When SPCX insiders can sell
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP · IPO prospectus filed 2026-06-12 · Single cliff · 180-day lock-up
That is the calendar date the clause computes to, counted from the prospectus date. It is the only date computable without knowing a future earnings date, which is why everything that could pull it earlier is printed below it on this page rather than folded into it.
How much stock, against how much trades
"Absorb days" is the shares coming free divided by average daily volume: how many full sessions of SPCX's entire turnover the release amounts to. It is a ratio, not a forecast — it does not know who wants to sell, and a founder with no intention of selling counts the same as a fund that has been waiting six months.
Exactly 11,964,754,065 shares, against 109,462,900 shares a day averaged over 20 sessions. Volume source: yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table), through 2026-11-06. Dollar volume $14697.6M a day. Heaviest third of the cohort.
Our call: Pressure
SPCX sits in the heaviest third of a cohort of 47 deals — lightest third at or below 54.1 sessions, heaviest at or above 109 sessions. The call is cohort-relative, not a fixed threshold, so the same absorb-day figure could read differently against a different month's IPOs. Expected excess return against SPY: negative.
Issued 2026-10-31, 39 days before the expiry, as call SPCX-2026-12-09. The ledger is append-only and lives in git, so the date on that row cannot be moved after the fact — which is the entire reason these calls are published ahead of the event instead of tested afterwards.
The lock-up clause, in the issuer's words
Every other free lock-up calendar tells you 180 days and moves on. This is the actual sentence the date above was computed from, so that if the words do not support the number, the number is wrong and the filing is one click away.
…into, exchangeable for or that represent the right to receive our common stock, are subject to a variety of other terms governing restrictions on the sale, short sale, transfer, hedging, pledging, or other disposition of their interests in our equity, pursuant to a number of different agreements and arrangements, for 180 days from the date of this prospectus (subject to timed automatic releases). See the section titled "Underwriting—Lock-up Agreements" for more information about these Transfer restrictions and related releases and exceptions. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC may release any of the securities described above at any time, subject to applicable requirements. Registration Rights After the completion of this offering, holders of an aggregate of approximately 12.2 billion shares of our Class A common stock (including Class A common stock issuable upon conversion of Class B common stock……
Where the share count comes from
11,964,754,065 shares — derived: shares outstanding after the offering, less the shares sold in it. A count the prospectus prints and a count derived from two of its other numbers are not the same quality of claim, so which one this is gets said rather than implied.
| Shares outstanding after the offering | 12,520,309,620 |
| Shares sold in the offering | 555,555,555 |
| Underwriters' over-allotment option | 83,333,333 |
| Locked up, coming free at expiry | 11,964,754,065 |
…sdaq Texas under the symbol "SPCX." The number of shares of our Class A and Class B common stock that will be outstanding after this offering is based on 6,824,641,355 shares of Class A common stock and 5,695,668,265 shares of Class B common stock outstanding as of March 31, 2026, after giving effect to (i) the Class C Reclassification (as defined below) and (ii) the Preferred Conversion (as defined below). The amount of Class B common stock that will be outstanding after this offering includes 1,302,072,285 restricted shares of Class B common stock issued to and held of record by Mr. Musk, which may be voted by Mr. Musk, and the vesting of which is subject to the satisfaction of certain performance and other conditions. 1,000,000…
Exceptions written into the lock-up (6)
Each of these is a route by which SPCX shares can move before 2026-12-09. The 10b5-1 carve-out is the one worth reading twice: it lets insiders put a selling plan in place during the lock-up, so the first sales can be automatic and immediate rather than discretionary and later.
- 10b5-1 plan
- bona fide gift or charitable transfer
- estate planning or family transfer
- pledge as collateral
- directed share program participants
- option exercise or RSU settlement
…r any successor form thereto with respect to any of our employee benefit plans described herein, (e) the establishment or amendment of a trading plan on behalf of our shareholders, officers or directors pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act for the transfer of shares of our common stock provided that (i) such plan does not provide for the transfer of our common stock during the lock-up period (except to the extent otherwise allowed pursuant to the terms of a lock-up agreement) and (ii) to the extent a public announcement or filing under the Exchange Act, if any, is required of, or voluntarily made by, us regarding the estab…
…corporations, or other entities owned by certain qualified shareholders (as defined in the charter), including certain permitted non-for-profits as well as (v) certain transfers to bona fide trusts for the benefit of a charitable organization, contributions to which are deductible for federal income, estate, gift and generation skipping transfer tax purposes, to certain retirement accounts, and for certain estate or succession planning purposes. "Permitted Transferees" will include a transferee of shares of Class B common stock received in a Transfer that constitutes a "permitted transfer." No Preemptive or Other Rights Holders of the Company's Class A common stock, Class B common stock, and Class C common stock do not have preemptive, subscription, redemption rights, or sinking fund.
…ctions that exist, are proposed to exist or have existed or that we have entered into or propose to enter into with our directors, executive officers, holders of more than 5% of our capital stock or their affiliates and immediate family members since January 1, 2023 and where we have been or are to be a participant the amount involved exceeded or will exceed $120,000 and any of our directors, executive officers, or holders of more than 5% of our capital stock, or any immediate family member of, or persons sharing their household with, any of these individuals, had or will have a direct or indirect material interest. Note Regarding the xAI Merger On February 2, 2026, we effected the xAI Merger, pursuant to which we acquired xAI (which includes X).
The reported amounts include 237,530 shares of Class A common stock pledged as security for personal indebtedness. (2) Includes (i) 2,472,035 shares of Class A common stock and 7,113,550 shares of Class B common stock held of record by Ms. Shotwell, (ii) 1,556,055 shares of Class A common stock held of record by QM GS 2021 Exempt Trust, of which Ms. Shotwell and her spouse serve as trustees, (iii) 1,556,005 shares of Class A common stock held of record by QM RS 2021 Exempt Trust, of which Ms.
Please refer to "Underwriting—Directed Share Program." Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") nor any state securities commission has approved or disapproved of these securities or passed on the adequacy or accuracy of this prospectus. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense. The shares of Class A common stock will be ready for delivery on or about June 15, 2026. Joint Book-Running Managers Goldman Sachs & Co.
…ring and other information based thereon in this prospectus does not reflect any of the following 133,793,640 shares of Class A common stock and 358,169,015 shares of Class B common stock, in each case issuable upon the exercise of outstanding stock options granted under the Equity Plans (as defined below) that were outstanding as of March 31, 2026, with a weighted-average exercise price of $27.65 per share of Class A common stock and $8.22 per share of Class B common stock 128,455,370 shares of Class A common stock and 931,450 shares of Class B common stock, in each case issuable upon the vesting and settlement of restricted stock…
How this call scored
Not yet graded. Scoring needs the close on or before 2026-12-09 plus the next 5 and then 21 sessions, so a result cannot exist before those sessions have happened. This space is empty because the clock has not run, not because the result is being withheld — and when it fills, it fills whichever way the market went. The full scoreboard publishes every graded leg against the naive baseline that every unlock gets absorbed.
How this reading of SPCX could be wrong
The lock-up period is restated 9 times in this prospectus. Issuers repeat the clause on the cover, in the summary, in the risk factors and in the underwriting section, and the wording is not always identical. The parser resolved them to one period; if a reader finds a restatement that disagrees, the quote above is the one it used.
The volume is a vendor's, not ours. SPCX is not in our own price table, so average daily volume comes from yahoo-finance2 daily bars (symbol not in our price table). Vendor bars for recently listed symbols are the ones most likely to be wrong.
Only 20 sessions of volume history. This is a recent IPO, and early volume is dominated by the offering itself. An average over 20 sessions of a stock that has barely traded is the weakest input on the page, and absorb days inherits every bit of that weakness.
The parser can misread a filing. That is why every number here is printed next to the words it came from. Earlier versions of this parser read the underwriters' 30-day over-allotment window as a 30-day lock-up on five deals, and double-counted one issuer's share total because the offering summary appears on both the cover and in the summary section.
Also unlocking in 2026-12 (13)
Lock-ups cluster, because IPOs cluster: these priced in the same window as SPCX and come free in the same month. Several heavy releases landing together is a different situation from one.
| Deal | Expiry | Shares free | Absorb days |
|---|---|---|---|
| LFTO Liftoff Mobile, Inc. | 2026-12-01 | 5.0M | 7.4 sessions |
| INIO INNIO N.V. | 2026-12-01 | — | — |
| SSMR Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co | 2026-12-02 | — | — |
| QNT Quantinuum Inc. | 2026-12-02 | 233.0M | 95.0 sessions |
| EROC ERock, Inc. | 2026-12-07 | — | — |
| PBLS Parabilis Medicines, Inc. | 2026-12-08 | — | — |
| LIME Neutron Holdings, Inc. | 2026-12-09 | — | — |
| KARD Kardigan, Inc. | 2026-12-15 | 64.3M | 124 sessions |
| FCBM First Carolina Financial Services, Inc. | 2026-12-15 | 20.4M | 121 sessions |
| DPC DPC Holdings Ltd | 2026-12-23 | — | — |
| SIND Sinda Ltd. | 2026-12-26 | — | — |
| BSP Bending Spoons S.p.A. | 2026-12-28 | — | — |
| ITG ITG, Inc./DE/ | 2026-12-29 | 101.7M | 129 sessions |
Learn to read these clauses yourself
The flow arithmetic on this page — shares unlocking divided by average daily volume, and why the clause has to be read rather than assumed — taught step by step, free.
Radar built 2026-11-07 from EDGAR full-text search over 424B4 filings · all 80 parsed lock-ups and the scoreboard · SPCX's prospectus on EDGAR · what funds carried these companies at before listing