SFNC vs OFG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SFNC (Simmons First National) and OFG (OFG Bancorp) are both regional banks with focused geographic strategies — Simmons is a multi-state South/Midwest regional bank built through acquisitions of community banks across Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, and neighboring states, while OFG Bancorp is the dominant Puerto Rico consumer and commercial bank benefiting from the island's post-PROMESA and post-Hurricane Maria economic recovery.
SFNC vs OFG is acquisition-driven multi-state regional bank with South/Midwest agricultural and commercial lending (Simmons's cross-state diversification, agricultural expertise, and integration track record — acquisition integration risk and NIM compression) versus Puerto Rico-focused bank benefiting from island economic recovery (OFG's auto loan growth, competitive position improvement from weaker competitor exits, and federal reconstruction spending tailwind — Puerto Rico population decline and geographic concentration risk).
OFG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. OFG leads on both 1-year return (+19.78%) and forward P/E quality (10.29x vs 10.30x for SFNC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, SFNC is growing revenue faster (14.30%), while OFG maintains the higher operating margin (43.32%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SFNC (+10.28%) than for OFG (+7.19%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified South/Midwest regional banking exposure through an acquisition-active community bank consolidator with expanding multi-state branch network and agricultural lending specialization
- Value Simmons's track record of acquiring community banks and capturing cost synergies through technology and back-office consolidation
- Accept acquisition integration execution risk in exchange for growth potential through continued community bank consolidation in underpenetrated regional markets
- Want Puerto Rico banking exposure through the island's post-PROMESA debt restructuring and federal reconstruction spending recovery that has meaningfully improved the economic environment
- Value OFG's auto loan and consumer lending dominance in a captive island market where residents have limited transportation alternatives to personal vehicles
- Believe Puerto Rico's stabilized government finances (post-PROMESA restructuring) and federal FEMA/infrastructure investment create multi-year loan growth and asset quality improvement
| Metric | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.6 | 42.0 |
| AI ranki | #3180 | #978 |
| Latest closei | $22.89 | $52.50 |
| 1M returni | +0.23% | +1.72% |
| 6M returni | +23.16% | +37.70% |
| 1Y returni | +17.10% | +19.78% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.21K (+22.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.25K (+22.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $12.54K (+25.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $29.55K (+195.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $18.85K (+88.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $82.71K (+727.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.28B | $2.23B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 10.40 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.30 | 10.29 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 35.45 | 3.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $25.00 | $56.50 |
| Target upsidei | +10.28% | +7.19% |
| Metric | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.30% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 7.00% | 20.90% |
| EPS growthi | +7.00% | +20.90% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 38.31% | 43.32% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | 33.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | -9.94% | 16.08% |
| Return on equityi | -9.94% | 16.08% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.87% | 2.59% |
| Payout ratioi | 66.54% | 25.64% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 11 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, SFNC and OFG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.63), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +17.10% | +19.78% |
| CAGRi | +17.11% | +19.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.73% | 24.65% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.93 | |
| Max drawdowni | 15.27% | 16.58% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.21% | 2.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.02% | 5.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.57% | 6.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.17% | 8.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.66% | 11.39% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +0.76% | +157.84% |
| CAGRi | +0.15% | +20.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.44% | 28.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.40% | 24.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.09% | 2.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.15% | 7.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.39% | 9.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.09% | 8.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.75% | 12.85% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +28.91% | +545.75% |
| CAGRi | +2.57% | +20.51% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.94% | 38.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.11 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.16 | 0.84 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.17% | 61.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.09% | 2.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.88% | 12.68% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.16% | 18.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.62% | 19.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.14% | 30.09% |
| Category | SFNC | OFG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simmons First National Corporation | OFG Bancorp |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, operating Simmons Bank with branches across Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Colorado, and other states. Simmons has grown primarily through acquisitions, purchasing community banks across the South and Midwest to build a multi-state regional banking franchise. Simmons provides commercial banking, consumer banking, mortgage origination, wealth management, and agricultural lending services. Agricultural lending is a notable specialty given Simmons's Arkansas roots and rural Midwest footprint. | OFG Bancorp (formerly Oriental Financial Group) is a Puerto Rico-based financial holding company operating Oriental Bank, one of Puerto Rico's largest banks. OFG provides commercial banking, consumer banking (auto loans, mortgages, personal loans), and US Virgin Islands banking services. OFG has benefited from the Puerto Rico market recovery following the island's bankruptcy proceedings (PROMESA restructuring completed 2022) and Hurricane Maria recovery, which drove significant federal infrastructure spending through the island. OFG has grown market share as weaker Puerto Rico competitors exited or reduced operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Simmons's net interest margin, loan growth, non-interest income, efficiency ratio, and integration execution of acquired banks into the Simmons platform — particularly whether acquisitions deliver the expected cost synergies and revenue enhancements. | Investors track OFG's loan growth (particularly auto and commercial loans in Puerto Rico's recovering economy), net interest margin, asset quality, and how Puerto Rico's federal recovery spending and PROMESA debt restructuring completion affect the island's economic activity. |
- Multi-state regional diversification reduces geographic concentration risk from any single state's economic downturn
- Agricultural lending expertise is a differentiated specialty serving rural Arkansas and Midwest farming communities underserved by large national banks
- Acquisition-driven growth strategy has expanded from a single-state Arkansas bank to a multi-state franchise with scale advantages in technology and back-office operations
- Puerto Rico market recovery provides multi-year economic tailwind from federal reconstruction spending and PROMESA debt restructuring completion that stabilized government finances
- Competitive position improved as weaker Puerto Rico banks reduced their presence or exited, leaving OFG with market share gains in a recovering market
- Auto loan specialization serves Puerto Rico's vehicle-dependent population where public transit is limited, creating consistent consumer loan demand
- Acquisition integration risk — frequent acquisitions create integration complexity; cultural and technology system integration challenges can disrupt service quality and cost structure
- Net interest margin compression in low-rate or flat yield curve environments reduces Simmons's primary revenue driver
- Commercial real estate concentration typical of community bank acquisition targets creates credit quality risk in economic downturns
- Puerto Rico's structural economic challenges — population decline, emigration to the U.S. mainland, and a shrinking labor force limit long-term loan growth potential
- Concentration risk in a single island economy creates vulnerability to hurricanes, federal policy changes, and economic shocks that affect the entire market simultaneously
- Government-related credit exposure — Puerto Rico's government banking relationships carry credit quality considerations given the island's prior debt restructuring
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