When ARXS insiders can sell

Arxis, Inc. · IPO prospectus filed 2026-04-16 · Single cliff · 180-day lock-up

Scheduled lock-up expiry
2026-10-13
Absorbed

That is the calendar date the clause computes to, counted from the prospectus date. It is the only date computable without knowing a future earnings date, which is why everything that could pull it earlier is printed below it on this page rather than folded into it.

How much stock, against how much trades

"Absorb days" is the shares coming free divided by average daily volume: how many full sessions of ARXS's entire turnover the release amounts to. It is a ratio, not a forecast — it does not know who wants to sell, and a founder with no intention of selling counts the same as a fund that has been waiting six months.

Shares coming free
23.2M
Avg daily volume
964K
Absorb days
24.0 sessions
Cohort percentile
11th
Offer price
$28.00
Vs offer
+78.2%

Exactly 23,153,980 shares, against 963,840 shares a day averaged over 20 sessions. Volume source: yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table), through 2026-11-06. Dollar volume $48.1M a day. Lightest third of the cohort.

Our call: Absorbed

ARXS sits in the lightest third of a cohort of 47 deals — lightest third at or below 54.1 sessions, heaviest at or above 109 sessions. The call is cohort-relative, not a fixed threshold, so the same absorb-day figure could read differently against a different month's IPOs. Expected excess return against SPY: non-negative.

Issued 2026-09-27, 16 days before the expiry, as call ARXS-2026-10-13. The ledger is append-only and lives in git, so the date on that row cannot be moved after the fact — which is the entire reason these calls are published ahead of the event instead of tested afterwards.

The lock-up clause, in the issuer's words

Every other free lock-up calendar tells you 180 days and moves on. This is the actual sentence the date above was computed from, so that if the words do not support the number, the number is wrong and the filing is one click away.

LLC and Jefferies LLC for a period of 180 days after the date of this prospectus (the "restricted period"). The restrictions on our actions, as described above, do not apply to certain customary transactions, including (A) the offer, issuance, sale and disposition of the shares of Class A common stock in this offering; (B) the issuance of our stock pursuant to employee stock option plans existing on, or upon the conversion or exchange of convertible or exchangeable securities outstanding as of, the date of this prospectus; (C) grants of stock options, stock awards, restricted stock, RSUs, st…

Where the share count comes from

23,153,980 shares — derived: shares outstanding after the offering, less the shares sold in it. A count the prospectus prints and a count derived from two of its other numbers are not the same quality of claim, so which one this is gets said rather than implied.

Shares outstanding after the offering63,653,980
Shares sold in the offering40,500,000
Locked up, coming free at expiry23,153,980
The sentence the count was read from
Upon completion of this offering, we will have 63,653,980 shares of Class A common stock outstanding (or 69,728,980 shares of Class A common stock if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares in full), 340,676,786 shares of Class B common stock outstanding, no shares of Class C common stock outstanding and one share of convertible common stock outstanding. All shares sold in this offering will be freely transferable without restriction or registration under the Securities Act, except for any shares purchased by one of our "affiliates," as that term is defined in Rule 144 under the Securities Act.

Exceptions written into the lock-up (5)

Each of these is a route by which ARXS shares can move before 2026-10-13. The 10b5-1 carve-out is the one worth reading twice: it lets insiders put a selling plan in place during the lock-up, so the first sales can be automatic and immediate rather than discretionary and later.

  • 10b5-1 plan
  • bona fide gift or charitable transfer
  • estate planning or family transfer
  • directed share program participants
  • option exercise or RSU settlement
10b5-1 plan
(vii) above, that the donee, devisee, transferee or distributee has agreed to be bound by a lock-up agreement in the form of the lock-up agreement; (b) enter into or amend a written plan meeting the requirements of Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act relating to the transfer, sale or other disposition of the lock-up party's lock-up securities, if then permitted by us, provided that none of the securities subject to such plan may be transferred, sold or otherwise disposed of until after the expiration of the lock-up period and no public announcement, report or filing under the Exchange Act, or any other public filing, report or announ…
bona fide gift or charitable transfer
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the lock-up parties may: (a) transfer the lock-up securities: (i) as one or more bona fide gifts or charitable contributions, or for bona fide estate planning purposes, (ii) upon death by will, testamentary document or intestate succession, (iii) if the party is a natural person, to any member of the lock-up party's immediate family (for purposes of the lock-up agreement, "immediate family" shall mean any relationship by blood, current or former marriage, domestic partnership or adoption, not mor…
estate planning or family transfer
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the lock-up parties may: (a) transfer the lock-up securities: (i) as one or more bona fide gifts or charitable contributions, or for bona fide estate planning purposes, (ii) upon death by will, testamentary document or intestate succession, (iii) if the party is a natural person, to any member of the lock-up party's immediate family (for purposes of the lock-up agreement, "immediate family" shall mean any relationship by blood, current or former marriage, domestic partnership or adoption, not more remote than first cousin) or to any trust, partnership, limi…
directed share program participants
…r Class A common stock, or 5% of the shares being offered pursuant to this prospectus, for sale at the initial public offering price to certain individuals and entities as determined by certain of our officers through a directed share program. See "Underwriting—Directed Share Program" for additional information. One or more funds and/or accounts managed by Capital International Investors, one or more funds and/or accounts managed by Capital Research Global Investors, certain funds and accounts managed by Janus Henderson Investors, and certain accounts advised by T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. (the "Cornerstone Investors")
option exercise or RSU settlement
Grant and Exercise of Options . Each participant will be granted, on the first trading day of an offering period (the "grant date") an option to purchase, on each purchase date during the offering period, a number of shares of our Class A common stock determined by dividing the participant's accumulated payroll deductions by the applicable purchase price. Unless determined otherwise by the compensation committee, the purchase price for the option will be 85% of the fair market value of a share of our Class A common stock on the purchase date.

How this call scored

HorizonARXSSPYExcessResult
+5 sessions+4.5%-1.2%+5.6%hit

How this reading of ARXS could be wrong

The lock-up period is restated 3 times in this prospectus. Issuers repeat the clause on the cover, in the summary, in the risk factors and in the underwriting section, and the wording is not always identical. The parser resolved them to one period; if a reader finds a restatement that disagrees, the quote above is the one it used.

The volume is a vendor's, not ours. ARXS is not in our own price table, so average daily volume comes from yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table). Vendor bars for recently listed symbols are the ones most likely to be wrong.

Only 20 sessions of volume history. This is a recent IPO, and early volume is dominated by the offering itself. An average over 20 sessions of a stock that has barely traded is the weakest input on the page, and absorb days inherits every bit of that weakness.

The parser can misread a filing. That is why every number here is printed next to the words it came from. Earlier versions of this parser read the underwriters' 30-day over-allotment window as a 30-day lock-up on five deals, and double-counted one issuer's share total because the offering summary appears on both the cover and in the summary section.

Also unlocking in 2026-10 (10)

Lock-ups cluster, because IPOs cluster: these priced in the same window as ARXS and come free in the same month. Several heavy releases landing together is a different situation from one.

DealExpiryShares freeAbsorb days
SKHY
SK hynix Inc.
2026-10-08——
ALMR
Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
2026-10-1455.3M68.6 sessions
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
2026-10-1484.6M83.0 sessions
AVEX
AEVEX Corp.
2026-10-1795.6M34.5 sessions
ELMT
Elmet Group Co.
2026-10-2020.3M43.0 sessions
YSWY
Yesway, Inc.
2026-10-20——
XE
X-Energy, Inc.
2026-10-24348.1M54.2 sessions
AVLN
Avalyn Pharma Inc.
2026-10-2725.1M60.1 sessions
SPTX
Seaport Therapeutics, Inc.
2026-10-2838.9M160 sessions
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.
2026-10-28——

Learn to read these clauses yourself

The flow arithmetic on this page — shares unlocking divided by average daily volume, and why the clause has to be read rather than assumed — taught step by step, free.

Lesson 6 →

Radar built 2026-11-07 from EDGAR full-text search over 424B4 filings · all 80 parsed lock-ups and the scoreboard · ARXS's prospectus on EDGAR · what funds carried these companies at before listing