When FRVO insiders can sell
Fervo Energy Co · IPO prospectus filed 2026-05-14 · Single cliff · 180-day lock-up
That is the calendar date the clause computes to, counted from the prospectus date. It is the only date computable without knowing a future earnings date, which is why everything that could pull it earlier is printed below it on this page rather than folded into it.
How much stock, against how much trades
"Absorb days" is the shares coming free divided by average daily volume: how many full sessions of FRVO's entire turnover the release amounts to. It is a ratio, not a forecast — it does not know who wants to sell, and a founder with no intention of selling counts the same as a fund that has been waiting six months.
Exactly 205,005,185 shares, against 9,198,930 shares a day averaged over 20 sessions. Volume source: yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table), through 2026-11-06. Dollar volume $83.1M a day. Lightest third of the cohort.
Our call: Absorbed
FRVO sits in the lightest third of a cohort of 47 deals — lightest third at or below 54.1 sessions, heaviest at or above 109 sessions. The call is cohort-relative, not a fixed threshold, so the same absorb-day figure could read differently against a different month's IPOs. Expected excess return against SPY: non-negative.
Issued 2026-09-27, 44 days before the expiry, as call FRVO-2026-11-10. The ledger is append-only and lives in git, so the date on that row cannot be moved after the fact — which is the entire reason these calls are published ahead of the event instead of tested afterwards.
The lock-up clause, in the issuer's words
Every other free lock-up calendar tells you 180 days and moves on. This is the actual sentence the date above was computed from, so that if the words do not support the number, the number is wrong and the filing is one click away.
…on behalf of the underwriters, we and they will not, and will not publicly disclose an intention to, dispose of or hedge any shares of our Class A common stock or securities convertible into or exchangeable for shares of our Class A common stock during the period ending 180 days after the date of this prospectus, subject to certain exceptions. See "Underwriting" for a description of these lock-up agreements. Upon the expiration of the contractual lock-up agreements pertaining to this offering, up to an additional 205,005,185 shares of our Class A common stock will be eligible for sale in the public market, of which 89,126,623 are held by directors, executive officers and other affiliates and will be subject to volume, manner of sale and other limitations under Rule 144. Following completion of this offering, shares cove…
Where the share count comes from
205,005,185 shares — stated in the prospectus. A count the prospectus prints and a count derived from two of its other numbers are not the same quality of claim, so which one this is gets said rather than implied.
| Shares outstanding after the offering | 283,562,333 |
| Shares sold in the offering | 70,000,000 |
| Held by affiliates | 89,126,623 |
| Locked up, coming free at expiry | 205,005,185 |
Upon the expiration of the contractual lock-up agreements pertaining to this offering, up to an additional 205,005,185 shares of our Class A common stock will be eligible for sale in the public market, of which 89,126,623 are held by directors, executive officers and other affiliates and will be subject to volume, manner of sale and other limitations under Rule 144. Following completion of this offering, shares covered by registration rights would represent approximately 71% of our outstanding Class A common stock (or approximately 69%, if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares). Registration of any of these outstanding shares of Class A common stock would result in such shares becoming freely tradable without compliance with Rule 144 upon effectiveness of the registration statement.
Upon the expiration of the contractual lock-up agreements pertaining to this offering, up to an additional 205,005,185 shares of our Class A common stock will be eligible for sale in the public market, of which 89,126,623 are held by directors, executive officers and other affiliates and will be subject to volume, manner of sale and other limitations under Rule 144. Following completion of this offering, shares covered by registration rights would represent approximately 71% of our outstanding Class A common stock (or approximately 69%, if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares). Registration of any of these outstanding shares of Class A common stock would result in such shares becoming freely tradable without compliance with Rule 144 upon effectiveness of the registration statement.
Exceptions written into the lock-up (4)
Each of these is a route by which FRVO shares can move before 2026-11-10. The 10b5-1 carve-out is the one worth reading twice: it lets insiders put a selling plan in place during the lock-up, so the first sales can be automatic and immediate rather than discretionary and later.
- 10b5-1 plan
- bona fide gift or charitable transfer
- estate planning or family transfer
- option exercise or RSU settlement
…rrant received upon such conversion would be subject to restrictions similar to those in the 191 Table of Contents immediately preceding paragraph and (d) the establishment by lock-up parties of trading plans under Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act, provided that such plan does not provide for the transfer of lock-up securities during the restricted period. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and BofA Securities, Inc., in their sole discretion, may release the securities subject to any of the lock-up agreements with the underwriters described above, in whole or in part at any time. Sales, short sales, or hedging transactions involving our equity securities, whether before or after this offering and whether or not we believe them to be prohibited, could adversely affect the price of our Class A common stock.
…k-up agreements between the underwriters and the lock-up parties do not apply, subject in certain cases to various conditions, to certain transactions, including (a) transfers or disposals of lock-up securities (i) as a bona fide gift or gifts or charitable contributions, or for bona fide estate planning purposes, (ii) by will or intestacy or any other testamentary document, (iii) to any member of the undersigned's immediate family or to any trust for the direct or indirect benefit of the lock-up party or any immediate family member, (iv) to a corporation, partnership, limited liability company, investment fund or other entity (A) o…
…one share of our Class A common stock at any time at the election of the holder and will convert automatically upon any transfer, except for permitted transfers, described in our Amended Charter, including transfers to immediate family members (including upon Mr. Latimer's or Dr. Norbeck's death), trusts (including grantor retained annuity trusts) for which the stockholder or their immediate family member serves as trustee, and partnerships, corporations, and other entities exclusively owned by Mr. Latimer or Dr. Norbeck or either of their immediate families, and upon the earliest to occur of (i) the first trading day following the seventh anniversary of this offering, (ii) the date on which the number of shares of Class A and Class B common stock beneficially owned by Mr.
Norbeck, each of our Co- Founders will have a right to require us to exchange any shares of Class A common stock received upon the exercise of stock options granted under our 2019 Plan and outstanding prior to the date of effectiveness of the registration statement of which this prospectus forms a part, for an equivalent number of shares of Class B common stock. This includes an aggregate of 20,269,508 shares underlying outstanding options held by Mr. Latimer and Dr. Norbeck. The Equity Award Exchange Agreement does not cover any equity awards granted to Mr.
How this call scored
Not yet graded. Scoring needs the close on or before 2026-11-10 plus the next 5 and then 21 sessions, so a result cannot exist before those sessions have happened. This space is empty because the clock has not run, not because the result is being withheld — and when it fills, it fills whichever way the market went. The full scoreboard publishes every graded leg against the naive baseline that every unlock gets absorbed.
How this reading of FRVO could be wrong
The lock-up period is restated 6 times in this prospectus. Issuers repeat the clause on the cover, in the summary, in the risk factors and in the underwriting section, and the wording is not always identical. The parser resolved them to one period; if a reader finds a restatement that disagrees, the quote above is the one it used.
The volume is a vendor's, not ours. FRVO is not in our own price table, so average daily volume comes from yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table). Vendor bars for recently listed symbols are the ones most likely to be wrong.
Only 20 sessions of volume history. This is a recent IPO, and early volume is dominated by the offering itself. An average over 20 sessions of a stock that has barely traded is the weakest input on the page, and absorb days inherits every bit of that weakness.
The parser can misread a filing. That is why every number here is printed next to the words it came from. Earlier versions of this parser read the underwriters' 30-day over-allotment window as a 30-day lock-up on five deals, and double-counted one issuer's share total because the offering summary appears on both the cover and in the summary section.
Also unlocking in 2026-11 (10)
Lock-ups cluster, because IPOs cluster: these priced in the same window as FRVO and come free in the same month. Several heavy releases landing together is a different situation from one.
| Deal | Expiry | Shares free | Absorb days |
|---|---|---|---|
| REA Rare Earths Americas, Inc. | 2026-11-03 | — | — |
| HAWK HawkEye 360, Inc. | 2026-11-03 | 77.1M | 44.3 sessions |
| ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-11-04 | 27.1M | 94.8 sessions |
| SUJA SUJA LIFE, INC. | 2026-11-04 | 29.7M | 179 sessions |
| GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 22.1M | 32.8 sessions |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 212.9M | 18.7 sessions |
| EROK EagleRock Land, LLC | 2026-11-10 | — | — |
| BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. | 2026-11-11 | — | — |
| GUAC Berto Acquisition Corp. II | 2026-11-14 | — | — |
| LCLN Lincoln International, Inc. | 2026-11-17 | — | — |
Learn to read these clauses yourself
The flow arithmetic on this page — shares unlocking divided by average daily volume, and why the clause has to be read rather than assumed — taught step by step, free.
Radar built 2026-11-07 from EDGAR full-text search over 424B4 filings · all 80 parsed lock-ups and the scoreboard · FRVO's prospectus on EDGAR · what funds carried these companies at before listing