Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis 2026

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$432.51
as of 2026-10-29
+120.0% (52-week)50D MA $310.96  |  200D MA $237.88

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
72
Strong
Price CAGR
30.2%
1Y Return
+133.0%
Analyst Upside
-29.0%
Rev Growth
53.7%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

MPC Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how MPC's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$154.15B
Cost of Revenue
-$134.39B
Gross Profit
$19.76B12.8% margin
Operating Expenses
-$0
Operating Income
$20.90B13.6% margin
Tax & Other
-$12.35B
Net Income
$8.55B5.5% margin
Gross Margin
12.8%
Operating Margin
13.6%
Net Margin
5.5%
EBITDA Margin
5.8%

Key Financial Metrics

Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at a trailing P/E of 12.79x, generates $9.25B in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 133.33, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 42.1% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.

Market Cap
$103.58B
Enterprise Value
$84.19B
P/E (Trailing)
12.79
P/E (Forward)
11.45
PEG Ratio
1.83
EV / EBITDA
10.60
Price / Sales
0.36
Price / Book
3.02
Revenue
$154.15B
Revenue Growth
53.7%
Earnings Growth
348.0%
EBITDA
$7.94B
Gross Margin
12.8%
Operating Margin
13.6%
Net Margin
5.5%
Return on Equity
42.1%
Return on Assets
8.7%
Free Cash Flow
$9.25B
Total Cash
$3.81B
Total Debt
$32.14B
Debt / Equity
133.33
Current Ratio
1.25
Quick Ratio
0.86
Beta
0.51
Dividend Yield
1.1%
Payout Ratio
13.6%
Insider Ownership
0.3%
Inst. Ownership
79.7%
Short % Float
2.7%
Book Value / Share
$67.41

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

20 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation currently lean toward a Buy rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $324.56 (-25.0% vs the current price). Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.

Consensus RatingBuy(20 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$142.00-67.2%
Mean Target$324.56-25.0% upside
High Target$187.00+-56.8%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for MPC

We use 1 valuation model to estimate MPC's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.

Technical Price Signals

MPC is currently in a golden cross pattern, trading above its 50-day average of $310.96 and above its 200-day average of $237.88. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.

Current Price
$432.51
50-Day MA
$310.96
▲ Price above
200-Day MA
$237.88
▲ Price above
Golden Cross Pattern
Price above both MAs — bullish signal
Read the full MPC in-depth report
Seven-method valuation, AI Score, blended price target, and a 5-year Monte Carlo simulation for MPC.

Compare MPC with Peers

VLO vs MPCValero Energy vs Marathon Petroleum — Two Independent R
MPC vs CVXMarathon Petroleum vs Chevron — Refining Scale vs Integ
MPC vs XOMMarathon Petroleum vs Exxon Mobil — Refining and Midstr
MPC vs NUEMarathon Petroleum vs Nucor — Refining Scale vs Domesti
MPC vs FANGMarathon Petroleum vs Diamondback Energy — Refining Sca
MPC vs PSXMarathon Petroleum vs Phillips 66 — Refiner vs Integrat

Further Reading

Research and guides that put MPC’s numbers in context — how to read the filings behind them, and the frameworks we use to score them.

Market TheoryWe Backtested 929 Insider Cluster Buys — The Signal Everyone Trusts Loses to the S&P 500Fundamentals58% of Insider Selling Is Noise — How to Find the Part That MattersMarket TheoryThe Stock-Split Pop Is a Myth: What 39 Real Splits Actually DidMarket Theory10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High: What 5.2% Means for Stocks

More Energy Stock Analysis

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Data sources: Financial metrics and market data sourced from company SEC filings, earnings releases, and investor relations disclosures. Price data, analyst consensus targets, and fundamental financials provided by financial market data providers. ETF data sourced from official fund prospectuses and index provider publications. AI scores and price targets are proprietary estimates — see our Methodology and Disclaimer for details.
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