
Average Estimate
$361.56
Potential Downside
-34.4%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

NOC Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • B-21 Raider is Northrop's generational program — potentially 100+ aircraft at $550M+ each, plus decades of sustainment and upgrades, representing a multi-decade revenue stream.
  • Space domain awareness and satellite capabilities are growing defense priorities as US competes with China and Russia in the space domain.
  • Nuclear modernization (GBSD replacing aging Minuteman III ICBMs) is a major, unavoidable government program with no substitute contractor.
  • Defense budget growth driven by Ukraine/Russia conflict, China competition, and European NATO spending increases benefits Northrop's high-tech capabilities.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • B-21 program is being developed at significant financial risk — the initial fixed-price development contract has caused Northrop to take multi-billion dollar write-downs as costs exceeded estimates.
  • Defense budget pressures (debt ceiling debates, continuing resolutions) can delay contract awards and slow program funding.
  • Northrop's margins on the B-21 development phase are negative — profitability from the program comes in production and sustainment, years away.
  • Competition from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and international defense contractors in some categories puts pressure on Northrop's program win rates.

What to Watch: NOC Key Metrics

B-21 production contract milestones
Backlog growth and composition
Operating margin by segment
GBSD/Sentinel program progress
R&D spending as % of revenue

NOC Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

Compare NOC with Peers

NOC vs RTXNorthrop Grumman vs RTX — Which Defense Stock Wins?
HII vs NOCHuntington Ingalls vs Northrop Grumman — Shipbuilding v
NOC vs GDNorthrop Grumman vs General Dynamics — Stealth Bomber v
SPCX vs NOCSpaceX vs Northrop Grumman — New Space vs B-21 Bomber D
LMT vs NOCLockheed Martin vs Northrop Grumman — F-35 Fighter vs B
NOC vs BANorthrop Grumman vs Boeing — Pure Defense vs Commercial

NOC — Related Investment Themes

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