When KARD insiders can sell

Kardigan, Inc. · IPO prospectus filed 2026-06-18 · Single cliff · 180-day lock-up

Scheduled lock-up expiry
2026-12-15
Pressure

That is the calendar date the clause computes to, counted from the prospectus date. It is the only date computable without knowing a future earnings date, which is why everything that could pull it earlier is printed below it on this page rather than folded into it.

How much stock, against how much trades

"Absorb days" is the shares coming free divided by average daily volume: how many full sessions of KARD's entire turnover the release amounts to. It is a ratio, not a forecast — it does not know who wants to sell, and a founder with no intention of selling counts the same as a fund that has been waiting six months.

Shares coming free
64.3M
Avg daily volume
520K
Absorb days
124 sessions
Cohort percentile
72th
Offer price
$16.00
Vs offer
-3.0%

Exactly 64,339,121 shares, against 520,095 shares a day averaged over 20 sessions. Volume source: yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table), through 2026-11-06. Dollar volume $8.1M a day. Heaviest third of the cohort.

Our call: Pressure

KARD sits in the heaviest third of a cohort of 47 deals — lightest third at or below 54.1 sessions, heaviest at or above 109 sessions. The call is cohort-relative, not a fixed threshold, so the same absorb-day figure could read differently against a different month's IPOs. Expected excess return against SPY: negative.

Issued 2026-11-07, 38 days before the expiry, as call KARD-2026-12-15. The ledger is append-only and lives in git, so the date on that row cannot be moved after the fact — which is the entire reason these calls are published ahead of the event instead of tested afterwards.

The lock-up clause, in the issuer's words

Every other free lock-up calendar tells you 180 days and moves on. This is the actual sentence the date above was computed from, so that if the words do not support the number, the number is wrong and the filing is one click away.

…ments entered into by our directors, officers and substantially all of our stockholders with the underwriters in connection with this offering under which they have agreed or will agree, subject to specific exceptions described in the section of this prospectus titled " Underwriting ," not to sell any of our stock for 180 days following the date of this prospectus. We refer to such period as the lock-up period. We and certain of the underwriters may release certain stockholders from the market standoff agreements or lock-up agreements prior to the end of the lock-up period. Subject to applicable securities law restrictions, these shares will be able to be sold in the public market beginning on the 181st day after the date of this prospectus. Shares issued upon the exercise of stock options outstanding under our equity incentive plans or pursuant to future awards grant…

Where the share count comes from

64,339,121 shares — derived: shares outstanding after the offering, less the shares sold in it. A count the prospectus prints and a count derived from two of its other numbers are not the same quality of claim, so which one this is gets said rather than implied.

Shares outstanding after the offering89,339,121
Shares sold in the offering25,000,000
Underwriters' over-allotment option3,750,000
Locked up, coming free at expiry64,339,121
The sentence the count was read from
Common stock to be outstanding immediately after this offering 89,339,121 shares (or 93,089,121 shares if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares of common stock in full). We will have two series of common stock authorized immediately following this offering: voting common stock and non-voting common stock. We are offering voting common stock in this offering and unless otherwise noted, all references in this prospectus to our "common stock" refer to our voting common stock. The non-voting common stock will not be listed for trading on any securities exchange.

Exceptions written into the lock-up (6)

Each of these is a route by which KARD shares can move before 2026-12-15. The 10b5-1 carve-out is the one worth reading twice: it lets insiders put a selling plan in place during the lock-up, so the first sales can be automatic and immediate rather than discretionary and later.

  • 10b5-1 plan
  • bona fide gift or charitable transfer
  • estate planning or family transfer
  • directed share program participants
  • option exercise or RSU settlement
  • underwriter discretionary release
10b5-1 plan
…ny common stock or warrant received upon such conversion would be subject to restrictions similar to those in the immediately preceding paragraph; and (d) the establishment by lock-up parties of trading plans under Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act, provided that such plan does not provide for the transfer of lock-up securities during the restricted period. The representatives, in their sole discretion, may release the securities subject to any of the lock-up agreements with the underwriters described above, in whole or in part at any time. We have agreed to indemnify the underwriters against certain liabilities, including liabilities under the Securities Act.
bona fide gift or charitable transfer
…up agreements between the underwriters and the lock-up parties do not apply, subject in certain cases to various conditions, to certain transactions, including (a) transfers or dispositions of lock-up securities: (i) as bona fide gifts, as a charitable contribution, or for bona fide estate planning purposes, (ii) by will or intestacy or any other testamentary document, (iii) to any member of the lock-up party's immediate family or to any trust for the direct or indirect benefit of the lock-up party or any immediate family member or if the lock-up party is a trust, to a trustor, trustee (or co-trustee) or beneficiary of the trust or…
estate planning or family transfer
…nurse specialists, anesthesiologist assistants, certified registered nurse anesthetists, and certified nurse midwives), and teaching hospitals, as well as ownership and investment interests held by physicians and their immediate family members. Federal government price reporting laws, which require manufacturers to calculate and report complex pricing metrics in an accurate and timely manner to government programs. Federal consumer protection and unfair competition laws, which broadly regulate marketplace activities and activities that potentially harm consumers. Analogous state and foreign laws and regulations, such as state and f…
directed share program participants
See the section " Underwriting—Directed share program ." The underwriters expect to deliver the shares against payment on or about June 22, 2026. J.P. Morgan Jefferies Leerink Partners TD Cowen Prospectus dated June 17, 2026 Table of Contents Table of contents Page Prospectus summary 1 The offering 7 Summary consolidated financial data 10 Risk factors 12 Special note regarding forward-looking statements 108 Use of proceeds 110 Dividend policy 111…
option exercise or RSU settlement
…stock that will be outstanding after this offering is based on 64,339,121 shares of common stock (which includes 829,582 shares of unvested restricted common stock and 1,063,561 shares of common stock issued upon early exercise of stock options that remain subject to repurchase) outstanding as of March 31, 2026, after giving effect to the conversion of all outstanding shares of our redeemable convertible preferred stock into an aggregate of 47,764,024 shares of common stock on the date on which the registration statement of which this prospectus is a part was declared effective by the SEC, and excludes: 15,701,114 shares of common…
underwriter discretionary release
We and certain of the underwriters may release certain stockholders from the market standoff agreements or lock-up agreements prior to the end of the lock-up period. Subject to applicable securities law restrictions, these shares will be able to be sold in the public market beginning on the 181st day after the date of this prospectus. Shares issued upon the exercise of stock options outstanding under our equity incentive plans or pursuant to future aw…

How this call scored

Not yet graded. Scoring needs the close on or before 2026-12-15 plus the next 5 and then 21 sessions, so a result cannot exist before those sessions have happened. This space is empty because the clock has not run, not because the result is being withheld — and when it fills, it fills whichever way the market went. The full scoreboard publishes every graded leg against the naive baseline that every unlock gets absorbed.

How this reading of KARD could be wrong

The lock-up period is restated 3 times in this prospectus. Issuers repeat the clause on the cover, in the summary, in the risk factors and in the underwriting section, and the wording is not always identical. The parser resolved them to one period; if a reader finds a restatement that disagrees, the quote above is the one it used.

The volume is a vendor's, not ours. KARD is not in our own price table, so average daily volume comes from yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table). Vendor bars for recently listed symbols are the ones most likely to be wrong.

Only 20 sessions of volume history. This is a recent IPO, and early volume is dominated by the offering itself. An average over 20 sessions of a stock that has barely traded is the weakest input on the page, and absorb days inherits every bit of that weakness.

The parser can misread a filing. That is why every number here is printed next to the words it came from. Earlier versions of this parser read the underwriters' 30-day over-allotment window as a 30-day lock-up on five deals, and double-counted one issuer's share total because the offering summary appears on both the cover and in the summary section.

Also unlocking in 2026-12 (13)

Lock-ups cluster, because IPOs cluster: these priced in the same window as KARD and come free in the same month. Several heavy releases landing together is a different situation from one.

DealExpiryShares freeAbsorb days
LFTO
Liftoff Mobile, Inc.
2026-12-015.0M7.4 sessions
INIO
INNIO N.V.
2026-12-01——
SSMR
Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co
2026-12-02——
QNT
Quantinuum Inc.
2026-12-02233.0M95.0 sessions
EROC
ERock, Inc.
2026-12-07——
PBLS
Parabilis Medicines, Inc.
2026-12-08——
LIME
Neutron Holdings, Inc.
2026-12-09——
SPCX
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP
2026-12-0911.96B109 sessions
FCBM
First Carolina Financial Services, Inc.
2026-12-1520.4M121 sessions
DPC
DPC Holdings Ltd
2026-12-23——
SIND
Sinda Ltd.
2026-12-26——
BSP
Bending Spoons S.p.A.
2026-12-28——
ITG
ITG, Inc./DE/
2026-12-29101.7M129 sessions

Learn to read these clauses yourself

The flow arithmetic on this page — shares unlocking divided by average daily volume, and why the clause has to be read rather than assumed — taught step by step, free.

Lesson 6 →

Radar built 2026-11-07 from EDGAR full-text search over 424B4 filings · all 80 parsed lock-ups and the scoreboard · KARD's prospectus on EDGAR · what funds carried these companies at before listing