TQQQ vs SPY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TQQQ and SPY represent fundamentally different types of instruments, with TQQQ a leveraged trading vehicle designed to deliver three times the daily return of the Nasdaq-100 for short-term tactical use, while SPY is an unleveraged, broadly diversified fund tracking the S&P 500 suitable for long-term investing.
TQQQ can amplify short-term gains during strong Nasdaq-100 rallies but carries substantial compounding and volatility decay risk that makes it unsuitable for long-term holding, while SPY offers steady, unleveraged, diversified exposure appropriate for long-term wealth building. These instruments serve fundamentally different purposes and are not typically interchangeable.
SPY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TQQQ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+44.13% vs +17.28% for SPY).
- Seek short-term, amplified directional exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Index
- Understand daily leverage reset mechanics and the risk of volatility decay over longer holding periods
- Actively monitor and manage positions rather than buying and holding for the long term
- Have a high risk tolerance appropriate for leveraged trading instruments
- Want unleveraged, broadly diversified, long-term exposure to the US large-cap equity market
- Prefer a core buy-and-hold portfolio holding without compounding or decay risk
- Value extremely high liquidity and a well-established, low-cost index tracking record
- Are building wealth over a multi-year or multi-decade time horizon
| Metric | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| ETF scorei | 33.0 | 27.1 |
| Latest closei | $73.82 | $771.79 |
| 1M returni | +8.93% | +2.15% |
| 3M returni | +4.56% | +3.06% |
| 6M returni | +31.37% | +10.55% |
| 1Y returni | +44.13% | +17.28% |
The ETF score weights long-term returns and risk-adjusted performance most heavily, but still rewards low expense ratios, larger fund size, and broader diversification — so it can favor low-cost, broad, mega-cap funds over smaller thematic or actively-managed funds even when the latter have delivered stronger returns.
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.52K (+45.2%) started 2025-10-15 | $11.85K (+18.5%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $24.11K (+141.1%) started 2021-10-15 | $19.83K (+98.3%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $321.85K (+3118.5%) started 2016-10-17 | $50.5K (+405.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Expense ratioi | 0.78% | 0.09% |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $37.92B | $809.22B |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | 0.99% |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.99 | 24.50 |
| Betai | 3.74 | 1.02 |
| 52-week change | 44.13% | 17.28% |
| Metric | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y returni | +44.13% | +17.28% |
| 6M returni | +31.37% | +10.55% |
| 3M returni | +4.56% | +3.06% |
| 1M returni | +8.93% | +2.15% |
| 1Y Sharpe ratio | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| Betai | 3.74 | 1.02 |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | 0.99% |
| 5Y CAGR | +18.00% | +13.10% |
Over the past year, TQQQ and SPY have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.93), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +44.13% | +17.28% |
| CAGRi | +44.17% | +17.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.30% | 12.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.97 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | 1.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.97% | 8.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.00% | 0.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.47% | 1.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.85% | 2.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.28% | 2.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.97% | 3.82% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +128.77% | +85.07% |
| CAGRi | +18.00% | +13.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 68.24% | 17.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | 0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.66% | 24.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.00% | 0.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.08% | 5.56% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 42.38% | 8.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.31% | 5.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.64% | 11.50% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2948.06% | +325.53% |
| CAGRi | +40.77% | +15.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.78% | 17.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.78 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.11 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.66% | 33.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.00% | 0.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.08% | 4.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.67% | 7.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.47% | 10.94% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 44.80% | 17.97% |
| Category | TQQQ | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Fund name | ProShares UltraPro QQQ | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust |
| Type | ETF | ETF |
| Expense ratioi | 0.78% | 0.09% |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $37.92B | $809.22B |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | 0.99% |
- Provides amplified short-term exposure to Nasdaq-100 index movements for traders seeking magnified directional bets over brief holding periods
- Daily rebalancing mechanism accurately delivers approximately three times the single-day return of its underlying index before fees
- High trading liquidity and an active options market make it accessible for tactical traders executing short-duration strategies
- Unleveraged, broad diversification across 500 large-cap companies makes it suitable for long-term buy-and-hold investment strategies
- Extremely high trading liquidity and a well-established options market make it a core holding for both long-term investors and traders
- No compounding or volatility decay risk since it does not use daily-reset leverage, allowing returns to track the underlying index consistently over any holding period
- Daily leverage reset causes compounding effects, or volatility decay, that can cause returns over multi-day or longer periods to diverge substantially from three times the underlying index's return, especially in choppy or declining markets
- This is a trading instrument, not an operating company, and is generally unsuitable for long-term buy-and-hold investment strategies due to compounding risk
- Higher expense ratio relative to unleveraged index funds reflects the cost of maintaining daily leveraged derivative exposure
- As a market-cap-weighted index fund, performance is influenced disproportionately by its largest holdings, including mega-cap technology companies
- Provides no amplified exposure, meaning returns will be more modest than leveraged alternatives during strong bull market rallies
- Concentration in large-cap US equities means it does not provide exposure to the specific Nasdaq-100 technology tilt of leveraged technology-focused instruments
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