NVO vs AMGN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVO and AMGN are both large biopharmaceutical companies with opposite portfolio shapes. Novo Nordisk is concentrated in diabetes and obesity, which has driven exceptional growth but makes competitive dynamics in one category decisive. Amgen is diversified across many therapeutic areas with steadier but slower growth, a larger dividend commitment, and biosimilar erosion to manage. Concentration with growth against diversification with income.
Use this NVO vs AMGN comparison to decide how much single-category risk you want. Novo's outcome is largely determined by how the obesity market's share, pricing, and capacity play out. Amgen's outcome depends on many smaller things going reasonably well, which produces a narrower range of outcomes in both directions.
NVO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMGN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+48.49% vs -27.31%), though NVO has the better forward P/E setup (1.76x vs 15.46x for AMGN). On fundamentals, AMGN is growing revenue faster (9.50%), while NVO maintains the higher operating margin (42.54%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVO (+19.57%) than for AMGN (+2.83%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to the diabetes and obesity treatment market
- Value manufacturing scale as a durable competitive advantage
- Accept that competitive share shifts in one category drive the shares
- Prefer growth and high margins over portfolio breadth
- Prefer diversification across multiple therapeutic areas
- Want a reliable and growing dividend from a profitable biotech
- Value rare disease assets as durable, less price-sensitive revenue
- Accept slower growth and biosimilar erosion in exchange for stability
| Metric | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.1 | 49.2 |
| AI ranki | #1088 | #535 |
| Latest closei | $38.80 | $414.61 |
| 1M returni | -17.78% | -5.84% |
| 6M returni | +13.03% | +18.88% |
| 1Y returni | -27.31% | +48.49% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.63K (-23.7%) started 2025-09-25 | $15.29K (+52.9%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $9.89K (-1.1%) started 2021-09-27 | $24.92K (+149.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $28.59K (+185.9%) started 2016-09-26 | $41.89K (+318.9%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $171.37B | $204.01B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.72 | 23.42 |
| Forward P/Ei | 1.76 | 15.46 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.52 | 4.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.81 | 6.49 |
| Analyst targeti | $46.39 | $388.03 |
| Target upsidei | +19.57% | +2.83% |
| Metric | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.10% | 9.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -20.60% | 64.90% |
| EPS growthi | -20.60% | +64.90% |
| FCF margini | +11.44% | +22.69% |
| Operating margini | 42.54% | 35.55% |
| Profit margini | 35.35% | 22.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | 59.81% | 91.47% |
| Return on equityi | 59.81% | 91.47% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.63% | 2.64% |
| Payout ratioi | 44.46% | 60.87% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 7 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Debt/equityi | 63.33 | 490.28 |
| Current ratioi | 0.87 | 1.37 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 0.95 |
Over the past year, NVO and AMGN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -27.31% | +52.89% |
| CAGRi | -27.32% | +52.98% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.14% | 29.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.56 | 1.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.74 | 2.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.67% | 16.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.33% | 6.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.93% | 5.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.67% | 7.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 10.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.95% | 15.03% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -12.17% | +119.39% |
| CAGRi | -2.57% | +17.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.08% | 24.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.02 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.70% | 24.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.40% | 6.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.72% | 8.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.83% | 10.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.83% | 10.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.45% | 15.03% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +120.61% | +210.73% |
| CAGRi | +8.24% | +12.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.82% | 25.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.70% | 24.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.40% | 6.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.27% | 8.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.29% | 10.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.83% | 10.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.45% | 15.79% |
| Category | NVO | AMGN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Novo Nordisk A/S | Amgen Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Danish pharmaceutical company focused on diabetes and obesity, built around its semaglutide franchise in injectable and oral forms, with a long-established insulin business and next-generation obesity candidates in development. | Diversified biotechnology company spanning cardiovascular, bone health, inflammation, oncology, and rare disease, with a biosimilars business and obesity candidates in clinical development. Expanded significantly through the Horizon Therapeutics acquisition. |
| Investor focus | GLP-1 prescription share, manufacturing capacity, pricing and reimbursement, oral obesity uptake, and pipeline readouts. | Rare disease growth, biosimilar erosion on mature products, obesity pipeline data, debt reduction, and dividend growth. |
- Dominant position in one of the largest new therapeutic categories in decades
- Peptide manufacturing scale that competitors need years and heavy capital to match
- Very high margins and strong cash generation from the core franchise
- Diversification across many therapeutic areas limits damage from any single product setback
- Substantial free cash flow supporting a long-standing, growing dividend
- Rare disease portfolio provides high-value, durable revenue
- Concentration in a single therapeutic area makes competitive share shifts unusually consequential
- Pricing and reimbursement pressure is intensifying as volumes grow
- Pipeline setbacks have caused severe share price reactions
- Mature products facing biosimilar and generic competition
- Elevated debt from the Horizon acquisition constrains flexibility
- Slower overall growth than a company riding a single expanding category
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