HPE vs CSCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HPE and Cisco compete in enterprise networking (HPE Aruba vs Cisco Catalyst) but are primarily non-overlapping: HPE is an AI server and hybrid cloud infrastructure company, while Cisco is a networking software and security company transitioning to a subscription model. Both have AI tailwinds — HPE from AI server demand, Cisco from AI Ethernet networking — but their business models and risk profiles differ significantly.
HPE vs Cisco is a comparison between an infrastructure hardware company transitioning to as-a-service and a dominant networking company transitioning to software subscriptions — both narratives require execution on business model change, with Cisco's larger installed base and Splunk security franchise providing more diversified transition support.
HPE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HPE leads on both 1-year return (+109.62%) and forward P/E quality (12.81x vs 19.64x for CSCO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, HPE is growing revenue faster (40.00%), while CSCO maintains the higher operating margin (27.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +24.92% for HPE and +25.30% for CSCO.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a server and HPC infrastructure company with AI workload exposure via GPU systems and Cray
- value the GreenLake as-a-service model as a differentiated alternative to public cloud for regulated industries
- want enterprise infrastructure exposure without the networking market concentration of Cisco
- are comfortable with lower near-term margins from AI server hardware cost pass-through
- prefer the dominant enterprise networking franchise with an enormous installed base and software attach opportunity
- value Splunk's security observability platform as a major cross-sell opportunity into Cisco's customer base
- want a mature, high-free-cash-flow technology company with a growing dividend and buyback program
- are comfortable with near-term revenue headwinds from inventory digestion and the ratable revenue transition
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 61.6 | 55.4 |
| AI ranki | #129 | #229 |
| Latest closei | $51.19 | $101.61 |
| 1M returni | -26.16% | -9.44% |
| 3M returni | +1.89% | -12.30% |
| 6M returni | +78.30% | +9.69% |
| 1Y returni | +109.62% | +38.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $20.89K (+108.9%) started 2025-11-03 | $13.65K (+36.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $41.54K (+315.4%) started 2021-11-03 | $21.94K (+119.4%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $68.53K (+585.3%) started 2016-11-03 | $58.71K (+487.1%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $69.27B | $433.28B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 48.89 | 33.01 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.81 | 19.64 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 4.70 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.20 | 7.07 |
| Analyst targeti | $65.35 | $137.74 |
| Target upsidei | +24.92% | +25.30% |
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 40.00% | 17.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -30.30% | 52.00% |
| EPS growthi | -30.30% | +52.00% |
| FCF margini | +9.89% | +18.27% |
| Operating margini | 8.70% | 27.70% |
| Profit margini | 4.01% | 20.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.31% | 27.32% |
| Return on equityi | 6.31% | 27.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 1.50% |
| Payout ratioi | 28.74% | 49.85% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equityi | 84.03 | 58.73 |
| Current ratioi | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.57 | 0.65 |
Over the past year, HPE and CSCO have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +108.94% | +36.48% |
| CAGRi | +109.43% | +36.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 60.17% | 36.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.46 | 0.93 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.34 | 1.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.32% | 21.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.32% | 21.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.26% | 7.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.63% | 9.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.05% | 12.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.95% | 11.44% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +272.17% | +96.08% |
| CAGRi | +30.07% | +14.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.67% | 26.33% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.73 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.09 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.36% | 36.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.32% | 21.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.25% | 12.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.25% | 15.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.14% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.95% | 13.61% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +417.95% | +335.59% |
| CAGRi | +17.88% | +15.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.03% | 26.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.73 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.87% | 41.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.32% | 21.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.96% | 11.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.26% | 14.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.31% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.21% | 16.10% |
| Category | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | Cisco Systems, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Communication Equipment | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | HPE provides enterprise servers, storage, networking (Aruba), and the GreenLake hybrid cloud platform. AI-focused infrastructure including ProLiant GPU servers and Cray HPC systems are growing drivers. GreenLake delivers infrastructure as a service, building annual recurring revenue from enterprise and government customers who prefer consuming IT as a managed service rather than owning assets. | Cisco Systems is the dominant enterprise networking company, providing routers, switches, firewalls, wireless access points, and software-defined networking across campus, branch, data center, and service provider environments. Cisco is transitioning from hardware-led perpetual license sales to a recurring software and subscription model across Catalyst (campus), Nexus (data center), Webex (collaboration), and Splunk (security observability) platforms. AI infrastructure networking — particularly Ethernet switching for AI GPU clusters — is an emerging growth area. |
| Investor focus | Investors track GreenLake ARR growth, AI/HPC server backlog, operating margin improvement, and the pace of enterprise adoption of hybrid cloud as-a-service. | Investors focus on annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growth as the software/subscription transition progresses, Splunk integration and cross-sell into security observability, AI networking demand for Ethernet-based GPU cluster interconnect, and operating margin sustainability during the hardware-to-software transition. |
- Cray HPC systems serve strategic government and research markets with long contract lifecycles
- GreenLake creates switching costs as customers integrate their IT operations into the platform
- Aruba networking competes effectively in enterprise WLAN and campus switching with strong software attach rates
- Dominant market share in enterprise routing and switching creates an enormous installed base for software subscription attach
- Splunk acquisition adds the leading enterprise security observability platform, opening a large upsell opportunity into the security budget
- AI Ethernet networking (Nexus 9000 series) is positioned to benefit as hyperscalers explore Ethernet alternatives to InfiniBand for AI clusters
- GreenLake ARR has grown slower than initial targets, questioning the pace of enterprise as-a-service adoption
- AI server margins are compressed by GPU hardware costs, and HPE trails Dell in market share for AI PowerEdge-type systems
- Cisco and Juniper directly compete with Aruba in enterprise networking
- Product order digestion from the COVID-era supply chain surge has created a multi-quarter revenue headwind as customers work through inventory
- The software transition reduces near-term revenue recognition (ratable vs upfront), creating a period of reported revenue weakness that masks underlying health
- Juniper/HPE Aruba and Arista compete in enterprise switching; InfiniBand and RoCE compete in AI cluster networking
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