Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) Stock Analysis 2026

Financial ServicesBanks - Regional
$55.60
as of 2026-10-29
+3.6% (52-week)50D MA $58.67  |  200D MA $53.64

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
39
Weak
Price CAGR
3.7%
1Y Return
+5.4%
Analyst Upside
+16.5%
Rev Growth
14.2%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$62.29+12.0% potential
Bear Case
$51.05
Bull Case
$78.20
Model Confidence90%

An even blend of the BriMind AI model's DCF and momentum target ($60.30) and Wall Street's consensus target ($64.28).

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

CBSH Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how CBSH's revenue flows through to profit. As a financial-sector company, CBSH doesn't report a traditional cost-of-revenue/gross-margin split, so the cascade starts from operating expenses and works down to net income — the actual profit shareholders own. A high net margin indicates efficient expense control and capital allocation.

Revenue
$1.84B
Operating Expenses & Cost of Revenue
-$1.01B
Operating Income
$832.3M45.1% margin
Tax & Other
-$248.7M
Net Income
$583.6M31.6% margin
Operating Margin
45.1%
Net Margin
31.6%

Key Financial Metrics

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 14.25x, hasn't disclosed meaningful free cash flow, hasn't disclosed a debt/equity ratio, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 14.7% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.

Market Cap
$8.34B
P/E (Trailing)
14.25
P/E (Forward)
12.72
PEG Ratio
2.06
Price / Book
1.92
Revenue
$1.84B
Revenue Growth
14.2%
Earnings Growth
1.2%
EPS (Trailing)
$4.08
EPS (Forward)
$4.57
Gross Margin
0.0%
Operating Margin
45.1%
Net Margin
31.6%
Return on Equity
14.7%
Return on Assets
1.7%
Beta
0.58
Dividend Yield
1.9%
Payout Ratio
26.6%
Insider Ownership
2.5%
Inst. Ownership
78.2%
Short % Float
4.5%
Book Value / Share
$30.23

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Wall Street analysts covering Commerce Bancshares, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $65.33 (+17.5% vs the current price). Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.

Mean Target$65.33+17.5% upside

Intrinsic Value Estimates for CBSH

We use 3 valuation models to estimate CBSH's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.

Graham Number
$52.68
-5.3% vs current
Benjamin Graham's formula: √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). A conservative floor value for stable, profitable companies. Works best for value-oriented businesses.
P/E Based (15× trailing)
$61.20
+10.1% vs current
Multiplies trailing 12-month earnings per share by 15× — a historically average P/E for the stock market. Simple but ignores future growth.
P/E Based (15× forward)
$68.57
+23.3% vs current
Multiplies next year's estimated earnings per share by 15×. More forward-looking; useful for high-growth companies where current earnings understate potential.
Fair Value Range
$52.68 – $68.57
Average Estimate
$60.82
Potential Upside
9.4%

Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

Technical Price Signals

CBSH is currently in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 50-day average of $58.67 and above its 200-day average of $53.64. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.

Current Price
$55.60
50-Day MA
$58.67
▼ Price below
200-Day MA
$53.64
▲ Price above
Short-term Downtrend
Below 50-day MA — caution

Further Reading

Research and guides that put CBSH’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.

Fundamentals10 Stock Analysis Tools Every Investor Should Know AboutFundamentalsFactor Investing Guide 2026: Value, Momentum, Quality & Low Volatility — Which Factors Work?Risk ManagementHow to Build Your First Investment Portfolio: Risk Tolerance, Asset Allocation & Your First 5 FundsFundamentalsWarren Buffett Retired 2026: Berkshire Portfolio Under Greg Abel

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Data sources: Financial metrics and market data sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations disclosures. Price data, analyst consensus targets, and fundamental financials provided by financial market data providers. ETF data sourced from official fund prospectuses and index provider publications. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology and Disclaimer for details.
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