Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) Stock Analysis 2026

IndustrialsBuilding Products & Equipment
$50.85
as of 2026-10-29
-24.9% (52-week)50D MA $46.59  |  200D MA $40.94

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
41
Neutral
Price CAGR
14.3%
1Y Return
+3.0%
Analyst Upside
+8.5%
Rev Growth
7.8%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$56.92+11.9% potential
Bear Case
$39.23
Bull Case
$68.24
Model Confidence90%

An even blend of the BriMind AI model's DCF and momentum target ($58.32) and Wall Street's consensus target ($55.53).

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

TREX Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how TREX's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$1.21B
Cost of Revenue
-$746.4M
Gross Profit
$461.5M38.2% margin
Operating Expenses
-$212.4M
Operating Income
$249.1M20.6% margin
Tax & Other
-$71.7M
Net Income
$177.4M14.7% margin
Gross Margin
38.2%
Operating Margin
20.6%
Net Margin
14.7%

Key Financial Metrics

Trex Company, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 25.72x, generates $69.7M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 30.03, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 17.7% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.

Market Cap
$4.45B
P/E (Trailing)
25.72
P/E (Forward)
21.68
PEG Ratio
1.00
Price / Book
4.56
Revenue
$1.21B
Revenue Growth
7.8%
Earnings Growth
-15.2%
EPS (Trailing)
$1.70
EPS (Forward)
$2.02
Gross Margin
38.2%
Operating Margin
20.6%
Net Margin
14.7%
Return on Equity
17.7%
Return on Assets
9.6%
Free Cash Flow
$69.7M
Debt / Equity
30.03
Current Ratio
1.06
Quick Ratio
0.60
Beta
1.47
Dividend Yield
None
Payout Ratio
0.0%
Insider Ownership
0.9%
Inst. Ownership
115.4%
Short % Float
10.0%
Book Value / Share
$9.58

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Wall Street analysts covering Trex Company, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $54.67 (+7.5% vs the current price). Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.

Mean Target$54.67+7.5% upside

Intrinsic Value Estimates for TREX

We use 3 valuation models to estimate TREX's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.

Graham Number
$19.15
-62.3% vs current
Benjamin Graham's formula: √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). A conservative floor value for stable, profitable companies. Works best for value-oriented businesses.
P/E Based (15× trailing)
$25.50
-49.9% vs current
Multiplies trailing 12-month earnings per share by 15× — a historically average P/E for the stock market. Simple but ignores future growth.
P/E Based (15× forward)
$30.25
-40.5% vs current
Multiplies next year's estimated earnings per share by 15×. More forward-looking; useful for high-growth companies where current earnings understate potential.
Fair Value Range
$19.15 – $30.25
Average Estimate
$24.97
Potential Downside
-50.9%

Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

Technical Price Signals

TREX is currently in a golden cross pattern, trading above its 50-day average of $46.59 and above its 200-day average of $40.94. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.

Current Price
$50.85
50-Day MA
$46.59
▲ Price above
200-Day MA
$40.94
▲ Price above
Golden Cross Pattern
Price above both MAs — bullish signal

Compare TREX with Peers

TREX vs MASTrex vs Masco — Composite Decking vs Cabinets/Faucets H

Further Reading

Research and guides that put TREX’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.

Fundamentals58% of Insider Selling Is Noise — How to Find the Part That MattersMarket TheoryThe Stock-Split Pop Is a Myth: What 39 Real Splits Actually DidMarket Theory10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High: What 5.2% Means for StocksRisk ManagementBest ETFs for a Recession-Proof Portfolio in 2026

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Data sources: Financial metrics and market data sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations disclosures. Price data, analyst consensus targets, and fundamental financials provided by financial market data providers. ETF data sourced from official fund prospectuses and index provider publications. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology and Disclaimer for details.
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