When HAWK insiders can sell
HawkEye 360, Inc. · IPO prospectus filed 2026-05-07 · Earlier of two dates · 180-day lock-up
That is the calendar date the clause computes to, counted from the prospectus date. It is the only date computable without knowing a future earnings date, which is why everything that could pull it earlier is printed below it on this page rather than folded into it. This deal has 1 such trigger, so the first real release may be weeks sooner.
How much stock, against how much trades
"Absorb days" is the shares coming free divided by average daily volume: how many full sessions of HAWK's entire turnover the release amounts to. It is a ratio, not a forecast — it does not know who wants to sell, and a founder with no intention of selling counts the same as a fund that has been waiting six months.
Exactly 77,084,412 shares, against 1,739,295 shares a day averaged over 20 sessions. Volume source: yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table), through 2026-11-06. Dollar volume $25.7M a day. Lightest third of the cohort.
Our call: Absorbed
HAWK sits in the lightest third of a cohort of 47 deals — lightest third at or below 54.1 sessions, heaviest at or above 109 sessions. The call is cohort-relative, not a fixed threshold, so the same absorb-day figure could read differently against a different month's IPOs. Expected excess return against SPY: non-negative.
Issued 2026-10-17, 17 days before the expiry, as call HAWK-2026-11-03. The ledger is append-only and lives in git, so the date on that row cannot be moved after the fact — which is the entire reason these calls are published ahead of the event instead of tested afterwards.
The lock-up clause, in the issuer's words
Every other free lock-up calendar tells you 180 days and moves on. This is the actual sentence the date above was computed from, so that if the words do not support the number, the number is wrong and the filing is one click away.
…ictions contained in the lock-up agreements described above, we have entered into agreements with certain of our security holders that contain market stand-off provisions imposing restrictions on the ability of such security holders to sell or otherwise transfer or dispose of any registrable securities for a period of 180 days following the date of this prospectus. Registration Rights Upon the closing of this offering, the holders of 72,916,038 shares of our common stock, including common stock issuable upon the conversion of our convertible preferred stock, or their transferees, will be entitled to specified rights with respect to the registration of their registrable shares under the Securities Act, subject to certain limitations and the expiration, waiver or termination of the lock-up agreements. Registration of these shares under the Securities Act would result in the shares becoming……
Where the share count comes from
77,084,412 shares — derived: shares outstanding after the offering, less the shares sold in it. A count the prospectus prints and a count derived from two of its other numbers are not the same quality of claim, so which one this is gets said rather than implied.
| Shares outstanding after the offering | 93,084,412 |
| Shares sold in the offering | 16,000,000 |
| Locked up, coming free at expiry | 77,084,412 |
Common stock to be outstanding immediately after this offering 93,084,412 shares (or 95,484,412 shares if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares of common stock). Use of proceeds We estimate that the net proceeds from this offering will be approximately $377.9 million (or approximately $435.9 million if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase up to 2,400,000 additional shares of common stock), after deducting the underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by us.
What can pull the date earlier (1)
A lock-up that ends on "the earlier of" two events does not end on the date in the calendar. These are the clauses that can move it, each quoted from the filing.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, if the lock-up period would otherwise be scheduled to end during, or within five trading days prior to, a regularly-scheduled blackout period under our insider trading policy, and such date is more than 100 days following the date of this prospectus, then the lock-up period will instead end on the date that is ten trading days prior to the commencement of such regularly-scheduled blackout period (the "Conditional Early Termination Date") provided , however , that promptly upon our determination of the Conditional Early Termination Date, and in any event at least five trading days in advance of the Conditional Early Ter…
Exceptions written into the lock-up (6)
Each of these is a route by which HAWK shares can move before 2026-11-03. The 10b5-1 carve-out is the one worth reading twice: it lets insiders put a selling plan in place during the lock-up, so the first sales can be automatic and immediate rather than discretionary and later.
- 10b5-1 plan
- bona fide gift or charitable transfer
- estate planning or family transfer
- directed share program participants
- option exercise or RSU settlement
- underwriter discretionary release
Rule 10b5-1 Sales Plans Our directors and executive officers may adopt written plans, known as Rule 10b5-1 plans, in which they will contract with a broker to buy or sell shares of our common stock on a periodic basis. Under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a broker executes trades pursuant to parameters established by the director or 195 Table of Contents executive officer when entering into the plan, without further direction from them.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the lock-up parties may (a) transfer the lock-up securities, (i) as one or more bona fide gifts or charitable contributions, or for bona fide estate planning purposes, (ii) upon death by will, testamentary document or intestate succession, (iii) if the lock-up party is a natural person, to any member of the lock-up party's immediate family (for purposes of the lock-up agreement, "immediate family" will mean any relationship by blood, current or former marriage, domestic partnership or adoption,…
…of the average of our total assets at year end for the last two completed fiscal years, and in which any of our directors, executive officers or holders of more than 5% of our voting securities, or any members of their immediate family, had or will have a direct or indirect material interest, other than compensation arrangements which are described under "Executive Compensation." Private Placements of Our Securities Series D-1 Preferred Stock Financing and Warrants In July 2023, we entered into a Series D-1 preferred stock purchase agreement (the "Series D-1 Purchase Agreement") with certain investors, including beneficial owners o…
…,000 shares of our common stock, or 5% of the shares offered by this prospectus (excluding the additional shares that the underwriters have an option to purchase), for sale at the initial public offering price through a directed share program to certain of our directors, officers, employees and others. See the section entitled " Underwriting — Directed Share Program " for additional information. The underwriters expect to deliver the shares of common stock against payment in New York, New York on or about May 8, 2026. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC* Morgan Stanley* *(listed in alphabetical order) RBC Capital Markets Jefferies BofA Securiti…
…ruary 2026) into an aggregate of 68,987,988 shares of common stock upon the closing of this offering and the Warrant Net Exercises (as defined below), and excludes 14,675,271 shares of our common stock issuable upon the exercise of options outstanding as of December 31, 2025 under our 2015 Stock Incentive Plan (the "2015 Plan"), at a weighted-average exercise price of $2.73 per share (of which 1,521,792 shares of our common stock were issued pursuant to the exercise of options with a weighted-average exercise price of $2.26 per share subsequent to December 31, 2025) 182,786 shares of our common stock subject to restricted stock unit…
In addition, the underwriters may, in their sole discretion, release all or some portion of the shares subject to the lock-up agreements prior to the expiration of the lock-up period. See "Shares Eligible for Future Sale." As restrictions on resale end, the market price of our shares of common stock could drop significantly if the holders of these shares sell them or are perceived by the market as intending to sell them. These factors could also make it more difficult for us to raise additional funds through future offerings of our shares of common stock or other securities.
How this call scored
Not yet graded. Scoring needs the close on or before 2026-11-03 plus the next 5 and then 21 sessions, so a result cannot exist before those sessions have happened. This space is empty because the clock has not run, not because the result is being withheld — and when it fills, it fills whichever way the market went. The full scoreboard publishes every graded leg against the naive baseline that every unlock gets absorbed.
How this reading of HAWK could be wrong
The volume is a vendor's, not ours. HAWK is not in our own price table, so average daily volume comes from yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table). Vendor bars for recently listed symbols are the ones most likely to be wrong.
Only 20 sessions of volume history. This is a recent IPO, and early volume is dominated by the offering itself. An average over 20 sessions of a stock that has barely traded is the weakest input on the page, and absorb days inherits every bit of that weakness.
The parser can misread a filing. That is why every number here is printed next to the words it came from. Earlier versions of this parser read the underwriters' 30-day over-allotment window as a 30-day lock-up on five deals, and double-counted one issuer's share total because the offering summary appears on both the cover and in the summary section.
Also unlocking in 2026-11 (10)
Lock-ups cluster, because IPOs cluster: these priced in the same window as HAWK and come free in the same month. Several heavy releases landing together is a different situation from one.
| Deal | Expiry | Shares free | Absorb days |
|---|---|---|---|
| REA Rare Earths Americas, Inc. | 2026-11-03 | — | — |
| ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-11-04 | 27.1M | 94.8 sessions |
| SUJA SUJA LIFE, INC. | 2026-11-04 | 29.7M | 179 sessions |
| FRVO Fervo Energy Co | 2026-11-10 | 205.0M | 22.3 sessions |
| GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 22.1M | 32.8 sessions |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. | 2026-11-10 | 212.9M | 18.7 sessions |
| EROK EagleRock Land, LLC | 2026-11-10 | — | — |
| BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. | 2026-11-11 | — | — |
| GUAC Berto Acquisition Corp. II | 2026-11-14 | — | — |
| LCLN Lincoln International, Inc. | 2026-11-17 | — | — |
Learn to read these clauses yourself
The flow arithmetic on this page — shares unlocking divided by average daily volume, and why the clause has to be read rather than assumed — taught step by step, free.
Radar built 2026-11-07 from EDGAR full-text search over 424B4 filings · all 80 parsed lock-ups and the scoreboard · HAWK's prospectus on EDGAR · what funds carried these companies at before listing