VRT vs VST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
VRT and VST both benefit from AI electricity demand but they capture it in fundamentally different currencies. Vertiv sells hardware into each data centre build, so its revenue scales with construction activity. Vistra sells the electricity itself, so it monetises the demand for power over long contract lives and benefits from higher power prices. Vertiv is a capital-spending story; Vistra is a commodity and contracting story.
Use this VRT vs VST comparison to decide whether you want to be paid when data centres are built or when they run. Equipment demand front-runs the buildout and can stall abruptly. Generation earns through the asset's operating life but carries commodity price and regulatory exposure that equipment makers do not have.
VRT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VRT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+78.84% vs -31.48%), though VST has the better forward P/E setup (13.57x vs 28.21x for VRT). VRT leads on both revenue growth (24.10%) and operating margin (20.36%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VST (+54.67%) than for VRT (+31.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the construction phase of AI data centre growth
- Believe liquid cooling adoption will lift both revenue and margins
- Prefer a business with no commodity price exposure
- Accept customer concentration and a short, sentiment-sensitive order cycle
- Want to own scarce existing generation capacity, including nuclear, rather than equipment
- See long-term data centre power agreements as a way to lock in demand for years
- Value aggressive buybacks and cash return from a generation fleet
- Are comfortable with wholesale power price and Texas regulatory exposure
| Metric | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 72.9 | 53.5 |
| AI ranki | #27 | #289 |
| Latest closei | $253.28 | $138.46 |
| 1M returni | -3.99% | -1.12% |
| 6M returni | +0.88% | -10.95% |
| 1Y returni | +78.84% | -31.48% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.12K (+81.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $6.87K (-31.3%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $104.88K (+948.8%) started 2021-09-27 | $94.74K (+847.4%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $253.53K (+2435.3%) started 2018-08-02 | $170.28K (+1602.8%) started 2016-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $98.83B | $47.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 57.95 | 23.68 |
| Forward P/Ei | 28.21 | 13.57 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.63 | 3.63 |
| Analyst targeti | $338.15 | $217.58 |
| Target upsidei | +31.73% | +54.67% |
| Metric | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.10% | -5.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 53.00% | -6.20% |
| EPS growthi | +53.00% | -6.20% |
| FCF margini | +23.49% | +0.19% |
| Operating margini | 20.36% | 13.77% |
| Profit margini | 15.09% | 11.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 43.94% | 42.96% |
| Return on equityi | 43.94% | 42.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.10% | 0.65% |
| Payout ratioi | 5.09% | 15.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.08 | 1.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.17 | 373.28 |
| Current ratioi | 1.38 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.95 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, VRT and VST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +81.21% | -31.33% |
| CAGRi | +81.37% | -31.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 65.97% | 48.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.17 | -0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.76 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.72% | 36.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.68% | 34.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.48% | 22.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.52% | 24.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.26% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.94% | 14.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +948.78% | +774.65% |
| CAGRi | +60.10% | +54.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 64.05% | 48.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.00 | 1.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.43 | 1.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.25% | 48.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.68% | 36.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.43% | 12.32% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.50% | 16.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 36.74% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.58% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2435.34% | +1113.33% |
| CAGRi | +48.70% | +28.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.40% | 42.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.92 | 0.70 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.25% | 53.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.68% | 36.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.58% | 14.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.94% | 18.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 36.74% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.70% | 32.76% |
| Category | VRT | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vertiv Holdings Co | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Industrials | Utilities |
| Industry | Electrical Equipment & Parts | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | Supplier of data centre power and thermal management equipment, including uninterruptible power supplies, power distribution and busway, and liquid cooling systems for high-density AI racks, plus an attached service business. | Independent power producer operating a large generation fleet spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal, and solar, combined with a substantial retail electricity business. Concentrated in Texas and PJM markets and pursuing long-term power supply agreements with data centre operators. |
| Investor focus | Hyperscaler capital spending, orders and book-to-bill, liquid cooling mix, and margin durability as volumes rise. | Wholesale power prices and capacity auction outcomes, nuclear fleet performance, data centre power purchase agreements, and shareholder returns through buybacks. |
- Sells equipment required for every high-density AI deployment, giving unit-level exposure to rack growth
- Service and spares revenue on a growing installed base is recurring and higher margin
- Liquid cooling positions it in the fastest-growing part of data centre infrastructure
- Owns the scarce asset in the AI power story: existing dispatchable and carbon-free generation that can be contracted now
- Retail electricity business provides a natural hedge against wholesale price swings
- Nuclear capacity is attractive to hyperscalers seeking round-the-clock carbon-free supply
- Concentrated hyperscale customer base with strong purchasing leverage
- Order book can turn quickly if AI capital spending pauses
- No commodity hedge: demand is entirely capital-spending driven
- Earnings remain tied to volatile wholesale power and natural gas prices
- Heavy exposure to Texas market design and regulatory decisions
- Plant outages at large nuclear or gas units directly reduce output and earnings
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